Boss
Take a Memo:
With the FEC deadlines for fundraising approaching, we are about to start seeing some candidates exit the race. Regardless of your optimism and hope, regardless of your vision or how well it is received, unless you can raise a certain level of resources to run a campaign, it won't matter. This is just a fact of life in American presidential politics and whether it is a good thing or bad thing is not relevant to the fact that it's how things are. With that being said, I thought I would go through the field and present my thoughts on who we can expect to see sticking around and who might be departing soon.
Donald Trump- No question that Trump has plenty of resources, it's not an issue with him. He said he is committed to spending whatever it takes up to a billion dollars. So it's a safe bet that Trump will be around until the end, unless something dramatic happens in the polls to indicate he will certainly lose, in which case he will drop out. So far, that doesn't seem to be a concerning threat. He is the front-runner, it's his to lose.
Jeb Bush- Again, The Bush dynasty has some pretty deep pockets. The question remains, how much money do they really want to spend on a losing effort? It would be different if Trump and Bush were relatively close in the polls, or it looked like Bush was gaining ground in any significant way, but that is not what we are seeing at all. Jeb has been mired at the 6~9% range from the start and embarrassingly, trails Trump in his own home state. My thoughts are, he is going to wait until some others drop out and see how their support shakes out. If he doesn't pick up some major ground by Super Tuesday, I look for him to fold.
Ben Carson- This one is really too close to call. Dr. Carson has been doing exceptionally well and has a strong grass roots fundraising effort, but will it be enough to sustain a lengthy campaign? I think as long as his poll numbers show him in the Top 3, he will stick it out to the convention. Whether he has the necessary fuel in the tank to get over the finish line, we'll have to wait and see. I really like him, he is one of my favorites, I hope he does well. My objective side tells me that his biggest problem is going to be lack of funds in the home stretch.
Ted Cruz- He is going to come up well short of his fundraising goals before the deadline. As much as I like him, and I've stated on numerous occasions he is my guy... I don't think he is going to make it. In certain polls he has done well and he is certainly ahead of Jeb Bush and some others, but in other polls he does rather poorly. He is probably the strongest principled conservative in the race, but that comes with it's disadvantages. It would not surprise me to see him bow out by Super Tuesday and throw his support to Trump or Carson.
Carly Fiorina- She seems to now be the default establishment candidate. After a very strong debate showing, she has become a potential challenger, particularly for Donald Trump. My thoughts are, this situation parlays itself into a sudden windfall of campaign money from the establishment elite who shall remain anonymous, of course. Look for Carly to have a spotlight at the convention and be the eventual primary challenger for Trump.
Those are the 5 people who I think have a realistic potential to win the GOP nomination. As you can see, a few of them might be out of the race by Super Tuesday, but still, they all have the potential to gain support or momentum, pick up votes from other candidates who drop out, etc. I think any or all of these candidates could reach the GOP convention and could potentially win the nomination. So on we go to the next batch, the candidates who I don't think are going to last...
Scott Walker- I was kind of leaning toward Walker at the start but he just does not impress me in the debates. I don't exactly know why, he just doesn't seem to resonate. I think his polling numbers bear this out. He's a nice guy, seems like a level headed person with solid core beliefs and good leadership skills but there is just something missing, isn't there? Perhaps it's charisma or passion? I don't know really, but I think it's a real problem for Walker and he isn't going to make it.
Chris Christie- I'm sorry but when your first statement out of the box in a debate is an order to take the camera off of you and put it on the audience... that says all that needs to be said. He's not going to win because he doesn't appeal. He has charisma, if he could transfer that to Scott Walker we'd be in business maybe? But there is somewhat of a "slob factor" about Christie, he just doesn't look like true leadership material. Of course, they said the same thing about U.S. Grant. But I digress. I don't think Krispy Kreme makes it to Super Tue.
Marco Rubio- I swear... if this guy were a Democrat Liberal, I think he would be a rock star! He has those "caring eyes" that pull at your heart strings and make you want to cry when he is telling you a story. Kind of like George W in a way, that "compassionate" element we came to *cough* know and love. I don't think the base is going for it. We've seen what this touchy-feely conservatism is like and we don't want that anymore. It's too expensive, it leads to all kinds of other problems with liberals who can't be satisfied... well, ever.
John Kasich- Not really sure why he decided to run. He isn't going to win. He should know that he isn't. I don't think he has raised enough money to stay in the race until the voting starts to be honest.
Rand Paul- Same thing. I don't think he has the money or support to continue much longer.
Mike Huckabee- A dark horse... he is someone I could be totally wrong about. There is a strong evangelical contingent supporting Huck, and they are loyal. He may last longer than others because of this, and he could potentially gain some momentum down the stretch. But... I doubt it. My thoughts are, he will fold by Super Tuesday.
Remaining candidates-- Go home... it's over... you can't win or sustain a campaign.
Donald Trump- No question that Trump has plenty of resources, it's not an issue with him. He said he is committed to spending whatever it takes up to a billion dollars. So it's a safe bet that Trump will be around until the end, unless something dramatic happens in the polls to indicate he will certainly lose, in which case he will drop out. So far, that doesn't seem to be a concerning threat. He is the front-runner, it's his to lose.
Jeb Bush- Again, The Bush dynasty has some pretty deep pockets. The question remains, how much money do they really want to spend on a losing effort? It would be different if Trump and Bush were relatively close in the polls, or it looked like Bush was gaining ground in any significant way, but that is not what we are seeing at all. Jeb has been mired at the 6~9% range from the start and embarrassingly, trails Trump in his own home state. My thoughts are, he is going to wait until some others drop out and see how their support shakes out. If he doesn't pick up some major ground by Super Tuesday, I look for him to fold.
Ben Carson- This one is really too close to call. Dr. Carson has been doing exceptionally well and has a strong grass roots fundraising effort, but will it be enough to sustain a lengthy campaign? I think as long as his poll numbers show him in the Top 3, he will stick it out to the convention. Whether he has the necessary fuel in the tank to get over the finish line, we'll have to wait and see. I really like him, he is one of my favorites, I hope he does well. My objective side tells me that his biggest problem is going to be lack of funds in the home stretch.
Ted Cruz- He is going to come up well short of his fundraising goals before the deadline. As much as I like him, and I've stated on numerous occasions he is my guy... I don't think he is going to make it. In certain polls he has done well and he is certainly ahead of Jeb Bush and some others, but in other polls he does rather poorly. He is probably the strongest principled conservative in the race, but that comes with it's disadvantages. It would not surprise me to see him bow out by Super Tuesday and throw his support to Trump or Carson.
Carly Fiorina- She seems to now be the default establishment candidate. After a very strong debate showing, she has become a potential challenger, particularly for Donald Trump. My thoughts are, this situation parlays itself into a sudden windfall of campaign money from the establishment elite who shall remain anonymous, of course. Look for Carly to have a spotlight at the convention and be the eventual primary challenger for Trump.
Those are the 5 people who I think have a realistic potential to win the GOP nomination. As you can see, a few of them might be out of the race by Super Tuesday, but still, they all have the potential to gain support or momentum, pick up votes from other candidates who drop out, etc. I think any or all of these candidates could reach the GOP convention and could potentially win the nomination. So on we go to the next batch, the candidates who I don't think are going to last...
Scott Walker- I was kind of leaning toward Walker at the start but he just does not impress me in the debates. I don't exactly know why, he just doesn't seem to resonate. I think his polling numbers bear this out. He's a nice guy, seems like a level headed person with solid core beliefs and good leadership skills but there is just something missing, isn't there? Perhaps it's charisma or passion? I don't know really, but I think it's a real problem for Walker and he isn't going to make it.
Chris Christie- I'm sorry but when your first statement out of the box in a debate is an order to take the camera off of you and put it on the audience... that says all that needs to be said. He's not going to win because he doesn't appeal. He has charisma, if he could transfer that to Scott Walker we'd be in business maybe? But there is somewhat of a "slob factor" about Christie, he just doesn't look like true leadership material. Of course, they said the same thing about U.S. Grant. But I digress. I don't think Krispy Kreme makes it to Super Tue.
Marco Rubio- I swear... if this guy were a Democrat Liberal, I think he would be a rock star! He has those "caring eyes" that pull at your heart strings and make you want to cry when he is telling you a story. Kind of like George W in a way, that "compassionate" element we came to *cough* know and love. I don't think the base is going for it. We've seen what this touchy-feely conservatism is like and we don't want that anymore. It's too expensive, it leads to all kinds of other problems with liberals who can't be satisfied... well, ever.
John Kasich- Not really sure why he decided to run. He isn't going to win. He should know that he isn't. I don't think he has raised enough money to stay in the race until the voting starts to be honest.
Rand Paul- Same thing. I don't think he has the money or support to continue much longer.
Mike Huckabee- A dark horse... he is someone I could be totally wrong about. There is a strong evangelical contingent supporting Huck, and they are loyal. He may last longer than others because of this, and he could potentially gain some momentum down the stretch. But... I doubt it. My thoughts are, he will fold by Super Tuesday.
Remaining candidates-- Go home... it's over... you can't win or sustain a campaign.
