Ulcer Time

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Annie, Jun 7, 2004.

  1. Annie
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    Annie Diamond Member

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    Granted it's early, but this is interesting. There are a lot of links. Real Clear Politics, scroll down a tad: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/commentary.html#6_7_04_1010



    CALCULATING RASMUSSEN: ***Warning: we're about to engange in some serious speculation. All caveats to state polling data this far out from the election apply. In other words, taking any of this stuff too seriously until after Labor Day would be a mistake.***

    As many of you know, Scott Rasmussen has unleashed a torrent of state polls over the past week, with more coming out this afternoon.

    So far, Rasmussen has surveyed eight battleground states (AR, ME, MI, MN, MO, OH, OR, & PA) and 11 non-battleground states (AL, CA, GA, IL, NJ, NY, NC, OK, SC, TX, & VA).

    For fun, I threw his results into the Wall Street Journal's new Electoral College Calculator and got the following tally: Bush 255, Kerry 199.

    If you look Rasmussen's results in the battleground states, however, you see that three of the eight show a one-point margin (MO, OR, & PA) and one of them shows a two-point lead (OH). All four are currently in Bush's column but could easily go to Kerry, which would yield an electoral total of Kerry 258, Bush 196.

    But going back, if you take Rasmussen's recent results as spot on (see the warning at the beginning of this post) and work from a base EC tally of 255 Bush and 199 Kerry, then add in the remaining battleground states based on the most recent legitimate poll (which excludes Zogby's online stuff) it would go like this: Arizona to Bush, Iowa to Kerry, New Hampshire to Kerry, Washington to Kerry, West Virginia to Bush.

    Nevada, New Mexico and Florida are too close to call - but they wouldn't matter anyway because you'd already have a total of Bush 270, Kerry 231.

    The linchpin to this whole scenario is Pennsylvania, where Rasmussen has Bush ahead by a point but other recent surveys have shown Kerry ahead by 3-5 points. If Kerry wins PA, the tally moves to Kerry 252, Bush 249. Nevada and New Mexico remain irrelevant, and Florida becomes ground zero - again.

    One final iteration to this scenario - which isn't very farfetched at all - is that in addition to winning Pennsylvania Kerry also picks up Oregon, Nevada, and New Mexico but loses Florida. The result: Bush 269, Kerry 269.
     
  2. Merlin1047
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    Merlin1047 Senior Member

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    Let's hope that this particular scenario does not play out. Don't think I could stand another round of hanging chads. Although I understand they are going to touch screen voting. That means we'll have to see what part of the screen was drooled on. If someone's dentures fell onto the screen - is that an automatic vote for kerry?
     
  3. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    I dont think wed have to worry about hanging chads. If there was a tie in the electorial votes then the matter would go to GOP congress and Bush would win. Of course wed have to listen to four more years of libs whining that Bush wasnt elected. But im not worried that that scenario will happen.
     
  4. tpahl
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    tpahl Member

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    I think in the coming months we are going to see the http://www.badnarik.com factor play a major role in the shape of this election changing nearly all of those states in some way or another.

    Travis
     
  5. dilloduck
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    dilloduck Diamond Member

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    Been thinkin the same thing---the Dems must already have a strategy in place to fight a defeat. We already did the chad thing so I'm betting on claims of computer errors.
     
  6. MtnBiker
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    MtnBiker Senior Member

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    I very much doubt that.
     
  7. tpahl
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    tpahl Member

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    Why do you doubt it? Or are you hoping it?

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/05/21/politics/main619019.shtml

    “The Libertarians will impact Republicans more than Nader will impact Democrats,” said Lawrence Jacobs, the director of the 2004 Elections Project for the Humphrey Institute at the University of Minnesota and possibly the nation’s preeminent expert on third-party politics.
     
  8. MtnBiker
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    MtnBiker Senior Member

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    How many times has Michael Badnarik been mentioned in the media as compared to Nader?
     
  9. tpahl
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    tpahl Member

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    First of all Badnarik was considered an underdog to win the LP nomination and thus was not getting much press at all until a week ago.

    Secondly, most of Naders press has been about people not supporting him this year, not getting on the ballot in many states, and not being a major factor this year. In other words he is getting press only because he is no longer a factor.

    Badnariks press has been about how he IS a factor that the GOP would be wise not to ignore.

    Travis
     
  10. MtnBiker
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    MtnBiker Senior Member

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    Ok fine, my point is, Badnarik is not really on the radar screen. Of course 3rd party canidates will always be around and have some impact on elections, but unless Badnarik receives national attention he is likely not to recieve more than 1 or 2 percent of national vote. Perhaps more in some select states.
     

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