Trades...

[Strawboss]

Trades for last week included bought some NUGT, sold some put options on NUGT, sold some put options on JAG (small position), bought puts on RIMM, bought calls on USO.

The JAG one is the most interesting to me. I sold the $4 Jan 13 put option on JAG. My thought process is that JAG is slightly above $1. Worst case scenario is it goes to zero and I lose $1ish. Best case scenario is that I get to keep the money...

I love selling put options. 66% chance of winning if you sell the right strikes. Even when you are a bit off - you can still make good premium by closing it on a price rise in the stock.
I would never sell calls - thats crazy. Unlimited risk.

The USO calls are for the potential of Iran to follow through on its threat to close the straits of Hormuz when the sanctions are implemented. If they do in fact close the straits - you will see an oil moonshot.

NUGT is because the miners have been so ridiculously beat up that the risk/reward ratio is something like 500:1 (just a guess). Considering we are just now starting wave 3 of 3 of MAJOR THREE in gold and the miners could literally explode upwards from here. Selling the put options is a reflection of how much time do I realistically expect NUGT to trade under $10 in the next 3 months - answer...very, very little.

 

[TruthSeeker56]

Trades for last week included bought some NUGT, sold some put options on NUGT, sold some put options on JAG (small position), bought puts on RIMM, bought calls on USO.

The JAG one is the most interesting to me. I sold the $4 Jan 13 put option on JAG. My thought process is that JAG is slightly above $1. Worst case scenario is it goes to zero and I lose $1ish. Best case scenario is that I get to keep the money...

I love selling put options. 66% chance of winning if you sell the right strikes. Even when you are a bit off - you can still make good premium by closing it on a price rise in the stock.
I would never sell calls - thats crazy. Unlimited risk.

The USO calls are for the potential of Iran to follow through on its threat to close the straits of Hormuz when the sanctions are implemented. If they do in fact close the straits - you will see an oil moonshot.

NUGT is because the miners have been so ridiculously beat up that the risk/reward ratio is something like 500:1 (just a guess). Considering we are just now starting wave 3 of 3 of MAJOR THREE in gold and the miners could literally explode upwards from here. Selling the put options is a reflection of how much time do I realistically expect NUGT to trade under $10 in the next 3 months - answer...very, very little.

All of your "ifs, whens, buts, and maybes" must create a lot of STRESS in your life.

Abandon your speculatory crap shoot, simplify your life, and secure your future financial health by BUYING SILVER AND GOLD.

 

[Strawboss]

All of your "ifs, whens, buts, and maybes" must create a lot of STRESS in your life.

Abandon your speculatory crap shoot, simplify your life, and secure your future financial health by BUYING SILVER AND GOLD.

Thanks for the advice. I had never thought of that. /sarc off

 

[California Girl]

Trades for last week included bought some NUGT, sold some put options on NUGT, sold some put options on JAG (small position), bought puts on RIMM, bought calls on USO.

The JAG one is the most interesting to me. I sold the $4 Jan 13 put option on JAG. My thought process is that JAG is slightly above $1. Worst case scenario is it goes to zero and I lose $1ish. Best case scenario is that I get to keep the money...

I love selling put options. 66% chance of winning if you sell the right strikes. Even when you are a bit off - you can still make good premium by closing it on a price rise in the stock.
I would never sell calls - thats crazy. Unlimited risk.

The USO calls are for the potential of Iran to follow through on its threat to close the straits of Hormuz when the sanctions are implemented. If they do in fact close the straits - you will see an oil moonshot.

NUGT is because the miners have been so ridiculously beat up that the risk/reward ratio is something like 500:1 (just a guess). Considering we are just now starting wave 3 of 3 of MAJOR THREE in gold and the miners could literally explode upwards from here. Selling the put options is a reflection of how much time do I realistically expect NUGT to trade under $10 in the next 3 months - answer...very, very little.

All of your "ifs, whens, buts, and maybes" must create a lot of STRESS in your life.

Abandon your speculatory crap shoot, simplify your life, and secure your future financial health by BUYING SILVER AND GOLD.

Actually, I'm making some seriously decent returns on farm land, and emerging economies like Brazil. But I take a more strategic approach to investing.

 

[Strawboss]

Added some calls on SLW today. My puts on RIMM are dead. I forgot all about the holiday this week and wont have enough time for my targets to get hit. I will reassess RIMM later this week or early next week for another shot at some puts.

I am hoping against hope for one more slam down in silver. I would love to see price pushed down below $26 to clear out all the stops. I have a large cash position I am waiting to deploy and will back up the freakin' truck if silver does go to sub-26.

Here are a couple views of SLW:

 

[Strawboss]

Sold my SLW calls - 160+% in one day. Love it when a plan comes together.

Bought some NUGT puts to hedge my core NUGT holding at the close. Considered selling some covered calls, but - decided on the puts instead.

USO calls up 70%.

Will be rebuying SLW calls on the next dip which might be Thursday morning. Looking to sell some more NUGT put options on next dip and will be adding to my position as well.

Expecting a correction on the 60 minute chart (or at least a tradeable dip).

 

[Strawboss]

Sold my core NUGT position this morning - picked up some SLV Jan 13 $34 calls. Waiting to see how tonight/tomorrow shape up before I commit to holding a 3x levered miners ETF over the weekend.

 

[Strawboss]

Below are a couple of charts for GDX (click on the small chart to expand it).

The first chart is a daily view of GDX for 2008. The second chart is a daily view of GDX for the past year.





What I see are 2 very, very similar charts exhibiting similar price action. Whether that similarity continues is anyones guess...

I am expecting a lower open in GDX this upcoming Monday and intend to buy some calls once I get a tradeable signal.

 

[Strawboss]

Added some SLW calls and sold some GDX puts today. GDX is looking very oversold on the 60 minute chart - sitting on an RSI of 40 on the daily. In an uptrend (which I think we are currently in, RSI tends to bottom at 40 on corrections. Additionally, GDX has had down days 4 days in a row. Not that it couldnt have more down days in a row, but, the odds are in favor of an up move from here.

GDX has previously put in a low around $39. This is the first substantial correction since then. If this is truly an uptrend forming, you would expect for this low to be higher than the previous one.

Here are a couple of charts (daily and 60 minute) for GDX:

 

[hortysir]

Need more lotion?

 

[Strawboss]

I am currently under severe stress on my option positions - especially my GDX put options that I sold yesterday. I have 2 days before they expire and I need GDX to gain 2% to break even (hopefully more to make a profit). I considered buying them back today at a loss but decided against it. Maybe a good move - maybe stupid. Time will tell.

I am hurting at the moment but still expecting higher prices over the next couple of days. Lets see how it turns out.

By the way - this thread is intended for 2 purposes. Firstly - to document my trades (good and bad). Secondly - to hopefully compel some of you lurkers to post your own trades (and the rationale behind those trades) so that we can collectively learn from each other. So far - I have been doing all the work on this thread - except for the trolls.

Hey Jim - you talked me into joining this forum and you leave me hanging high and dry? You are supposed to be backstopping my trades - providing sufficient liquidity to ensure that my trades are always GREEN.

 

[TruthSeeker56]

I am currently under severe stress on my option positions - especially my GDX put options that I sold yesterday. I have 2 days before they expire and I need GDX to gain 2% to break even (hopefully more to make a profit). I considered buying them back today at a loss but decided against it. Maybe a good move - maybe stupid. Time will tell.

I am hurting at the moment but still expecting higher prices over the next couple of days. Lets see how it turns out.

By the way - this thread is intended for 2 purposes. Firstly - to document my trades (good and bad). Secondly - to hopefully compel some of you lurkers to post your own trades (and the rationale behind those trades) so that we can collectively learn from each other. So far - I have been doing all the work on this thread - except for the trolls.

Hey Jim - you talked me into joining this forum and you leave me hanging high and dry? You are supposed to be backstopping my trades - providing sufficient liquidity to ensure that my trades are always GREEN.

Have ever considered the fact that some of us don't manipulate and speculate like you do, and wouldn't go near the U.S. Stock Market with a ten foot pole?

That some of us choose to have a very limited amount of PAPER wealth?

That some of us believe that the house of cards known as the U.S. economy is going to come crumbling down in the near future, and all of your paper wealth will be reduced to some pretty rough toilet paper?

That some of us are of the opinion that if you can't touch it and hold it, you don't OWN it?

In my case, I define wealth as having a "metallic" sound to it, possessing items that will feed and protect my family, and owning things that can be used for bartering.

 

[g5000]

Go long PAL, currently at $1.77.

 

[kellysmith]

Thanks for the advice.

 

[Strawboss]

Go long PAL, currently at $1.77.

I am interested in your rationale for this. Is it technical? Fundamentals? Some combination? Upcoming news?

 

[Strawboss]

I have been layering in some more SLW calls. Bought some Aug 28s and Dec 30s. Will add more tomorrow if we get another good dip. Holding back some serious cash in case we get a nice slam below $26 in silver - should trigger lots of stops.

 

[hortysir]

Ok, SB, I'll admit I'm lost with the lingo but since you apparently know WTF you're talking about, what would you recommend for someone that can only spend a few bucks ata time to do?

I know I see ads all the time, advertising $7 trades. But seven bucks would probably be my max purchase

 

[Strawboss]

Optimst - I wasnt looking for you to take the other side of my trades - rather to ride shotgun buying sufficient quantities to ensure that the needle stays green and rising.

I sold some of my SLW calls today when silver hit $27.50 as that was R2 resistance (using pivots). It also represents the top of the trading range with $26.50ish being the bottom. Those were calls I picked up over the past couple of days. I also bought some SLV puts and GDX puts at the same time today. I am expecting a dip which has already begun and that I expect to continue for the next day or 2. I will re-evaluate tomorrow. I am still holding some longer dated SLW and SLV calls that I am intending on adding to as we dip lower (hopefully).

I also doubled down on my USO calls as I am expecting oil prices to rise (perhaps substantially). I also picked up some puts on AAPL this afternoon. There is a defined downtrend in AAPL with a lower high recently. I am expecting AAPL to grind sideways to down over the coming weeks/months. Of course all of my puts get dumped the moment the Fed decides on some QEasy Threesey. AAPL is going to suffer from margin compression in their iPhone sales - which is their most profitable item. Their competitors are undercutting them on price for similar or better equipment forcing them to reduce their prices - hence the margin compression. Even though their unit sales are still rising - their profit per unit is falling. Goldman Sachs is still recommending AAPL as a strong buy which is good enough for me to institute some shorts.

Pretium Resources just announced some absolutely stunning drill results today. Pretium is one of my core holdings and its a monster in the making. Definitely worth checking into.

 

[Strawboss]

All of the puts that I bought went up in flames, but, my calls did well. I added some calls for CDE, RIC and SLV.

Things are looking very, very positive for the precious metals. Silver put in an outside reversal candlestick on the weekly chart and the US dollar put in a very, very ugly outside reversal candlestick on its weekly chart.

Dollar declines - silver shoots the moon. I am loaded and ready for the festivities. I still have a sizeable cash position that I will deploy if somehow silver gets pushed below $26.

 

[g5000]

PAL has climbed 43 percent in the last month, while the Dow climbed a meager 2.3 percent. It is up 23% since my July post, while the Dow climbed one third that rate. Now trading at $2.17.

You're welcome!

.