Solar Panel production- China eats our lunch

[Oddball]

Link?

How is that relevant to Oregon?

 

[Douger]

Trajan, I used to work in this industry and a friend owns the biggest wholesale network for solar components. The problem is one of labor costs and the speed with which China can ramp up an industry.

yes I believe I alluded to both.It is not cost effective. Its as simple as that. Whatever excuse we wish to employ, in the end it doesn't matter.

Thin film is far more cost effective at our labor rates, but not at Chinese labor rates. Esp when China also subsidizes new and increasingly high tech industries.

we have been subsidizing ours too.




agreed.





agreed, sadly we are not.

I hope we fare much better in the development of better battery technology. But I doubt it, even R & D costs a fraction as much in China as it does here.

this the internet and trust is hard to come by but I'll say it anyway, trust me when I tell you, that I speak to folks who work in R&D, at the tip of the spear on this and lithium technology, and we are not close, in fact we are maybe 20% of the way there when bush gave them their first stipend guarantee.

Even then, it just may not be doable, comparative labor costs or not. We think the anser is think films but even then...see my closing blurb.

Chinese industry also has several other points that take costs down which we will never lose- a real Osha type authority as over-watch meaning little to no safety regs., an ability to basically take technology at will and use it patents be damned and in that any co. who gets access to their market has to lcense aspects of their technology to them meaning huge R&D cost savings and a biggey- no Environmental regulatory agency worth speaking of.

I will look for some pics I took when I was in Dalian watching a Fab get started up. From ground breaking to near completion, tool installs etc. its a horror show.

China is a communist corporation. And they are cleaning capitalism's clock!

yup. But- they do not have an educated workforce, even on the basic level, they have to learn everything, though they are trying to change that ( and we are going backwards ) . AND within the next 20 years their demographic bomb as to one child regs and the a-fore mentioned Heath aspects of their workers will start taking a toil along with environmental aspects as well.


they can within 5 years make panels so cheap it just might be worth giving it a shot, say for ,my home. I had a guy here 6 months ago. With a;ll fo the new discounts and gov. subsidy etc. 30% right off the top, even then, he looked me straight in the face and told me even with just a 2% inflationary increase in energy costs, I would be looking at minimum 18 years to see any daylight on the investment in solar panels etc,...........

no effing way am I or anyone in their right mind especially now, going to drop 25 k on something that will take 18 years to see clear of and that does not include loss of interest on that capital in the intervening years, that I can get in a meager 3% fund.

My windmill is just now breaking even. Six years.
My solar will be another 5.
Freedom is rather costly.

 

[Trajan]

It took CA about 1.5 months to approve 7 solar plants.

oh yea I want to seea link to that too...I work with the BAAQMD ( bay area air quality mgt.) people all the time, never happened.....prove me wrong.

 

[Trajan]

Trajan, I used to work in this industry and a friend owns the biggest wholesale network for solar components. The problem is one of labor costs and the speed with which China can ramp up an industry.

yes I believe I alluded to both.It is not cost effective. Its as simple as that. Whatever excuse we wish to employ, in the end it doesn't matter.







we have been subsidizing ours too.




agreed.





agreed, sadly we are not.




this the internet and trust is hard to come by but I'll say it anyway, trust me when I tell you, that I speak to folks who work in R&D, at the tip of the spear on this and lithium technology, and we are not close, in fact we are maybe 20% of the way there when bush gave them their first stipend guarantee.

Even then, it just may not be doable, comparative labor costs or not. We think the anser is think films but even then...see my closing blurb.

Chinese industry also has several other points that take costs down which we will never lose- a real Osha type authority as over-watch meaning little to no safety regs., an ability to basically take technology at will and use it patents be damned and in that any co. who gets access to their market has to lcense aspects of their technology to them meaning huge R&D cost savings and a biggey- no Environmental regulatory agency worth speaking of.

I will look for some pics I took when I was in Dalian watching a Fab get started up. From ground breaking to near completion, tool installs etc. its a horror show.

China is a communist corporation. And they are cleaning capitalism's clock!

yup. But- they do not have an educated workforce, even on the basic level, they have to learn everything, though they are trying to change that ( and we are going backwards ) . AND within the next 20 years their demographic bomb as to one child regs and the a-fore mentioned Heath aspects of their workers will start taking a toil along with environmental aspects as well.


they can within 5 years make panels so cheap it just might be worth giving it a shot, say for ,my home. I had a guy here 6 months ago. With a;ll fo the new discounts and gov. subsidy etc. 30% right off the top, even then, he looked me straight in the face and told me even with just a 2% inflationary increase in energy costs, I would be looking at minimum 18 years to see any daylight on the investment in solar panels etc,...........

no effing way am I or anyone in their right mind especially now, going to drop 25 k on something that will take 18 years to see clear of and that does not include loss of interest on that capital in the intervening years, that I can get in a meager 3% fund.

My windmill is just now breaking even. Six years.
My solar will be another 5.
Freedom is rather costly.

uh huh....show me. whats your sell back ratio btw?

 

[loosecannon]

You are correct, it was considerably longer than 1.5 months, but it still got fast tracked:

Fast-Track Renewable Energy Projects

 

[Trajan]

You are correct, it was considerably longer than 1.5 months, but it still got fast tracked:

Fast-Track Renewable Energy Projects

this doesn't appear to address state regulatory commission grants of permits and the usual plethora of green agencies who do their level best in the state court system to interupt federal process by raising local issues etc. part and parcel to their reason to breath; obfuscate, derail/deny, at the very least get the projects put off until they wither and die via a cornucopia of lawsuits etc. .


oh and;

thus making them eligible for economic stimulus funding under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

yes, let the pork roll.....

we are all paying for this.

"Green jobs"...and as my topic post described, we have for all practical purposes lost the local markets as in making a go of it via equipment manufacturing etc. In short even IF thin films becomes technologically feasible for residential application, the Chinese will just dive under the bottom line as they have for panels now, in their present model state.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

It is next to impossible to compete with China currently.

As mentioned above, Chinese government invests DIRECTLY into building plants/R&D facilities and salaries of said.
American government does not invest. The American government gives mass sums to whatever politically looks best, and gives the quickest (albeit usually inaccurate) return so they can brag about it in the next election.
At the same time China usually has uninhibited access to the U.S. market without the costs of a U.S. manufacturing plant in the same market in labor costs, environmental regulatory costs, taxes etc.

This and consumers of solar technology will without hesitation choose whatever is cheaper, regardless of any other factor - just like the American consumer does.

 

[Trajan]

Well sorry but ,I am gonna say it..... I told you so……chose the most popular section if this doesn’t come up…

They are in fact closing their ‘older’ factory laying folks off etc. ...why? becasue bus model has been shot, by the Chinese..... presented by the bay area’s own Pravda.


sorry for the 15 second commercial...

http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/video?id=7763976




chose the most popular section if the video isn't in the featured big frame.. search solyndra...


San Francisco Bay Area Breaking News Video from KGO

 

[Navy1960]

Solyndra Inc., a San Francisco Bay Area solar power system manufacturing company, said that it is closing one of its factories to save $60 million in capital expenditures, laying off 40 employees and letting the contracts for more than 100 temporary workers expire, according to The Los Angeles Times.

Green Technology -Green Tech and Solar Company Solyndra to Close One Factory, Cut Jobs

Sharp Solar, based in Japan, was, until this year, the #1 manufacturer of solar cells worldwide. They are pioneers in the solar manufacturing industry, beginning research in 1959 and mass production in 1963. Sharp began designing and producing panels for residential solar energy systems in the mid-1990s. In addition to silicon solar panels, Sharp has also moved into the realm of thin-film solar cells.

As of February 2008, the German PV manufacturer Q-Cells surpassed Sharp as the #1 producer of solar cells. Founded in 1999, Q-Cells is a very young company which has risen like wildfire along with the solar industry itself. Although branching out into other solar technologies, the company has focused mainly on silicon cells. In fact, their recent ascent to the top is likely due to their ability to acquire an adequate amount of silicon during the recent polysilicon shortage.
Right up there with Sharp and Q-Cells is Suntech Power Corporation
Top Global Solar Manufacturers: Is the US One of Them?

Suntech is a Chinese company, and as I have been saying for many months now this so called " green jobs" mantra being put forth by the current Administration and others is a pipe dream. The reality is that policies that lead to limiting some energy sources in favor of others will lead to even more of those so called "green jobs" being created in places like China.

 

[Old Rocks]

Given that the production potential for the Portland-Salem Oregon area in solar will be annually about the same as this project, I think that we have a good chance to compete with Germany and China in this area. However, we do need to invest in major R&D in this area. There are technologies now that have the possibility of producing cells that are 50% or more efficient.

First Solar cleared to start China project -report | Reuters

Nov 3 (Reuters) - First Solar Inc (FSLR.O) has received China's approval to start preperatory work on a 30-megawatt (MW) photovoltaic project in Inner Mongolia, the 21st Century Business Herald reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed sources.

But First Solar would still have to submit a feasibility study for the project to the National Development and Reform Commission, the newspaper said.

In August, local media reported that construction of the project would not begin until 2011. [ID:nTOE67N00F]

First Solar, the largest operator in the sector with a market value of $11.7 billion, produces modules that use cadmium telluride to produce electricity from sunlight, rather than polysilicon.

The U.S. company has said it expects its Chinese plant to eventually have a production capacity of 2 gigawatts in four stages, with total investment expected to reach $4-6 billion by 2019. (Reporting by Ruby Lian and Soo Ai Peng, Editing by Chris Lewis)

 

[mdn2000]

It took CA about 1.5 months to approve 7 solar plants.

bullshit, they were rushed threw in 1.5 months. They have been in the process much longer. Either way, just in time for the deadline, to meet the deadline they did not even need the Environmental impact study. That comes later.

For green energy that will destroy the environment we can waive the EIS in order to qualify for Federal money. Thank god Chevron the big oil company got their project through in time.

Its a political approval for election year points.

 

[Old Rocks]

10 gw more of solar online last year, 200 more of wind. Even with the current major recession, solar and wind are growing faster than any other form of energy. And will continue to as the price will continue to inch down for wind, and will come down for solar in big leaps.

 

[mdn2000]

10 gw more of solar online last year, 200 more of wind. Even with the current major recession, solar and wind are growing faster than any other form of energy. And will continue to as the price will continue to inch down for wind, and will come down for solar in big leaps.

Got startled from your sleep Old Crock.

The Solar will equal a 30% rise in electric rates, which also raises the price of water, thanks Old Crock, I just have money to waste. Further the Solar has failed, the 10 is installed capacity, actual output has been extremely low, so low, if challenged Old Crock cannot produce the data.

Old Crock, name one solar power plant and give us its actual electrical output, not its advertised installed capacity.

 

[Old Rocks]

Solar power in Germany - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Germany is one of the world's top photovoltaics (PV) installers, with a solar PV capacity in 2009 of 8,877 megawatts (MW); this generated 6,200 gigawatt-hours (GW·h) of electricity in 2009 — an average power of 710 MW.[1] Solar power now meets about 1.1 percent of Germany's electricity demand, a share that some market analysts expect could reach 25 percent by 2050.[2]

 

[mdn2000]

Solar power in Germany - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Germany is one of the world's top photovoltaics (PV) installers, with a solar PV capacity in 2009 of 8,877 megawatts (MW); this generated 6,200 gigawatt-hours (GW·h) of electricity in 2009 — an average power of 710 MW.[1] Solar power now meets about 1.1 percent of Germany's electricity demand, a share that some market analysts expect could reach 25 percent by 2050.[2]

yet the economy of the Euro if close to death, being propped up with US tax dollars. The USA is now bailing out the German banks who gave loans to Green Energy.

Great idea, ruin the entire economy of Europe, destroy the Euro, all because of subsidies given to poor sources of electricity.

This is like trying to win the INDY 500 in a 1918 Model T, forced upon the race through government law, guaranteed to win with my tax dollars, no matter the cost to me, my future and my family.

 

[Trajan]

Solar power in Germany - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Germany is one of the world's top photovoltaics (PV) installers, with a solar PV capacity in 2009 of 8,877 megawatts (MW); this generated 6,200 gigawatt-hours (GW·h) of electricity in 2009 — an average power of 710 MW.[1] Solar power now meets about 1.1 percent of Germany's electricity demand, a share that some market analysts expect could reach 25 percent by 2050.[2]

hold up...so in 35 years they will add a 2500% increase in their electrical OUTPUT? how many orders of magnitude is that?

so every year they have to add...uhm what %? dude....think about it.

 

[mdn2000]

Solar power in Germany - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Germany is one of the world's top photovoltaics (PV) installers, with a solar PV capacity in 2009 of 8,877 megawatts (MW); this generated 6,200 gigawatt-hours (GW·h) of electricity in 2009 — an average power of 710 MW.[1] Solar power now meets about 1.1 percent of Germany's electricity demand, a share that some market analysts expect could reach 25 percent by 2050.[2]

hold up...so in 35 years they will add a 2500% increase in their electrical OUTPUT? how many orders of magnitude is that?

so every year they have to add...uhm what %? dude....think about it.

Old Crock is so lost he posts Solar propaganda in a Geothermal thread.