Severodonetsk coming under Russian control

[Bleipriester]

Selensky says that 100 Ukrainian soldiers die each day in the conflict. Up to 500 wounded per day according to the Secretary of Defense. That would make losses of up to 60.000 soldiers, half of the military´s eastern presence.

Schwere Verluste für Russland: Soldaten klagen über Hitze, Moral und Ausrüstung

Im Ukraine-Krieg sterben täglich Soldaten, auf beiden Seiten. Die Verluste häufen sich – ein Überblick.

www.kreiszeitung.de

 

[Bleipriester]

What are you babbling about? You think that portable anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems support your claim about the 'entire western arsenal'?

Don´t distract. The deliveries are massive, period.

 

[para bellum]

You cannot draw a conclusion without knowledge of the Ukrainian losses. Also, the pre-invasion size was 44.000.

I don't need to know Ukrainian losses to know what 50% casualties means.

44,000 was the combined active duty for LPR and DPR. The casualties listed by the Ombudsman only say DPR.

Most of these DPR forces were in the south- Kherson to Mariupol area. LPR units were up around Kharkiv during this phase. The Russian regular forces are concentrated between Popasna and Izium. The group out of Popasna is a special "Operational Maneuver Group" that Dvornikov created before Putin relieved him. That is the most capable group in the Donbas, made up of VDV and Spetsnaz units and well equipped.

There are multiple reports of DPR fighters refusing to fight in SDonetsk- basically saying they don't think they should be there after what they've already been through.

The fact that Russia is sending DPR to SDonetsk shows that the LPR is equally depleted.

Artillery lets you take territory, but you need infantry to hold it.

 

[ESay]

Don´t distract. The deliveries are massive, period.

Read this article at least, to know a bit more than your sewer sources

Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russia, intelligence report reveals

Exclusive: Grinding conflict in east is ‘seriously demoralising’ Ukrainian forces, dossier says

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Bleipriester]

I don't need to know Ukrainian losses to know what 50% casualties means.

44,000 was the combined active duty for LPR and DPR. The casualties listed by the Ombudsman only say DPR.

Most of these DPR forces were in the south- Kherson to Mariupol area. LPR units were up around Kharkiv during this phase. The Russian regular forces are concentrated between Popasna and Izium. The group out of Popasna is a special "Operational Maneuver Group" that Dvornikov created before Putin relieved him. That is the most capable group in the Donbas, made up of VDV and Spetsnaz units and well equipped.

There are multiple reports of DPR fighters refusing to fight in SDonetsk- basically saying they don't think they should be there after what they've already been through.

The fact that Russia is sending DPR to SDonetsk shows that the LPR is equally depleted.

Artillery lets you take territory, but you need infantry to hold it.

I don´t think that is true.

 

[Bleipriester]

Read this article at least, to know a bit more than your sewer sources

Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russia, intelligence report reveals

Exclusive: Grinding conflict in east is ‘seriously demoralising’ Ukrainian forces, dossier says

www.independent.co.uk

The problem with heavy arms is that the colorful republics of Europe have only few of them. They were busy creating gay unicorns that they put in sharp contrast to the islamic peoples they have imported. You all know, they rather belong in a mad house than in a parliament.
But the anti-air and anti-tank weapons delivered could be very dangerous for the T-72 and Su-25 that Russia fields.

 

[ESay]

The problem with heavy arms is that the colorful republics of Europe have only few of them. They were busy creating gay unicorns that they put in sharp contrast to the islamic peoples they have imported. You all know, they rather belong in a mad house than in a parliament.
But the anti-air and anti-tank weapons delivered could be very dangerous for the T-72 and Su-25 that Russia fields.

I haven't claimed they weren't dangerous, and they played a great part in the first stage of the war. Don't play a fool, dude.

 

[Bleipriester]

I haven't claimed they weren't dangerous, and they played a great part in the first stage of the war. Don't play a fool, dude.

I don´t.
As for heavy artillery, they have hundreds of pieces. As for MBTs, they have hundreds of them.
Any call for 12 funny German made artillery pieces must look like a bad joke for anyone who has the numbers. If hundreds don´t work, 12 more also won´t work.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Ukrainian_Ground_Forces

 

[ESay]

I don´t.
As for heavy artillery, they have hundreds of pieces. As for MBTs, they have hundreds of them.
Any call for 12 funny German made artillery pieces must look like a bad joke for anyone who has the numbers. If hundreds don´t work, 12 more also won´t work.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Ukrainian_Ground_Forces

Read the article I provided to you once again, and then again and so on. Until a spark flashes in you brainwashed head.

 

[para bellum]

This war has been fighting by mostly Soviet style hardware, with the exception of some number of portable anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems and some artillery system delivered a couple of weeks ago in quite modest numbers.

And you were right the other day. Reports are Germany is saying "not before winter" on the MRLS and ADA.

The Donbas will be settled by the time anything from Germany materializes.

 

[ESay]

And you were right the other day. Reports are Germany is saying "not before winter" on the MRLS and ADA.

The Donbas will be settled by the time anything from Germany materializes.

And it will be a great success for Ukraine if only the Donbas.

 

[Bleipriester]

Read the article I provided to you once again, and then again and so on. Until a spark flashes in you brainwashed head.

lol, no thanks.

 

[para bellum]

Read this article at least, to know a bit more than your sewer sources

Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russia, intelligence report reveals

Exclusive: Grinding conflict in east is ‘seriously demoralising’ Ukrainian forces, dossier says

www.independent.co.uk

Btw, The Independent is owned by an ex-KGB, now Oligarch Alexander Lebedev. He supposedly transferred it to his son, but he is still in charge of the digital media. He was one of the first to come under western sanctions.

The Independent puts out a lot of stories intended to demoralize Ukraine.

 

[ESay]

Btw, The Independent is owned by an ex-KGB, now Oligarch Alexander Lebedev. He supposedly transferred it to his son, but he is still in charge of the digital media. He was one of the first to come under western sanctions.

The Independent puts out a lot of stories intended to demoralize Ukraine.

Maybe, usually I don't read the Independent. Just this article made some noise in Ukraine. But nevertheless, the situation in the Donbas really hard. This is said also by people who are fighting there.

 

[ESay]

para bellum
I recently read this interview. It is certainly worth reading and corresponds with my feelings about what is going on.

The interview is on Russian, but I think you can translate it easily via online translator. Maybe you will be interested.

Военный аналитик Агил Рустамзаде: «Россию изматывают, а Украине не дают упасть. Придется воевать вдолгую»

Правда о войне

zn.ua

 

[para bellum]

para bellum
I recently read this interview. It is certainly worth reading and corresponds with my feelings about what is going on.

The interview is on Russian, but I think you can translate it easily via online translator. Maybe you will be interested.

Thanks ESay, that was a good read. It strikes me as a sober assessment overall.

There is a little bit of disconnect between when aid is promised and it actually materializes on the battlefield, at least for some people. We're only starting to see the results of the first commitments of NATO heavy weapons, and the materiel and trained operators entering the fight will be ramping up steadily for the next couple months.

The analyst is right in that the numbers announced are not enough to make a knockout blow in this phase of the war. He may be right in his reasoning, I don't know- I think there is more to the calculus to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine than he allows for.

 

[ESay]

Thanks ESay, that was a good read. It strikes me as a sober assessment overall.

There is a little bit of disconnect between when aid is promised and it actually materializes on the battlefield, at least for some people. We're only starting to see the results of the first commitments of NATO heavy weapons, and the materiel and trained operators entering the fight will be ramping up steadily for the next couple months.

The analyst is right in that the numbers announced are not enough to make a knockout blow in this phase of the war. He may be right in his reasoning, I don't know- I think there is more to the calculus to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine than he allows for.

What is interesting is that some experts said two months ago or so that a protracted war was the best strategy for Ukraine. That Ukraine can't win Russia, to say nothing about massive offensive operations or strikes on Russian territory. The best way is to drag Russia into exhausting warfare.

This strategy is realizing now. The other side of the coin is that this war is exhausting for Ukraine too. Ukrainian army suffers heavy loses, some ammunition is almost extinct, all this lowers morale of Ukrainian servicemen.

Well, the time will show how the things will be ongoing. We haven't seen yet the effect of using Western heavy weapons on the battlefield. It will take some time.

 

[ESay]

He may be right in his reasoning, I don't know- I think there is more to the calculus to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine than he allows for

What do you mean?

 

[para bellum]

What do you mean?

He is saying a protracted bleeding of Russia is the safe option. If the West gave Ukraine the weapons to decisively crush Russia, Putin might react to the humiliation with a tactical nuclear weapon.

I don't think that would happen. I agree that bleeding Russia slowly is safer, but not for the Ukrainians doing the bleeding.

A P5 nation (who is not under threat) using a nuclear weapon on a non-nuclear NNPT signatory state renders the entire post WW2 security order null and void, from the UN charter forward. It would be a new iron curtain around Russia and even China and India would have to pick a side.

Imo that is a too high price for Russia to pay for Ukraine. Putin didn't plan for WW3 and a new world order- he planned for a quick coup in Ukraine that the rest of the world would angrily accept as a fait accompli.

That means to me, that the recalcitrance from the west is not merited. Much more can be done for Ukraine that will absolutely drive Putin mad, but there isn't a damn thing he can do except make empty threats.

On a positive note, the UA made some very significant holes in the Donbas/Zaporizhzhia ammunition supply last week. Hopefully that will give the guys in the trenches some relief.

 

[ESay]

He is saying a protracted bleeding of Russia is the safe option. If the West gave Ukraine the weapons to decisively crush Russia, Putin might react to the humiliation with a tactical nuclear weapon.

I don't think that would happen. I agree that bleeding Russia slowly is safer, but not for the Ukrainians doing the bleeding.

A P5 nation (who is not under threat) using a nuclear weapon on a non-nuclear NNPT signatory state renders the entire post WW2 security order null and void, from the UN charter forward. It would be a new iron curtain around Russia and even China and India would have to pick a side.

Imo that is a too high price for Russia to pay for Ukraine. Putin didn't plan for WW3 and a new world order- he planned for a quick coup in Ukraine that the rest of the world would angrily accept as a fait accompli.

That means to me, that the recalcitrance from the west is not merited. Much more can be done for Ukraine that will absolutely drive Putin mad, but there isn't a damn thing he can do except make empty threats.

On a positive note, the UA made some very significant holes in the Donbas/Zaporizhzhia ammunition supply last week. Hopefully that will give the guys in the trenches some relief.

Well, we will see. The coming month will show how effective the deliveries of Western artillery systems are. This summer will be a hard period, it seems.

BTW, from time to time I visit a certain Russian forum which consists mainly of 'patriots'. To be aware of mindset there and what Russian propaganda machine feeds to their followers. Previously, a thread about the war in Ukraine was simply called 'War. We will win', then it was changed to 'Special military operation in Ukraine', now it is called 'Special military operation of protection the Donbas people'.

Who knows, maybe this means something, maybe not.