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Core Employment-To-Population Ratio Shows Labor Markets Worse Than Jobless Rate Suggests - Investors.com
Core 25-54 Employment Rates Still Near Historic Lows
By DAVID HOGBERGDAVID HOGBERG
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
The unemployment rate rose slightly to 8.2% in May, holding above 8% for the 40th straight month, the Labor Department reported Friday. But actual employment rates of core working age Americans suggests the true jobs situation is even worse.
From mid-1987 until the Great Recession, the employment-to-population ratio of 25-54-year-olds usually ranged from 78.5% to 80%. It never fell below 78.2% even during the 1990-1991 and 2001 slumps.
But now, nearly three years after the recession ended in June 2009, that ratio stands at just 75.7%.
"Right now this is probably a better measure than the unemployment rate," said James Sherk, senior policy analyst in labor economics at the conservative Heritage Foundation. "There are so many people dropping out of the job market and the unemployment rate, bad as it is, doesn't pick that up. The ratio gives a better idea of employment opportunities."
Added Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the liberal Economic Policy Institute, "Looking at this ratio sidesteps a lot of structural issues, like baby-boomers retiring. You are looking at prime-age workers and it gives you a better sense of the weakness in our current job market."
The jobless rate can be misleading because it only includes the share of people looking for work but don't have a job. Those not trying to get a job aren't counted as unemployed. And the labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in decades.
The number of people not in the labor force has increased nearly 8 million since the recession ended. If those people were included, the unemployment rate would be closer to 12%.
There are several reasons for the stunning labor force exodus. Many Americans have simply given up after months or years of seeking work. A lot of young adults have chosen to stay in college longer due to poor job prospects. Disability rolls have soared.
Demographics play a role too. The aging baby boomers are retiring in droves Meanwhile, the number of Americans aged 35-44 has fallen by 2.5 million since the end of 2007 due to the smaller Generation X cohort.
Looking at the employment rate of those aged 25-54 avoids most of those problems. It captures those who have given up job hunting while excluding most retirees and college students.
The ratio reveals a very weak job market, especially compared to just prior to the housing collapse and the Great Recession.
In January 2008, when nonfarm payrolls peaked, the 25-54 employment-to-population ratio was 80%. It then began a precipitous decline to 75.9% in June 2009. Although the recession supposedly ended that month, the ratio kept falling to 74.7% in December 2009, the lowest since 1984. (Long-term comparisons are difficult because the mass entry of women into the workforce was still underway in 1984.) It hit that nadir again in November 2010.
Why has core working age employment been so stubbornly weak?
Both Shierholz and Sherk agree the housing crisis and the Great Recession caused the initial drop. They differ as to why it has not improved.
"We've seen a massive drop in the demand for work to be done," said Shierholz. "People saw that they were less wealthy after the housing bubble burst and they pulled back on consumption. Then businesses saw they didn't have demand for their goods and services and they pulled back on investment. With less demand for goods and services, businesses shed employees."
But Sherk argues that Obama Administration policies have had a lot to do with the depressed labor market.
"The new laws and regulations are creating a great deal of uncertainty among businesses," he said. "Banks are reluctant to lend until they know what regulations will be coming from Dodd-Frank. And even some Federal Reserve members have said they've spoken with businesses that don't know what their health care costs will be under ObamaCare. Until they know, they aren't going to be hiring."
In the last several months the core employment-to-population ratio has improved, rising from 74.8% in October 2011 in part due to an unseasonably warm winter. But that may prove a temporary uptick, with Europe's debt crisis intensifying again and growth rates in China and other major emerging markets slowing significantly.