Statistikhengst
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http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2015_StatePRI_REP_July_28_A8WJ.pdf
1,902 LV, MoE = +/-2.2, internet (email only) poll
PRESIDENT – FLORIDA – GOP PRIMARY (St. Pete Polls)
Donald Trump 26.1%
Jeb Bush 20.0%
Unsure or Someone Else 15.9%
Scott Walker 12.2%
Marco Rubio 9.7%
Ben Carson 4.5%
Ted Cruz 4.2%
John Kasich 4.1%
Rand Paul 3.3%
Margin: Trump +6.1
That is 4 points outside of the margin of error. He is definitely ahead in Bush's and Rubio's home-state.
Very informative internals:
So, according to the self-identification of the GOP survey group, it is 92% white, 62% male and 81% age 50 and over.
And the breakdown within the breakdown:
Trump wins the white vote, but loses the minority vote (Black, Latino).
Trump wins among both genders, but more among men, who are definitely overrepresented in this poll.
Trump wins in every age group from 30 up. Bush wins among the younger voters.
Let's compare the demographics of the GOP as represented in this poll with the current demographics of the State of Florida:
Florida QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
The statistics show that the demographics of the Republican Party of Florida are radically different than that statistics of the state itself. The Florida GOP relies almost exclusively on white voters who are 50 and older to win the elections that they win.
And that Latino statistic? The FL GOP is 35% of the Florida electorate at current, so 5.5% of 35% = 1.93%. So, essentially, only 2% of the Florida electorate is comprised of Republican-Latinos. That's it.
The race, gender and age factors in this state explain very quickly why, in state elections in off years or mid-term cycles, the GOP can do well enough to win some very important elections or achieve parity with the DEMS, but in national presidential elections where many, many more people come out to vote, as the fourth largest, soon-to-be the third largest state in the Union, it is having a really hard time getting to 50%, a problem that is only going to get worse for the GOP in the next twelve years when many of the 50 and older crowd die off and the younger voters who are enrolled are more and more minorities. That's not a slam on the FL GOP. It's simple math.
The Hedgehog Report is a REPUBLICAN poll-reporting website, I know the owner. I suppose you could call him a RINO from Maryland, although he seems to espouse very, very conservative opinions. This is how he presented these poll totals at his website last night:
I remind, he is a Republican, not a Democrat.
Florida has a huge number of delegates to the RNC and is a pure WTA state in the primaries.
1,902 LV, MoE = +/-2.2, internet (email only) poll
PRESIDENT – FLORIDA – GOP PRIMARY (St. Pete Polls)
Donald Trump 26.1%
Jeb Bush 20.0%
Unsure or Someone Else 15.9%
Scott Walker 12.2%
Marco Rubio 9.7%
Ben Carson 4.5%
Ted Cruz 4.2%
John Kasich 4.1%
Rand Paul 3.3%
Margin: Trump +6.1
That is 4 points outside of the margin of error. He is definitely ahead in Bush's and Rubio's home-state.
Very informative internals:
So, according to the self-identification of the GOP survey group, it is 92% white, 62% male and 81% age 50 and over.
And the breakdown within the breakdown:
Trump wins the white vote, but loses the minority vote (Black, Latino).
Trump wins among both genders, but more among men, who are definitely overrepresented in this poll.
Trump wins in every age group from 30 up. Bush wins among the younger voters.
Let's compare the demographics of the GOP as represented in this poll with the current demographics of the State of Florida:
Florida QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
The statistics show that the demographics of the Republican Party of Florida are radically different than that statistics of the state itself. The Florida GOP relies almost exclusively on white voters who are 50 and older to win the elections that they win.
And that Latino statistic? The FL GOP is 35% of the Florida electorate at current, so 5.5% of 35% = 1.93%. So, essentially, only 2% of the Florida electorate is comprised of Republican-Latinos. That's it.
The race, gender and age factors in this state explain very quickly why, in state elections in off years or mid-term cycles, the GOP can do well enough to win some very important elections or achieve parity with the DEMS, but in national presidential elections where many, many more people come out to vote, as the fourth largest, soon-to-be the third largest state in the Union, it is having a really hard time getting to 50%, a problem that is only going to get worse for the GOP in the next twelve years when many of the 50 and older crowd die off and the younger voters who are enrolled are more and more minorities. That's not a slam on the FL GOP. It's simple math.
The Hedgehog Report is a REPUBLICAN poll-reporting website, I know the owner. I suppose you could call him a RINO from Maryland, although he seems to espouse very, very conservative opinions. This is how he presented these poll totals at his website last night:
I remind, he is a Republican, not a Democrat.
Florida has a huge number of delegates to the RNC and is a pure WTA state in the primaries.
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