The bond bubble bust

Discussion in 'Economy' started by william the wie, Nov 3, 2010.

  1. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Bill Gross, Warren Buffet, the Aden sisters and almost all other respected interest rate followers are expecting a near term bust in bonds and many are talking about a 20-30 year bear market in bonds. This could be a mild bear with 30 year treasuries over 30 ears rising to 8% yield. OTOH a rise to 20+% over 20 years is within the range of possibilities. So other than buying treasury LEAPs what are the other effects and markets to keep in mind?
     
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  2. topspin
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    topspin BANNED

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    I'm praying to Jah for that. We'll have a miny boom in stocks. I'll buy those bonds all day at 8%
     
  3. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    To what do Buffet, Gross and the sistahs attribute this collapse in the bond market?

    I don't doubt it, the US should be one of the PIIGS, as should Japan. But apparently that hasn't been the case.
     
  4. topspin
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    topspin BANNED

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    the elimination of fear of socialism will boost equities and crush bonds.
     
  5. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    yea well bernanke is about to submarine the dollar again...good luck on your yields being worth a warm bucket of spit, hes only putting off the inevitable. he was supposed to have started months ago winding back the int. rate. instead hes all in, or that is we are , suckers along for the ride to perdition.

    btw- I have been in a cali munny in big way, AKP, it has performed very will for the last 2 years, its been going soft though, and I am out. Times are about to change, big time here.
     
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    topspin BANNED

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    good luck buying food with an IOU
     
  7. Skull Pilot
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    Skull Pilot Platinum Member

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    Blond Bubble Butts

    NICE

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    What I missed completely is that a while back Marketwatch had an analysis of the STS system going back to 1693 on the LSE. STS is easy to remember but hard to explain.

    Buy after halloween day, then sell in May and walk away. That little rhyme will make you serious money and avert serious losses 5 out of 6 times only nobody knows why. Due to almost all stock markets being in the northern hemisphere it is called the Seasonal Trading System.

    Well the Fed announced it would reinforce this cycle by using QE II during the STS period and then stop during the start of the down cycle (more usually the flat period of the cycle but it will be a down cycle this time due to Fed action.) As to Gross, Buffet and the Aden sisters they all use somewhat different approaches. Also the demographics really suck next year due to it being 43 years after the bottom of the birth dearth in 1968. The TIPS auction for a yield of -055% is another bad sign so there are a lot of reasons to expect bad times ahead and the people I mentioned didn't give enough detail about what weighting they gave to the various signals for me to explain their calls. I can and have explained why I agree with these calls.
     
  9. uscitizen
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    uscitizen Senior Member

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    Umm won't this up our nation debt or at least the money/interest we pay on our debt?
     
  10. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Not technically but volatility will go even further through the roof as the Fed does it 1990s BOJ imitation so we can have our very own lost decade or two.
     

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