Those INITIAL Unemployment Claim numbers!

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Jun 21, 2009.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Those INITIAL Unemployment Claim numbers!


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    INITIAL CLAIMS are the total number of people who have filled out claims for unemployment insurance each week across the nation. They are almost always revised a few days after they are issued, as not all of the states send in all of their claim numbers.

    Note that in May the total of people claiming UI was close to 3 Million. Those were people who were previously employed and felt that they were entitled to UI. Some of course will be ruled ineligible. That usually runs about 2% across the states. If it was three of four percent, May still had two and a half MILLION people who filed and probably got their payments.

    So, how in hell can Obama say that only 345,000 were newly unemployed in May????????? This administration is so damned ethically corrupt it is unbelievable!


    WEEK of 6/20
    WEEK of 6/13 608 K
    WEEK of 6/06 605 K previously 601 K
    WEEK of 5/30 625 K previously 621 K
    WEEK of 5/23 625 K previously 623 K
    WEEK of 5/16 636 K previously 631 K
    WEEK of 5/09 643 K previously 637 K
    WEEK of 5/02 605 K previously 601 K
    WEEK of 4/25 635 K previously 631 K
    WEEK of 4/18 645 K previously 640 K
    WEEK of 4/11 613 K previously 610 K
    WEEK of 4/04 663 K previously 654 K
    WEEK of 3/28 674 K previously 669 K
    WEEK of 3/21 657 K previously 652 K
    WEEK of 3/14 644 K previously 646 K
    WEEK of 3/07 658 K previously 654 K
    WEEK of 2/28 645 K previously 639 K
    WEEK of 2/21 670 K previously 667 K
    WEEK of 2/14 631 K previously 627 K
    WEEK of 2/07 627 K previously 623 K


    From now on in, these are the only numbers that I will look at to see if the Economic collapse is slowing down. So far it is not. anytime, you have two million people a month losing their jobs, there are no green shoots.
     
  2. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    He didn't. The 345,000 you're referring to was the NET CHANGE in NON-FARM ESTABLISHMENT, NOT newly unemployed. Please at least try to understand what the different figures are and what they mean before you complain. You only sound silly.

    Oh, and side note...neither the President nor his advisors have any access to or knowledge of the monthly Employment or Unemployment numbers until the night before the release...when it's too late to change anything, even if he could. The current Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the ONLY BLS political appointee, was appointed by BUSH, not Obama.
     
  3. oreo
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    oreo Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Government statistics are "always" revised. They are not an exact. I think we're seeing a little slow-down in the number of newly unemployed--because of typically higher employment in the summer months. But what is disturbing to me--is that we are not seeing old unemployed find new jobs. We have highly educated people applying for convenience store clerks.
     
  4. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Unlikely...the official numbers, such as the initial claims Neubarth listed, are seasonally adjusted to account for exactly that kind of regular change.

    In fact, the actual number of initial claims for the week of June 13 was 554,405. 608,000 is the seasonally adjusted number.
     
  5. Baruch Menachem
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    Baruch Menachem '

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    I got laid off in April. Since the job market is pathetic and will continue to be so for the long term, I haven't applied for benefits yet. I am getting severance right now that keeps my insurance and such. Were I to get a job without insurance, I would loose the severance benefits anyway.

    Anyway, I look at the want ads daily. In the portland OR area, there are pathetically few jobs open, and those that are open have really high experience lists that are outside my area.

    Back in April, there were a lot more jobs available than there are now. Even the folks that were hiring in April and laying off now.

    Oregon has a unemployment rate of nearly 15%. It seems there is no one left to fire.
     
  6. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Total BULLSHIT! The Secretary of Labor makes the calls on all reports, and SHE is an Obama appointee.

    As regards your other claim, you are trying to deceive people. We do not need that here.

    The Employment Report
    Importance (A-F): This release merits an A.
    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
    Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET for the prior month
    Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm.
    The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period which includes the 12th of each month.

    The reports both measure employment levels, just from different angles. Due to the vastly different size of the survey samples (the establishment survey not only surveys more businesses, but each business employs many individuals), the measures of employment may differ markedly from month to month. The household survey is used only for the unemployment measure - the market focusses primarily on the more comprehensive establishment survey. Together, these two surveys make up the employment report, the most timely and broad indicator of economic activity released each month.

    Total payrolls are broken down into sectors such as manufacturing, mining, construction, services, and government. The markets follows these components closely as indicators of the trends in sectors of the economy; the manufacturing sector is watched the most closely as it often leads the business cycle. The data also include breakdowns of hours worked, overtime, and average hourly earnings.

    The average workweek (also known as hours worked) is important for two reasons. First, it is a critical determinant of such monthly indicators as industrial production and personal income. Second, it is considered a useful indicator of labor market conditions: a rising workweek early in the business cycle may be the first indication that employers are preparing to boost their payrolls, while late in the cycle a rising workweek may indicate that employers are having difficulty finding qualified applicants for open positions. Average earnings are closely followed as an indicator of potential inflation. Like the price of any good or service, the price of labor reacts to an overly accommodative monetary policy. If the price of labor is rising sharply, it may be an indication that too much money is chasing too few goods, or in this case employees.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2009
  7. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    No, she doesn't. She has no access and no knowledge of the numbers until the night before release. The Commissioner of BLS runs BLS, which is only administrativly under DOL. The Secretary sets broad policy but has no other dealings with BLS.

    No, you still don't understand. The 345,000 decline comes from the Non-Farm Establishment payroll survey..and ONLY that one (though it is released in the same report as the household survey) It does NOT in any way measure newly unemployed as you claimed, but the CHANGE in TOTAL non-farm employment by establishments. Excluded are the self employed, agricultural workers, and domestic workers. Show me one thing that claims it measures NEWLY unemployed as you falsely claimed.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2009
  8. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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  9. Zoomie1980
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    Zoomie1980 Senior Member

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    Actually, unemployment in Oregon was 11.8% in Apr, 12.1% in May. Iowa's rate is...5.4%, Nebraska 4.4%.

    I think you need to move....
     
  10. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    This is correct. The politicians generally leave the statisticians alone. The statisticians are professionals.

    True or False: U.S. Economic Stats Lie at SmartMoney.com
     
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