william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
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IL has the worse finances and second worst net out migration of any state. NY has the worst net out migration
Then there is tax burden, regulatory burden and various other factors but out migration is what destroys the tax base leading to default. Percentage of net out migration is even more important. MS seems to be doing much better on this metric than NY, IL and CA combined, which is at least somewhat counter-intuitive. Proximity to the Gulf, Memphis, Nashville and New Orleans is the only set of reasons I can think of for living in MS. IL and NY are in the worse shape but do they have enough votes to stay in business by getting federal bail-outs? I don't know but I do know that the SALT deduction cap is going to hit hard and soon and most likely the least prepared state at risk of default is likely to go under first. CA with its billions in insurance pay-outs is likely to at least the first to flirt with default because those payments for damage are not subject to direct taxation at any level of government.
Then there is tax burden, regulatory burden and various other factors but out migration is what destroys the tax base leading to default. Percentage of net out migration is even more important. MS seems to be doing much better on this metric than NY, IL and CA combined, which is at least somewhat counter-intuitive. Proximity to the Gulf, Memphis, Nashville and New Orleans is the only set of reasons I can think of for living in MS. IL and NY are in the worse shape but do they have enough votes to stay in business by getting federal bail-outs? I don't know but I do know that the SALT deduction cap is going to hit hard and soon and most likely the least prepared state at risk of default is likely to go under first. CA with its billions in insurance pay-outs is likely to at least the first to flirt with default because those payments for damage are not subject to direct taxation at any level of government.
