Trump leads when polls not skewed!

[healthmyths]

Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.

These charts are updated daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election. It is being conducted in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. For more information about the survey's methods and to download the source data please visit The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study.

Now since this poll doesn't tell us how many of the 3,000 were democrats or GOP, we can use the study done by HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate.
HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

So if as the above study of 100 different pollsters Democrats have a 5.1% advantage, Trump is WINNING by subtracting 5.1% from Hillary's 44% and you have Trump 43.4% and Hillary's 39%!

 

[Preacher]

View attachment 86123

Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.

These charts are updated daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election. It is being conducted in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. For more information about the survey's methods and to download the source data please visit The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study.

Now since this poll doesn't tell us how many of the 3,000 were democrats or GOP, we can use the study done by HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate.
HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

So if as the above study of 100 different pollsters Democrats have a 5.1% advantage, Trump is WINNING by subtracting 5.1% from Hillary's 44% and you have Trump 43.4% and Hillary's 39%!

Preaching to idiots won't change their mind. I take great pleasure knowing the tears and gnashing of teeth that's to come when Trump wins

 

[g5000]

I strongly urge you to check the electoral math.

 

[Skylar]

View attachment 86123

Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.

These charts are updated daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election. It is being conducted in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. For more information about the survey's methods and to download the source data please visit The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study.

Now since this poll doesn't tell us how many of the 3,000 were democrats or GOP, we can use the study done by HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate.
HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

So if as the above study of 100 different pollsters Democrats have a 5.1% advantage, Trump is WINNING by subtracting 5.1% from Hillary's 44% and you have Trump 43.4% and Hillary's 39%!

Preaching to idiots won't change their mind. I take great pleasure knowing the tears and gnashing of teeth that's to come when Trump wins

Speaking of 'preaching to idiots'....there's something about this 'the polls are skewed' schtick that sounds really familiar. I've heard it somewhere before........give me a minute....Almost have it.

Ah, yes! 2012

Romney winner Polls were biased!!!!

Which turned out to be laughably dogshit.

Obama will lose Big Time per Washington Post Polling data!!!

Also dogshit...

PLEASE!!! Don't change the POLLING DATA!!

Dogshit, too. Noticing the pattern yet?

If the Polls are "Skewed"

Can I get a 'Dog'? Can I get a 'Shit, Shit, Shit'?

But this time its different, huh? Did you guys learn *nothing* from 2012?

 

[bodecea]

View attachment 86123

Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.

These charts are updated daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election. It is being conducted in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. For more information about the survey's methods and to download the source data please visit The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study.

Now since this poll doesn't tell us how many of the 3,000 were democrats or GOP, we can use the study done by HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate.
HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

So if as the above study of 100 different pollsters Democrats have a 5.1% advantage, Trump is WINNING by subtracting 5.1% from Hillary's 44% and you have Trump 43.4% and Hillary's 39%!

I hope you will be around here the day after the election....it will be fun fun fun!

 

[Rambunctious]

I strongly urge you to check the electoral math

 

[Skylar]

View attachment 86123

Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.

These charts are updated daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election. It is being conducted in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. For more information about the survey's methods and to download the source data please visit The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study.

Now since this poll doesn't tell us how many of the 3,000 were democrats or GOP, we can use the study done by HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate.
HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

So if as the above study of 100 different pollsters Democrats have a 5.1% advantage, Trump is WINNING by subtracting 5.1% from Hillary's 44% and you have Trump 43.4% and Hillary's 39%!

I hope you will be around here the day after the election....it will be fun fun fun!

That's the day the 'polls are rigged' batshit is put back into storage and they bring out the 'election was rigged' batshit.

Its the tinfoil version of never wearing white after Labor Day.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Read this statement carefully, people. "The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology."

It means the UAS polled are drawn from the same 3000 people, 1/7th of them. One, we do not how the people were entered into the UAS, and even better, the link to Understand America Study above is broken.


healthmyths, of course, comes up with a mysterious poll, the web site of which is broken.

 

[buckeye45_73]

I strongly urge you to check the electoral math.

That is true...but they use polls to try and depress turnout.

 

[Skylar]

I strongly urge you to check the electoral math.

That is true...but they use polls to try and depress turnout.

Says who? In 2012 a full 19 out of 23 polling agencies inaccurately leaned to the right. By as many as 7 points.

You're simply repeating a talking point. Not actually looking into the issue.

 

[HenryBHough]

"We"

Yeah.

Right.

 

[Skylar]

"Oversampling" is a loser's whine. The Dems accused the pollsters of it in 2004. The Republicans accused the pollsters of it in 2008 and 2012.

The problem is that 'oversampling' is simply an accurate portrayal of the electorate....which tends to self identify more commonly for the party that is winning.

It didn't work for Kerry in 2004, McCain in 2008, Romney in 2012.

And it won't work for Trump in 2016.

 

[jc456]

View attachment 86123

Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.

These charts are updated daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election. It is being conducted in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. For more information about the survey's methods and to download the source data please visit The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study.

Now since this poll doesn't tell us how many of the 3,000 were democrats or GOP, we can use the study done by HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate.
HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

So if as the above study of 100 different pollsters Democrats have a 5.1% advantage, Trump is WINNING by subtracting 5.1% from Hillary's 44% and you have Trump 43.4% and Hillary's 39%!

Preaching to idiots won't change their mind. I take great pleasure knowing the tears and gnashing of teeth that's to come when Trump wins

Speaking of 'preaching to idiots'....there's something about this 'the polls are skewed' schtick that sounds really familiar. I've heard it somewhere before........give me a minute....Almost have it.

Ah, yes! 2012

Romney winner Polls were biased!!!!

Which turned out to be laughably dogshit.

Obama will lose Big Time per Washington Post Polling data!!!

Also dogshit...

PLEASE!!! Don't change the POLLING DATA!!

Dogshit, too. Noticing the pattern yet?

If the Polls are "Skewed"

Can I get a 'Dog'? Can I get a 'Shit, Shit, Shit'?

But this time its different, huh? Did you guys learn *nothing* from 2012?

so you're confirming the story, thanks,

 

[NYcarbineer]

View attachment 86123

Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.


These charts are updated daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election. It is being conducted in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. For more information about the survey's methods and to download the source data please visit The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study.

Now since this poll doesn't tell us how many of the 3,000 were democrats or GOP, we can use the study done by HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate.
HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

So if as the above study of 100 different pollsters Democrats have a 5.1% advantage, Trump is WINNING by subtracting 5.1% from Hillary's 44% and you have Trump 43.4% and Hillary's 39%!

That's the poll that has Trump winning California by 10 points.

Gee, I think we need ANOTHER 10 threads on this poll.

 

[jc456]

I strongly urge you to check the electoral math.

That is true...but they use polls to try and depress turnout.

Says who? In 2012 a full 19 out of 23 polling agencies inaccurately leaned to the right. By as many as 7 points.

You're simply repeating a talking point. Not actually looking into the issue.

again, proving the point being made. WTF is wrong with you stupid fks?

 

[Toro]

unskewedpolls.com

Successfully unskewing polls for Republicans since 2012.

 

[Skylar]

View attachment 86123

Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.

These charts are updated daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election. It is being conducted in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. For more information about the survey's methods and to download the source data please visit The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study.

Now since this poll doesn't tell us how many of the 3,000 were democrats or GOP, we can use the study done by HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate.
HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

So if as the above study of 100 different pollsters Democrats have a 5.1% advantage, Trump is WINNING by subtracting 5.1% from Hillary's 44% and you have Trump 43.4% and Hillary's 39%!

Preaching to idiots won't change their mind. I take great pleasure knowing the tears and gnashing of teeth that's to come when Trump wins

Speaking of 'preaching to idiots'....there's something about this 'the polls are skewed' schtick that sounds really familiar. I've heard it somewhere before........give me a minute....Almost have it.

Ah, yes! 2012

Romney winner Polls were biased!!!!

Which turned out to be laughably dogshit.

Obama will lose Big Time per Washington Post Polling data!!!

Also dogshit...

PLEASE!!! Don't change the POLLING DATA!!

Dogshit, too. Noticing the pattern yet?

If the Polls are "Skewed"

Can I get a 'Dog'? Can I get a 'Shit, Shit, Shit'?

But this time its different, huh? Did you guys learn *nothing* from 2012?

so you're confirming the story, thanks,

Nope. I'm citing the *exact* same claims made by your ilk in 2012. Which turned out to be a steaming pile of dogshit come election day.

'Unskewed' Pollster: 'Nate Silver Was Right, And I Was Wrong'

'Unskewed' Pollster: 'Nate Silver Was Right, And I Was Wrong'

But like a dog returning to that tasty patch of anti-freeze on the garage floor, here you are again, lapping away at the same hapless nonsense.

Good luck with that.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

The only poll that matters will be in November.

 

[bodecea]

View attachment 86123

Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.

These charts are updated daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses. The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election. It is being conducted in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. For more information about the survey's methods and to download the source data please visit The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study.

Now since this poll doesn't tell us how many of the 3,000 were democrats or GOP, we can use the study done by HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate.
HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

So if as the above study of 100 different pollsters Democrats have a 5.1% advantage, Trump is WINNING by subtracting 5.1% from Hillary's 44% and you have Trump 43.4% and Hillary's 39%!

Preaching to idiots won't change their mind. I take great pleasure knowing the tears and gnashing of teeth that's to come when Trump wins

I also hope YOU will be around here the day after the election....I will enjoy your presence then very much.

 

[Skylar]

I strongly urge you to check the electoral math.

That is true...but they use polls to try and depress turnout.

Says who? In 2012 a full 19 out of 23 polling agencies inaccurately leaned to the right. By as many as 7 points.

You're simply repeating a talking point. Not actually looking into the issue.

again, proving the point being made. WTF is wrong with you stupid fks?

And how does a bias to the right 'depress turn out'?