SwimExpert
Gold Member
- Nov 26, 2013
- 16,247
- 1,679
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- Banned
- #1
There are a few 'nuclear' options that are available. At this point, whether Trump's campaign really is a fifth column attack against the GOP or a sincere example of the highest depths of stupidity, two things are painfully obvious: 1) Nominating Donald Trump would be a disaster for the Republican Party; 2) A Trump Presidency would be a disaster for the country worse than Obama.
There are three main nuclear options that available to the Republican Party to prevent this from happening.
1 - The RNC nuclear option
Ultimately, the selection of a party nominee is governed by a party. There are various state election laws that may apply to state parties, but the act of nomination occurs at the Republican National Convention; the national party is not subject to any obligations of various state requirements and is under no obligation to welcome any delegate sent by state parties. The Republican National Committee has within it's power to take action (though they would have to do so fast) to amend the rules of the Convention to prevent Trump's nomination through a direct attack. For example, the Committee could enact a rule that would disqualify any delegate who is bound to Trump. Even more direct, the Committee could decree Trump as ineligible to receive the party's nomination. In doing so, the Committee could also employ a substitution scheme, whereby any delegates bound to Trump, sent by states, will be replaced by delegates selected by the Committee, and be bound to other candidates such as to proportionally allocate delegates to all those candidates based primary results after subtracting votes for Trump. That is to say, delegates be awarded to candidates proportionately after discarding votes for Trump.
2 - Forcing constitutional contingencies with independent Republican candidate
If the Republican party fails to prevent Trump's nomination, another nuclear option available would be to shun support for Trump and for the Republican National Committee to back a runner up candidate via an independent campaign. While independent campaigns tend to be notoriously unfruitful, one of the main reasons for that is the fact that an independent must attempt to prevail against the combined resources of the the two major parties. If the RNC were to decline providing support for Trump and instead provide support for an alternate Republican running as an independent, combined with the special nature of such an event, the chances of success are much greater.
The reason success would be possible is that the goal in this case would not be much lower. Instead of seeking an absolute majority of 270 electors, the goal would become simply gaining some electors, enough to prevent an absolute majority. This would force the selection of President to move into the constitutionally prescribed contingencies. The House would, by state delegations, select the President from among the three candidates receiving the most electoral votes. And because Republicans would have the majority caucus in this scenario, the Republicans would be free to select the alternate candidate.
3 - Forcing constitutional contingencies through disqualification of electoral votes
The votes of electors are qualified during a joint session of Congress. Although uncommon, the votes of electors from a given state can be objected to, provided that the objection is made in writing and is signed by at least one member of each house. When a proper objection is made, the counting of the electoral votes is suspended and each house separately considers and votes on whether to uphold the objection. In January 2001 several HOR members objected to the votes Florida's electors, but the objections were not indulged because no member of the Senate would sign them. But in the case of the 1872 and 1876 elections, objections were made, and resulted in some electoral votes being rejected and disqualified.
If the Republican party were to fail to prevent Trump's nomination, and if Trump were to somehow manage to be successful in a general election, Congressional Republicans could still prevent Trump from ever assuming office by objecting to just enough electoral votes cast for Trump so as to reduce his total to less than an absolute majority. As long as the independent candidate in scenario two above receives at least one electoral vote, this third option would remain available. Once again, constitutional contingencies would take effect and the HOR would select the President.
There are three main nuclear options that available to the Republican Party to prevent this from happening.
1 - The RNC nuclear option
Ultimately, the selection of a party nominee is governed by a party. There are various state election laws that may apply to state parties, but the act of nomination occurs at the Republican National Convention; the national party is not subject to any obligations of various state requirements and is under no obligation to welcome any delegate sent by state parties. The Republican National Committee has within it's power to take action (though they would have to do so fast) to amend the rules of the Convention to prevent Trump's nomination through a direct attack. For example, the Committee could enact a rule that would disqualify any delegate who is bound to Trump. Even more direct, the Committee could decree Trump as ineligible to receive the party's nomination. In doing so, the Committee could also employ a substitution scheme, whereby any delegates bound to Trump, sent by states, will be replaced by delegates selected by the Committee, and be bound to other candidates such as to proportionally allocate delegates to all those candidates based primary results after subtracting votes for Trump. That is to say, delegates be awarded to candidates proportionately after discarding votes for Trump.
2 - Forcing constitutional contingencies with independent Republican candidate
If the Republican party fails to prevent Trump's nomination, another nuclear option available would be to shun support for Trump and for the Republican National Committee to back a runner up candidate via an independent campaign. While independent campaigns tend to be notoriously unfruitful, one of the main reasons for that is the fact that an independent must attempt to prevail against the combined resources of the the two major parties. If the RNC were to decline providing support for Trump and instead provide support for an alternate Republican running as an independent, combined with the special nature of such an event, the chances of success are much greater.
The reason success would be possible is that the goal in this case would not be much lower. Instead of seeking an absolute majority of 270 electors, the goal would become simply gaining some electors, enough to prevent an absolute majority. This would force the selection of President to move into the constitutionally prescribed contingencies. The House would, by state delegations, select the President from among the three candidates receiving the most electoral votes. And because Republicans would have the majority caucus in this scenario, the Republicans would be free to select the alternate candidate.
3 - Forcing constitutional contingencies through disqualification of electoral votes
The votes of electors are qualified during a joint session of Congress. Although uncommon, the votes of electors from a given state can be objected to, provided that the objection is made in writing and is signed by at least one member of each house. When a proper objection is made, the counting of the electoral votes is suspended and each house separately considers and votes on whether to uphold the objection. In January 2001 several HOR members objected to the votes Florida's electors, but the objections were not indulged because no member of the Senate would sign them. But in the case of the 1872 and 1876 elections, objections were made, and resulted in some electoral votes being rejected and disqualified.
If the Republican party were to fail to prevent Trump's nomination, and if Trump were to somehow manage to be successful in a general election, Congressional Republicans could still prevent Trump from ever assuming office by objecting to just enough electoral votes cast for Trump so as to reduce his total to less than an absolute majority. As long as the independent candidate in scenario two above receives at least one electoral vote, this third option would remain available. Once again, constitutional contingencies would take effect and the HOR would select the President.
