Trump's Poll Spike Erroneous

[Mertex]

Trump supporters were jubilant a few days ago when new poll suddenly showed Trump ahead of Hillary.....but, as it turns out.....someone skewed the polling. Too bad for Trump and his supporters....you need to work harder.


The poll of likely voters, released Tuesday by CNN/ORC, showed Trump ahead of Clinton nationwide in a four-way contest, 45 percent to 43 percent. But MSNBC host Chuck Todd explained that the poll, in his network’s estimation, may have oversampled white voters without a college degree, one of Trump’s strongest groups.

“Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters,” Todd said. “The point is, your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be, your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump, but it would be an historic shift if it occurred.”

With the numbers adjusted to reflect how the electorate shook out four years ago, Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Sept. 1-4, surveying 1,001 adults with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters.



Read more: MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead
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MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead

 

[konradv]

That's why I go with Silver. It's a poll of polls and things are starting to tighten, but Trump hasn't ever had a lead in the most conservative of their methodologies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

 

[Blackrook]

The way things are going, Hillary will have a complete physical or mental breakdown before the election, so the polls aren't what matter now.

 

[Indeependent]

Trump supporters were jubilant a few days ago when new poll suddenly showed Trump ahead of Hillary.....but, as it turns out.....someone skewed the polling. Too bad for Trump and his supporters....you need to work harder.


The poll of likely voters, released Tuesday by CNN/ORC, showed Trump ahead of Clinton nationwide in a four-way contest, 45 percent to 43 percent. But MSNBC host Chuck Todd explained that the poll, in his network’s estimation, may have oversampled white voters without a college degree, one of Trump’s strongest groups.

“Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters,” Todd said. “The point is, your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be, your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump, but it would be an historic shift if it occurred.”

With the numbers adjusted to reflect how the electorate shook out four years ago, Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Sept. 1-4, surveying 1,001 adults with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters.



Read more: MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead
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MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead

As opposed to Blacks with zero education voting for Hillary.
"Damn" that glitch in your argument.

 

[OldLady]

Trump supporters were jubilant a few days ago when new poll suddenly showed Trump ahead of Hillary.....but, as it turns out.....someone skewed the polling. Too bad for Trump and his supporters....you need to work harder.


The poll of likely voters, released Tuesday by CNN/ORC, showed Trump ahead of Clinton nationwide in a four-way contest, 45 percent to 43 percent. But MSNBC host Chuck Todd explained that the poll, in his network’s estimation, may have oversampled white voters without a college degree, one of Trump’s strongest groups.

“Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters,” Todd said. “The point is, your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be, your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump, but it would be an historic shift if it occurred.”

With the numbers adjusted to reflect how the electorate shook out four years ago, Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Sept. 1-4, surveying 1,001 adults with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters.



Read more: MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead
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MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead

So it wasn't a random poll? I thought polls were just you-get-who-you-get? I'm confused.

 

[konradv]

The way things are going, Hillary will have a complete physical or mental breakdown before the election, so the polls aren't what matter now.

What should matter is, why Trump is hiding his medical reports and tax returns?

 

[Mertex]

Trump supporters were jubilant a few days ago when new poll suddenly showed Trump ahead of Hillary.....but, as it turns out.....someone skewed the polling. Too bad for Trump and his supporters....you need to work harder.


The poll of likely voters, released Tuesday by CNN/ORC, showed Trump ahead of Clinton nationwide in a four-way contest, 45 percent to 43 percent. But MSNBC host Chuck Todd explained that the poll, in his network’s estimation, may have oversampled white voters without a college degree, one of Trump’s strongest groups.

“Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters,” Todd said. “The point is, your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be, your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump, but it would be an historic shift if it occurred.”

With the numbers adjusted to reflect how the electorate shook out four years ago, Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Sept. 1-4, surveying 1,001 adults with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters.



Read more: MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead

As opposed to Blacks with zero education voting for Hillary.
"Damn" that glitch in your argument.

Except blacks don't make up the majority of Hillary's voters.......damn, that just made it rain on your parade!

 

[L.K.Eder]

Trump supporters were jubilant a few days ago when new poll suddenly showed Trump ahead of Hillary.....but, as it turns out.....someone skewed the polling. Too bad for Trump and his supporters....you need to work harder.


The poll of likely voters, released Tuesday by CNN/ORC, showed Trump ahead of Clinton nationwide in a four-way contest, 45 percent to 43 percent. But MSNBC host Chuck Todd explained that the poll, in his network’s estimation, may have oversampled white voters without a college degree, one of Trump’s strongest groups.

“Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters,” Todd said. “The point is, your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be, your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump, but it would be an historic shift if it occurred.”

With the numbers adjusted to reflect how the electorate shook out four years ago, Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Sept. 1-4, surveying 1,001 adults with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters.



Read more: MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead

So it wasn't a random poll? I thought polls were just you-get-who-you-get? I'm confused.

most serious polls use data weighting for population parameters, but NOT for party affiliation.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

The way things are going, Hillary will have a complete physical or mental breakdown before the election, so the polls aren't what matter now.

What should matter is, why Trump is hiding his medical reports and tax returns?

He said he'd release his returns as soon as Hillary releases the emails and her medical records. LOL He cornered her again

 

[Hossfly]

Trump supporters were jubilant a few days ago when new poll suddenly showed Trump ahead of Hillary.....but, as it turns out.....someone skewed the polling. Too bad for Trump and his supporters....you need to work harder.


The poll of likely voters, released Tuesday by CNN/ORC, showed Trump ahead of Clinton nationwide in a four-way contest, 45 percent to 43 percent. But MSNBC host Chuck Todd explained that the poll, in his network’s estimation, may have oversampled white voters without a college degree, one of Trump’s strongest groups.

“Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters,” Todd said. “The point is, your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be, your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump, but it would be an historic shift if it occurred.”

With the numbers adjusted to reflect how the electorate shook out four years ago, Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Sept. 1-4, surveying 1,001 adults with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters.



Read more: MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead

So it wasn't a random poll? I thought polls were just you-get-who-you-get? I'm confused.

The pollsters have access to the voter rolls and call people according to how they want the results to be. That's why most polls are skewed and inaccurate.

 

[Mertex]

The way things are going, Hillary will have a complete physical or mental breakdown before the election, so the polls aren't what matter now.

Trump has a melt down every time he goes on stage or reads a tweet about him.....he may be the one that explodes before long.

 

[Indeependent]

Trump supporters were jubilant a few days ago when new poll suddenly showed Trump ahead of Hillary.....but, as it turns out.....someone skewed the polling. Too bad for Trump and his supporters....you need to work harder.


The poll of likely voters, released Tuesday by CNN/ORC, showed Trump ahead of Clinton nationwide in a four-way contest, 45 percent to 43 percent. But MSNBC host Chuck Todd explained that the poll, in his network’s estimation, may have oversampled white voters without a college degree, one of Trump’s strongest groups.

“Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters,” Todd said. “The point is, your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be, your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump, but it would be an historic shift if it occurred.”

With the numbers adjusted to reflect how the electorate shook out four years ago, Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Sept. 1-4, surveying 1,001 adults with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters.



Read more: MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead

As opposed to Blacks with zero education voting for Hillary.
"Damn" that glitch in your argument.

Except blacks don't make up the majority of Hillary's voters.......damn, that just made it rain on your parade!

The MAJORITY of Blacks are.
Isn't it funny that you're in a structure built by some of those "uneducated" you think you're better than?

 

[Blackrook]

Mrs. Clinton is too unhealthy to run for President, and if she gets elected, she might not even survive her first term.

 

[Mertex]

The way things are going, Hillary will have a complete physical or mental breakdown before the election, so the polls aren't what matter now.

What should matter is, why Trump is hiding his medical reports and tax returns?

He said he'd release his returns as soon as Hillary releases the emails and her medical records. LOL He cornered her again

Hillary isn't holding any e-mails....remember....the FBI took hold of them, and she has released more medical information than necessary....but releasing tax returns is a tradition that goes back a long time.....what is Trump hiding?

He should release his tax returns because we know that his uneducated and uninformed supporters don't care if he has donated money to Russia, if he has avoided paying taxes for years and whether or not he is lying about his fortunes....so what has he got to lose?

 

[SassyIrishLass]

MSNBC trying to pacify the left loons. I don't recall the nitwits whining about Reuters bias polling.

 

[OldLady]

The way things are going, Hillary will have a complete physical or mental breakdown before the election, so the polls aren't what matter now.

What should matter is, why Trump is hiding his medical reports and tax returns?

The way he eats, the only thing he's got going for him is a healthy liver from staying away from alcohol.

 

[Indeependent]

Trump supporters were jubilant a few days ago when new poll suddenly showed Trump ahead of Hillary.....but, as it turns out.....someone skewed the polling. Too bad for Trump and his supporters....you need to work harder.


The poll of likely voters, released Tuesday by CNN/ORC, showed Trump ahead of Clinton nationwide in a four-way contest, 45 percent to 43 percent. But MSNBC host Chuck Todd explained that the poll, in his network’s estimation, may have oversampled white voters without a college degree, one of Trump’s strongest groups.

“Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters,” Todd said. “The point is, your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be, your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump, but it would be an historic shift if it occurred.”

With the numbers adjusted to reflect how the electorate shook out four years ago, Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Sept. 1-4, surveying 1,001 adults with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters.



Read more: MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead

As opposed to Blacks with zero education voting for Hillary.
"Damn" that glitch in your argument.

Except blacks don't make up the majority of Hillary's voters.......damn, that just made it rain on your parade!

Isn't it funny that being uneducated used to be a rationale for not giving Blacks the right to vote?

Isn't it funny what a racist you are?

 

[L.K.Eder]

Trump supporters were jubilant a few days ago when new poll suddenly showed Trump ahead of Hillary.....but, as it turns out.....someone skewed the polling. Too bad for Trump and his supporters....you need to work harder.


The poll of likely voters, released Tuesday by CNN/ORC, showed Trump ahead of Clinton nationwide in a four-way contest, 45 percent to 43 percent. But MSNBC host Chuck Todd explained that the poll, in his network’s estimation, may have oversampled white voters without a college degree, one of Trump’s strongest groups.

“Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters,” Todd said. “The point is, your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be, your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump, but it would be an historic shift if it occurred.”

With the numbers adjusted to reflect how the electorate shook out four years ago, Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Sept. 1-4, surveying 1,001 adults with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters.



Read more: MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead

As opposed to Blacks with zero education voting for Hillary.
"Damn" that glitch in your argument.

where is the glitch? were blacks oversampled in a poll showing hillary ahead?

 

[SassyIrishLass]

The way things are going, Hillary will have a complete physical or mental breakdown before the election, so the polls aren't what matter now.

What should matter is, why Trump is hiding his medical reports and tax returns?

He said he'd release his returns as soon as Hillary releases the emails and her medical records. LOL He cornered her again

Hillary isn't holding any e-mails....remember....the FBI took hold of them, and she has released more medical information than necessary....but releasing tax returns is a tradition that goes back a long time.....what is Trump hiding?

He should release his tax returns because we know that his uneducated and uninformed supporters don't care if he has donated money to Russia, if he has avoided paying taxes for years and whether or not he is lying about his fortunes....so what has he got to lose?

Oh BS, get informed and then comment to me, I have no patience for loony left talking points I can readily hear on CNN or MSNBC

 

[Indeependent]

Trump supporters were jubilant a few days ago when new poll suddenly showed Trump ahead of Hillary.....but, as it turns out.....someone skewed the polling. Too bad for Trump and his supporters....you need to work harder.


The poll of likely voters, released Tuesday by CNN/ORC, showed Trump ahead of Clinton nationwide in a four-way contest, 45 percent to 43 percent. But MSNBC host Chuck Todd explained that the poll, in his network’s estimation, may have oversampled white voters without a college degree, one of Trump’s strongest groups.

“Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters,” Todd said. “The point is, your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be, your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump, but it would be an historic shift if it occurred.”

With the numbers adjusted to reflect how the electorate shook out four years ago, Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Sept. 1-4, surveying 1,001 adults with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, including 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters.



Read more: MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead

As opposed to Blacks with zero education voting for Hillary.
"Damn" that glitch in your argument.

where is the glitch? were blacks oversampled in a poll showing hillary ahead?

Why do Liberals need everything explained to them?
Follow the thread where I explain why Mertex is a racist.