'Saudis give Israel green light to attack Iran'

[toomuchtime_]

What I am picking up from the article in the initial post for the thread and elsewhere is that Saudi Arabia hasn't exactly given 'permission' for Israel to take care of the Iranian nuclear problem, but that Israeli intelligence has concluded they would secretly welcome such a move. Rational Arabs don't trust Iran's leadership any more than we do.

Somebody earlier said that Iran would never attack Israel with nuclear weapons because it would 'endanger Palestinians too'. I don't think that opinion will hold up under any kind of scrutiny. If anybody thinks Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gives a flying fig about the Palestinians, just track the food, clothing, medicine, and other critical support Iran has provided to the Palestinians. It openly supports Hamas and furnishes plenty of rockets and explosives for suicide bombs, but the tally for that other stuff so far: I beieve zero. Iran also magnanimously takes in a few wounded Hamas soldiers, but accepting Palestinian civilian refugees who need to escape the war zone? I believe the tally on that is also zero.

Iran almost certainly cheers every civilian casualty as such can be used to generate bleeding heart criticism against Israel. You find no Iranian criticism of Hamas for intentionally placing its rocket launchers and ammo dumps in heavily populated civilian areas to ensure that enemy fire will cause collateral damage.

Do you really think the Iranian leadership would care who else got hurt if it could take out the hated Israel with impunity?

Of course, it is unlikely Iran could do this with impunity. It is widely believed Israel has a second strike capability, that it can launch nuclear armed cruise missiles from its dolphin class submarines. The question is, does the leadership believe what it preaches about martyrdom being desirable in the pursuit of a just cause sufficiently to accept a nuclear retaliation as the price it had to pay to destroy Israel?

 

[Foxfyre]

Good point. But if Israel is gone, would the sub captain order an attack and subject himself and his crew to direct attack from the Iranian Navy? Or would he realize the war was lost and take his crew out of harm's way? It would be a calculated risk for Iran, yes, but I think Ahmadinejad is crazy enough to take it. And I think he would count on there being much bluster and condemnation from the UN, etc., but that nobody would have the courage or stomach to order a military strike against him.

 

[editec]

I think most of you people are childishly full of shit

You have bought into the whole "the Irans are inhuman and have no respect for life" right wing koolaid.

People like ya'll were telling us the same tired-assed nonsense about the Russians, back when they were the right's boogiemen, too.

Everybody loves their own children, folks.

The probability that the leadership of Iran (regardless of who it is, moderate or extremists) is going to nuke Isreal when they know perfectly well that Iran would end up vaporized is zero point doodle squat.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Good point. But if Israel is gone, would the sub captain order an attack and subject himself and his crew to direct attack from the Iranian Navy? Or would he realize the war was lost and take his crew out of harm's way? It would be a calculated risk for Iran, yes, but I think Ahmadinejad is crazy enough to take it. And I think he would count on there being much bluster and condemnation from the UN, etc., but that nobody would have the courage or stomach to order a military strike against him.

For many years the US relied on its second strike capability from its submarines as a critical part of its nuclear deterrent, and no one ever questioned whether US submarine commanders would follow orders. I am confident Israeli sub commanders would also follow orders and I am confident that their superiors considered this question carefully before giving them their assignments. To my mind, the question is, do the Iranian leaders believe in their professed doctrine of salvation through martyrdom sufficiently to pay the horrific price of a nuclear retaliation in order to destroy, or attempt to destroy, Israel? Imo, no responsible Israeli government will assume the Iranian leadership wouldn't be willing to pay that price unless that leadership gave them substantial reason to think so, and that is not likely to happen.

 

[Epsilon Delta]

Toomuchtime, you'd have to be real dense to think that Khomeini or Ahemdinejad are seriously considering incinerating themselves, their wives, their children, and all their buddies to 'wipe Israel off the map and take over the world'.

This isn't a James Bond flick. Get serious.

It's just plain silly to think that you or I have any real insight into these people beyond what they claim to believe in. The fact is that salvation through martyrdom is a core value of this leadership that it has been preaching to the Iranian people for decades. If they are not cynical hypocrites, they are willing to die and see their families die in order to do what they believe they must.

It is just plain silly, and you already answered the question, but I'll make it real clear:

THEY ARE CYNICAL HYPOCRITES. Obviously.

 

[elvis]

I think most of you people are childishly full of shit

You have bought into the whole "the Irans are inhuman and have no respect for life" right wing koolaid.

People like ya'll were telling us the same tired-assed nonsense about the Russians, back when they were the right's boogiemen, too.

Everybody loves their own children, folks.

The probability that the leadership of Iran (regardless of who it is, moderate or extremists) is going to nuke Isreal when they know perfectly well that Iran would end up vaporized is zero point doodle squat.

1. show us where anyone said the Iranians are subhuman.

2. maybe Jimmy carter is right wing to you, but he isn't to most.

3. would you like to reconcile your claim that Iran loves its children when Ahmanutjob is hoping to bring about Armageddon to usher in the 12th Imam?

 

[Foxfyre]

Everybody loves their own children, folks.

Having lived as long as I have and having witnessed up close and personal some of the greatest inhumanity committed by humans to humankind, I do not believe that everybody loves their own children.

I do not believe that even those who do love their own children will choose life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness of his/her child. To wit Arab mothers who proudly hand over their children to be suicide bombers and thereby gain their early admittance into heaven complete with virgins and all. To wit those who sell their children into slavery or prostitution or who abandom them to whatever fate that might befall them. And to wit those dictators who live in obscene luxury while allowing children to starve or languish without heat or medicine in the most squalid conditions.

And I think a crazy man has no love whatsoever in his heart for Jewish children and could easily pull the trigger to kill them all in slow, painful, agonizing ways if he had the power to do so. And a crazy man might take a calculated risk to choose to do so.

The Iranian people overall are pleasant, funny, full-of-life, and easy to be around people. Some of their leadership are religious fanatics incapable of caring about anybody but their own warped vision and power.

To fail to acknowledge that is to accept probability of unimaginable human suffering.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Toomuchtime, you'd have to be real dense to think that Khomeini or Ahemdinejad are seriously considering incinerating themselves, their wives, their children, and all their buddies to 'wipe Israel off the map and take over the world'.

This isn't a James Bond flick. Get serious.

It's just plain silly to think that you or I have any real insight into these people beyond what they claim to believe in. The fact is that salvation through martyrdom is a core value of this leadership that it has been preaching to the Iranian people for decades. If they are not cynical hypocrites, they are willing to die and see their families die in order to do what they believe they must.

It is just plain silly, and you already answered the question, but I'll make it real clear:

THEY ARE CYNICAL HYPOCRITES. Obviously.

I'll bite. With respect to the issue of martyrdom, how have you determined that they are hypocrites and not true zealots?

 

[Toro]

Of course Saudi Arabia would stand by and let Israel attack Iran. Saudi Arabia despises Iran and Wahabi'is view Shi'as as heretics.

 

[elvis]

Of course Saudi Arabia would stand by and let Israel attack Iran. Saudi Arabia despises Iran and Wahabi'is view Shi'as as heretics.

correct.

 

[Foxfyre]

I doubt that Wahabi Muslims hate the Shias more than they despise the Jews. But for a fact nobody in the Middle East fears unprovoked aggression from Israel, but they sure understand that a nutcase in Iran could cause a great deal of grief for everybody.

They can't attack Iran without generating resentments among other Middle East countries. But let Israel do it and then they can pretend to hate Israel all the more for its aggression against their Islamic brethren.

 

[Toro]

I doubt that Wahabi Muslims hate the Shias more than they despise the Jews.

That doesn't really matter. The Saudis discriminate against the Shi'as in Saudi Arabia and Iran sends money to them. Both are regional political rivals. The Saudis generally have supported American involvement in Iraq and have funded Sunni factions whereas Iran has funded and supported Shi'as in Iraq.

Its messy and geopolitics is often clear as mud.

 

[Epsilon Delta]

I'll bite. With respect to the issue of martyrdom, how have you determined that they are hypocrites and not true zealots?

C'mon man, if the fact that they're POLITICIANS isn't enough, then what you have to answer is WHY haven't they just done it already? Why don't they send their entire air force with every single missile they have to Israel right now? Why not send the entire navy over there right now with everything they have? Why don't they send their 1,000,000-man army marching over there to Israel, and just wait for the doomsday showers retaliation? They don't need nuclear weapons for martyrdom. That's just stupid.

I'm sure that the Iranian leadership doesn't mind incineration, I'm sure they don't mind martyrdom, but it is not THEIR OWN martyrdom. Just like any politicians who send their soldiers to war. Yes, glory, war, conquest, but it isn't THEM in the front lines. It's up to you to prove that the Iranian leadership is that different. They're cynical hypocrites, just like, say, the Pope, the Politburos, or American presidents.

 

[toomuchtime_]

I'll bite. With respect to the issue of martyrdom, how have you determined that they are hypocrites and not true zealots?

C'mon man, if the fact that they're POLITICIANS isn't enough, then what you have to answer is WHY haven't they just done it already? Why don't they send their entire air force with every single missile they have to Israel right now? Why not send the entire navy over there right now with everything they have? Why don't they send their 1,000,000-man army marching over there to Israel, and just wait for the doomsday showers retaliation? They don't need nuclear weapons for martyrdom. That's just stupid.

I'm sure that the Iranian leadership doesn't mind incineration, I'm sure they don't mind martyrdom, but it is not THEIR OWN martyrdom. Just like any politicians who send their soldiers to war. Yes, glory, war, conquest, but it isn't THEM in the front lines. It's up to you to prove that the Iranian leadership is that different. They're cynical hypocrites, just like, say, the Pope, the Politburos, or American presidents.

Iran has no ability to do significant harm to Israel with its conventional forces, so it makes no sense to ask why they haven't, and the argument that the leadership can't be believed simply because they are politicians is just plain silly. Surely you must believe politicians sometimes tell the truth.

Despite Israel's formidable military strength, because of its small size, lack of strategic depth, a nuclear attack could pretty much wipe it out, and that means the stakes are just too high for any Israeli government to just wait and see if the Iranian leadership believes that martyrdom is as desirable as they tell the Iranian people it is. That means it would be immoral and irresponsible of any Israeli government not to take out Iran's nuclear program before it has a bomb.

Would you seriously want to gamble tens of millions of lives on your hunch that the Iranian leadership doesn't believe what it preaches to the people of Iran?

 

[Epsilon Delta]

You have it all wrong. The point you're arguing is simply too outlandish. You're the one who has 1) the hunch they're seeking nuclear weapons (an acceptable hunch to have, I agree) and 2) the HUNCH that they'll simply incinerate themselves to destroy Israel. It's absolute speculation with no basis. They have NEVER claimed that they will "wipe out israel... EVEN IF IT MEANS WE'LL ALL DIE." Where did you get this idea from? You say that we have to believe SOME of the things the Iranian leadership has said, but they have not said they'll do that. They have said they're not seeking nuclear weapons. Why don't we listen to that? They've said the elections weren't rigged. Why don't we listen to that?

If they're seriously THAT insane, then as I said before, they could throw the entire country on top of Israel. They'll lose and they'd all die, but hey, by heaven's name they'll take some of those Jews down with them!!

You certainly don't mind the prospect of killing tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of Iranians based on your hunches about "martyrdom," despite the fact that they've never claimed, and I have seen ZERO evidence to lead me to think that they'll want THEMSELVES to be martyred. It's simply insane. If the Iranians are trying to get nukes, it's for the same reason that Israel, or Pakistan, or India, or any other country with nukes want nukes: MAD, absolute assurance against attack, huge bargaining chip, and international respect based on fear.

 

[elvis]

You have it all wrong. The point you're arguing is simply too outlandish. You're the one who has 1) the hunch they're seeking nuclear weapons (an acceptable hunch to have, I agree) and 2) the HUNCH that they'll simply incinerate themselves to destroy Israel. It's absolute speculation with no basis. They have NEVER claimed that they will "wipe out israel... EVEN IF IT MEANS WE'LL ALL DIE." Where did you get this idea from? You say that we have to believe SOME of the things the Iranian leadership has said, but they have not said they'll do that. They have said they're not seeking nuclear weapons. Why don't we listen to that? They've said the elections weren't rigged. Why don't we listen to that?

If they're seriously THAT insane, then as I said before, they could throw the entire country on top of Israel. They'll lose and they'd all die, but hey, by heaven's name they'll take some of those Jews down with them!!

You certainly don't mind the prospect of killing tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of Iranians based on your hunches about "martyrdom," despite the fact that they've never claimed, and I have seen ZERO evidence to lead me to think that they'll want THEMSELVES to be martyred. It's simply insane. If the Iranians are trying to get nukes, it's for the same reason that Israel, or Pakistan, or India, or any other country with nukes want nukes: MAD, absolute assurance against attack, huge bargaining chip, and international respect based on fear.

Khoemeni made the statement in the 1980's. ahmadinejad has said he wants to bring about apocalypse so that the 12th imam can return to Earth. If it were up to a-jad, a nuclear armed Iran is extremely dangerous.

 

[jillian]

TMT, it seems that many leftists here do not seem to be able to think in 3 dimensions, where a rogue nation like iran is obviously not going to launch an icbm from teheran into tel aviv. What they WILL do is hand a low-yield device to a terrorist group like hamas, who will place it on a delivery truck, drive under a large apartment building in tel aviv, and then take out a 5-10 square block area, killing say, 25,000 people.

What's a leftist?

I don't think understanding that certain groups of people like dead jews is a left or right wing thing. You'll find an equal number of people on the left and right who have a pathetic view of the situation... or maybe one that's wishful thinking. who knows?

As for the Saudi's current position, I'm not sure why anyone is surprised by this. It was clear in the last action agains the pals, that jordan and lebanon and egypt as well as the saudis have an interest in seeing the extremists start to get shut down. It should be even more clear to anyone who understands the situation that the more moderate arab nations NEED the balance of power restored in the region so that Iran does not stay in the powerful position it now occupies because Bush destroyed the balance between Iran and Iraq.

 

[dilloduck]

TMT, it seems that many leftists here do not seem to be able to think in 3 dimensions, where a rogue nation like iran is obviously not going to launch an icbm from teheran into tel aviv. What they WILL do is hand a low-yield device to a terrorist group like hamas, who will place it on a delivery truck, drive under a large apartment building in tel aviv, and then take out a 5-10 square block area, killing say, 25,000 people.

What's a leftist?

I don't think understanding that certain groups of people like dead jews is a left or right wing thing. You'll find an equal number of people on the left and right who have a pathetic view of the situation... or maybe one that's wishful thinking. who knows?

As for the Saudi's current position, I'm not sure why anyone is surprised by this. It was clear in the last action agains the pals, that jordan and lebanon and egypt as well as the saudis have an interest in seeing the extremists start to get shut down. It should be even more clear to anyone who understands the situation that the more moderate arab nations NEED the balance of power restored in the region so that Iran does not stay in the powerful position it now occupies because Bush destroyed the balance between Iran and Iraq.

Kuwait wasn't real thrilled about how that "balance" worked out.

 

[toomuchtime_]

You have it all wrong. The point you're arguing is simply too outlandish. You're the one who has 1) the hunch they're seeking nuclear weapons (an acceptable hunch to have, I agree) and 2) the HUNCH that they'll simply incinerate themselves to destroy Israel. It's absolute speculation with no basis. They have NEVER claimed that they will "wipe out israel... EVEN IF IT MEANS WE'LL ALL DIE." Where did you get this idea from? You say that we have to believe SOME of the things the Iranian leadership has said, but they have not said they'll do that. They have said they're not seeking nuclear weapons. Why don't we listen to that? They've said the elections weren't rigged. Why don't we listen to that?

If they're seriously THAT insane, then as I said before, they could throw the entire country on top of Israel. They'll lose and they'd all die, but hey, by heaven's name they'll take some of those Jews down with them!!

You certainly don't mind the prospect of killing tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of Iranians based on your hunches about "martyrdom," despite the fact that they've never claimed, and I have seen ZERO evidence to lead me to think that they'll want THEMSELVES to be martyred. It's simply insane. If the Iranians are trying to get nukes, it's for the same reason that Israel, or Pakistan, or India, or any other country with nukes want nukes: MAD, absolute assurance against attack, huge bargaining chip, and international respect based on fear.

Even a cursory search will show you that martyrdom is not only a core value of today's Iranian culture, but that the current regime constantly calls on the people to embrace the idea of martyrdom in the service of a just cause and especially to fight against Israel.

iran martyrdom - Google Search

Combine this with the fact that Iran has been carrying on a proxy war against Israel for years and has repeatedly called for Israel to be wiped off the map, etc., and considering how high the stakes are, it would be irresponsible for any Israeli government to wait to see if they are serious or not.

If Iran is not seeking the bomb, it would be easy to allay fears it is, and if Iran has no intentions of using it against Israel, they could make overtures to Israel to seek to allay those suspicions, but since they have done neither of these things, the Israeli government can only rely on Iranian actions, waging proxy war against Israel, Iranian statements that Israel should be wiped off the map and the constant calls by the Iranian leadership for the people to embrace martyrdom in the fight against Israel.

Civilian casualties would probably be light since the nuclear facilities are certainly off limits to all but the workers and security people, and since Israel demonstrated an ability to thwart a similar air defense system when it bombed Syria's nuclear plant, it is likely the raid would be over before much resistance could be mounted by Iran's airforce, no doubt saving the lives of many Iranian pilots in their outdated aircraft.

 

[editec]

I don't think anyone paying attention imagines that Iran isn't pursuing the bomb.

As to Iran committing national suicide to wipe out Isreal?

Get a grip.

To Iranians the existence of Iran is far far more important than the end of Isreal.

Honestly, you'd have to be an idiot to believe otherwise.