Granted it's early, but this is interesting. There are a lot of links. Real Clear Politics, scroll down a tad: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/commentary.html#6_7_04_1010 CALCULATING RASMUSSEN: ***Warning: we're about to engange in some serious speculation. All caveats to state polling data this far out from the election apply. In other words, taking any of this stuff too seriously until after Labor Day would be a mistake.*** As many of you know, Scott Rasmussen has unleashed a torrent of state polls over the past week, with more coming out this afternoon. So far, Rasmussen has surveyed eight battleground states (AR, ME, MI, MN, MO, OH, OR, & PA) and 11 non-battleground states (AL, CA, GA, IL, NJ, NY, NC, OK, SC, TX, & VA). For fun, I threw his results into the Wall Street Journal's new Electoral College Calculator and got the following tally: Bush 255, Kerry 199. If you look Rasmussen's results in the battleground states, however, you see that three of the eight show a one-point margin (MO, OR, & PA) and one of them shows a two-point lead (OH). All four are currently in Bush's column but could easily go to Kerry, which would yield an electoral total of Kerry 258, Bush 196. But going back, if you take Rasmussen's recent results as spot on (see the warning at the beginning of this post) and work from a base EC tally of 255 Bush and 199 Kerry, then add in the remaining battleground states based on the most recent legitimate poll (which excludes Zogby's online stuff) it would go like this: Arizona to Bush, Iowa to Kerry, New Hampshire to Kerry, Washington to Kerry, West Virginia to Bush. Nevada, New Mexico and Florida are too close to call - but they wouldn't matter anyway because you'd already have a total of Bush 270, Kerry 231. The linchpin to this whole scenario is Pennsylvania, where Rasmussen has Bush ahead by a point but other recent surveys have shown Kerry ahead by 3-5 points. If Kerry wins PA, the tally moves to Kerry 252, Bush 249. Nevada and New Mexico remain irrelevant, and Florida becomes ground zero - again. One final iteration to this scenario - which isn't very farfetched at all - is that in addition to winning Pennsylvania Kerry also picks up Oregon, Nevada, and New Mexico but loses Florida. The result: Bush 269, Kerry 269.