SavannahMann
Platinum Member
- Nov 16, 2016
- 13,990
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Let me begin saying this. I do not regret voting for Trump in 2016. I still believe that he was a better choice than Hillary. Do I have issues with his policies? Yes. But I had issues with the policies of every single President, including ones that I voted for.
Now, to the meat of this particular post. I believe that Trump is compounding errors. Let’s take Syria, and the Kurds. First, let me say I did not agree with the decision to get involved in Syria. I have posted many times that the true scandal in Benghazi was not the death of an Ambassador, but the fact that we were funneling weapons to the “Free Syrian” movement from Benghazi. That many of these weapons ended up in the hands of Terrorists is well known and an established fact. I believe it was a major failure on Obama’s part to get involved in the first place.
Now, what about today? Today, the mistake is leaving our allies high and dry. I don’t mean Turkey. Turkey is an ally of convenience. They always have been. We knew when we formed NATO that Russia wanted the Bosporus Straights. It would allow them to have year round access to the shipping lanes. There was never the shared philosophical ideals between Turkey and the rest of NATO. It was literally a case of enemy of my enemy. Turkey did not want to go Communist, and Russia wanted Turkey. We didn’t want Russia to have Turkey.
So what have we accomplished with our foray into Syria? We have alienated an ally, even one of convenience in Turkey. We have started a Civil War that has flooded our real allies in Europe with refugees. We ended up in another Surrogate War Scenario where our troops were fighting those advised by the Russians, and vice versa. But through it were the Kurds. Let me tell you this. The Kurds have been our go to folks for a very long time in the region. What they want is a homeland. A Kurdistan. There was talk, briefly, of cutting one out of Iraq at one point. It went nowhere, but it shows that the Kurds have been if not allies, than friendly with us for a very long time. I remember them from my own experience in Gulf War One.
Russia was never going to let Syria fall. Their one Mediterranean Naval Base was there. It was never going to happen. It was stupid of Hillary and Obama to even start this mess. But once it started, the idea that we had to get out with our friends intact was obvious. Now, we have Russia even more in control of Syria, and worse, Turkey has become friendly to Russia. Our NATO ally has cozied up to Russia to the tune of getting the S-400 Anti Air missile system. The one we believe can shoot down the F-35. If it is not a guarantee, it is at least a major threat to the aircraft. We canceled the F-35 deal for Turkey over this, unwilling to have our State of the Art planes in the same place as the “Advisors” from Russia on how to maintain and use the S-400.
Turkey responded by purchasing Mig’s. Before you snort, the MiG is a good airplane. A very good airplane. The MiG 31 is close to a match for the F-18 or F-16. Our missiles have longer range, but in close, the Russian aircraft has the advantage. It turns tighter, and the Archer missile system can track and lock onto a target at a much greater angle. Our planes have to be pointed at the target to get a lock, the Russian planes have to be pointed in the general direction. We would probably win, but it would not be a bloodless victory where all their planes fall and not one of ours gets a scratch. We would control the skies, but only just. And if it is fought over the region with the S-400 missile system, that victory becomes far harder fought, and far more expensive, and more in doubt.
So we essentially lost our NATO ally already. Now, we have alienated our “friends” the Kurds. We can’t ask them for assistance in fighting anyone ever again. They won’t believe us if we say we will be there for the long haul. Not the way we left them hanging in Syria.
There is talk about making up with Turkey, but can we trust them again? Even if Turkey backs away from the S-400 and cancels the order for the Russian Planes, we will have an ally who knows that no matter what they do, we have to acquiesce. The tail that wags the dog scenario.
So how did we get here? After this review of the situation, it seems that I have some explaining on how we got here. The answer is one you won’t like on the left, Deep State. The reality is one you won’t like on the Right. Trump.
The various leaks and betrayals by the “deep state” have caused Trump to distrust it. That is a problem. Trump is the sort of fellow that if he doesn’t like you, he doesn’t trust you. That means when you give him advice, even great advice, he won’t take it. He will go the opposite way just to show you he isn’t fooled by you. So Trump’s knee jerk responses are to go exactly opposite to what the advisors tell him. Instead of showing them who is boss, it increases the animosity. These are people with experience and you don’t discount their advice easily. But let’s say you suspect the advice, what can you do?
The answer is consult others. You call in a Professor, or another expert on the region. You talk to them, and get their read. If it is the same as the Deep State fellow you don’t trust, then that Deep State fellow is probably telling the truth, and giving you good advice.
The problem is that Trump has always been in charge. His word was always the direction of the Company. He has never had to build consensus, and he has never had to accept the advice of others. His Lawyers are there to make problems go away, not advise him on how to avoid problems. So he distrusts advice, especially advice that goes counter to what he wants to do.
The experts who distrust Trump see their nightmare coming true. People who have worked for decades to build good solid relationships with people like the Kurds see their life’s work shot to hell. Of course they are going to be angry, and hurt, and feel betrayed. They have risked life and limb in many cases to build those relationships. These are friends not just associates.
In many way’s it is like the Montagnards of Vietnam. We befriended them, and trained them, and they died fighting along side us. Then we pulled out, and they suffered for being on the wrong side just as the citizens of South Vietnam did.
President Kennedy said that in America, you could have no greater friend, and no worse enemy. I have always agreed with that principle as stated. It is exactly how you survive in the world of rising tensions. You stand steadfast for your principles, and beliefs, and you stand alongside your friends.
Trump has faith in himself above all others. And that is part of what made him successful in business. It is what has caused him the most trouble in Politics. Because no one person can possibly know it all. You have to rely on your advisors. You have to listen and eschew their advice only when you have solid reasons for it. Not just that you don’t like the person, or department advising you.
All that said. No, I still do not regret voting for Trump. I just wish he was doing a better job. Then again, I wish the Government Deep State folks were backing him a little better too. Instead of stabbing him in the back every chance they get.
Now, to the meat of this particular post. I believe that Trump is compounding errors. Let’s take Syria, and the Kurds. First, let me say I did not agree with the decision to get involved in Syria. I have posted many times that the true scandal in Benghazi was not the death of an Ambassador, but the fact that we were funneling weapons to the “Free Syrian” movement from Benghazi. That many of these weapons ended up in the hands of Terrorists is well known and an established fact. I believe it was a major failure on Obama’s part to get involved in the first place.
Now, what about today? Today, the mistake is leaving our allies high and dry. I don’t mean Turkey. Turkey is an ally of convenience. They always have been. We knew when we formed NATO that Russia wanted the Bosporus Straights. It would allow them to have year round access to the shipping lanes. There was never the shared philosophical ideals between Turkey and the rest of NATO. It was literally a case of enemy of my enemy. Turkey did not want to go Communist, and Russia wanted Turkey. We didn’t want Russia to have Turkey.
So what have we accomplished with our foray into Syria? We have alienated an ally, even one of convenience in Turkey. We have started a Civil War that has flooded our real allies in Europe with refugees. We ended up in another Surrogate War Scenario where our troops were fighting those advised by the Russians, and vice versa. But through it were the Kurds. Let me tell you this. The Kurds have been our go to folks for a very long time in the region. What they want is a homeland. A Kurdistan. There was talk, briefly, of cutting one out of Iraq at one point. It went nowhere, but it shows that the Kurds have been if not allies, than friendly with us for a very long time. I remember them from my own experience in Gulf War One.
Russia was never going to let Syria fall. Their one Mediterranean Naval Base was there. It was never going to happen. It was stupid of Hillary and Obama to even start this mess. But once it started, the idea that we had to get out with our friends intact was obvious. Now, we have Russia even more in control of Syria, and worse, Turkey has become friendly to Russia. Our NATO ally has cozied up to Russia to the tune of getting the S-400 Anti Air missile system. The one we believe can shoot down the F-35. If it is not a guarantee, it is at least a major threat to the aircraft. We canceled the F-35 deal for Turkey over this, unwilling to have our State of the Art planes in the same place as the “Advisors” from Russia on how to maintain and use the S-400.
Turkey responded by purchasing Mig’s. Before you snort, the MiG is a good airplane. A very good airplane. The MiG 31 is close to a match for the F-18 or F-16. Our missiles have longer range, but in close, the Russian aircraft has the advantage. It turns tighter, and the Archer missile system can track and lock onto a target at a much greater angle. Our planes have to be pointed at the target to get a lock, the Russian planes have to be pointed in the general direction. We would probably win, but it would not be a bloodless victory where all their planes fall and not one of ours gets a scratch. We would control the skies, but only just. And if it is fought over the region with the S-400 missile system, that victory becomes far harder fought, and far more expensive, and more in doubt.
So we essentially lost our NATO ally already. Now, we have alienated our “friends” the Kurds. We can’t ask them for assistance in fighting anyone ever again. They won’t believe us if we say we will be there for the long haul. Not the way we left them hanging in Syria.
There is talk about making up with Turkey, but can we trust them again? Even if Turkey backs away from the S-400 and cancels the order for the Russian Planes, we will have an ally who knows that no matter what they do, we have to acquiesce. The tail that wags the dog scenario.
So how did we get here? After this review of the situation, it seems that I have some explaining on how we got here. The answer is one you won’t like on the left, Deep State. The reality is one you won’t like on the Right. Trump.
The various leaks and betrayals by the “deep state” have caused Trump to distrust it. That is a problem. Trump is the sort of fellow that if he doesn’t like you, he doesn’t trust you. That means when you give him advice, even great advice, he won’t take it. He will go the opposite way just to show you he isn’t fooled by you. So Trump’s knee jerk responses are to go exactly opposite to what the advisors tell him. Instead of showing them who is boss, it increases the animosity. These are people with experience and you don’t discount their advice easily. But let’s say you suspect the advice, what can you do?
The answer is consult others. You call in a Professor, or another expert on the region. You talk to them, and get their read. If it is the same as the Deep State fellow you don’t trust, then that Deep State fellow is probably telling the truth, and giving you good advice.
The problem is that Trump has always been in charge. His word was always the direction of the Company. He has never had to build consensus, and he has never had to accept the advice of others. His Lawyers are there to make problems go away, not advise him on how to avoid problems. So he distrusts advice, especially advice that goes counter to what he wants to do.
The experts who distrust Trump see their nightmare coming true. People who have worked for decades to build good solid relationships with people like the Kurds see their life’s work shot to hell. Of course they are going to be angry, and hurt, and feel betrayed. They have risked life and limb in many cases to build those relationships. These are friends not just associates.
In many way’s it is like the Montagnards of Vietnam. We befriended them, and trained them, and they died fighting along side us. Then we pulled out, and they suffered for being on the wrong side just as the citizens of South Vietnam did.
President Kennedy said that in America, you could have no greater friend, and no worse enemy. I have always agreed with that principle as stated. It is exactly how you survive in the world of rising tensions. You stand steadfast for your principles, and beliefs, and you stand alongside your friends.
Trump has faith in himself above all others. And that is part of what made him successful in business. It is what has caused him the most trouble in Politics. Because no one person can possibly know it all. You have to rely on your advisors. You have to listen and eschew their advice only when you have solid reasons for it. Not just that you don’t like the person, or department advising you.
All that said. No, I still do not regret voting for Trump. I just wish he was doing a better job. Then again, I wish the Government Deep State folks were backing him a little better too. Instead of stabbing him in the back every chance they get.
