Sadly, The Final Polls Comes Out - and Paperboy's been slacking

Discussion in 'Congress' started by Red Dawn, Nov 2, 2008.

  1. Red Dawn
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    Red Dawn Senior Member

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    Sadly, the final polls are upon us. And for some unknown reason, Paperboy hasn't dutifully posted the final polls.

    * Final USAToday/Gallup Poll: Obama 53%, McCain 42%.

    * CBS also has another poll out tonight: Obama 54%, McCain 41%

    * a weighted average of six daily tracking polls -- has Obama at 51.5% and McCain at 44.2%, a 7.3-point lead for Obama. The lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.

    * Pew Poll Predicts Obama Will Win 52-46



    Talking Points Memo | Breaking News and Analysis


    It ain't over till its over. All eyes on Pennsylvania. Paperboy said McCain was winning Pennsylvania 53% to 33%, although strangely, I haven't found any credible verification of that poll papertoy was trumpeting.
     
  2. bk1983
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    bk1983 Off too Kuwait..

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    It is a poll where he looks at the numbers then switches places and puts McCain where Obama is sitting. It is the only way he can sleep at night, I really hope he will be ok on Nov.5th because he is really looking desperate to find anything showing mcCain will win. When even GOP insiders express real doubt of a sliver of hope. Not impossible but highley unlikely.
     
  3. sealybobo
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    sealybobo Diamond Member

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    The negative commercials and preachers telling their congregations might help mccain a little, but mccain has to sweep a bunch of states. He can't lose any of them.

    I predict obama loses ohio and wins the presidency anyways.

    I just have a bad feeling about ohio because I know ohio. Its like michigan only more conservative with less of a black population.
     
  4. jschuck12001
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    jschuck12001 Senior Member

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    Its the state polls we should be watching, the mason dixson state polls in Fl, NC, OH showed Mccain either barely down or barely winning. Its hard to know what the hell is going on with all these damn polls.
     
  5. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: House Effects in Action

    The new set of battleground state polling from Mason-Dixon provides a terrific working example of what we call "house effects" -- a poll's consistent tendency to lean toward one candidate or another. Throughout this election cycle, we have found that Mason-Dixon's polls lean 2-3 points more toward John McCain than the average of other polls taken in those states at the same time.

    Here are the Mason-Dixon polls released within the past 72 hours in eight key battleground states, along with a comparison to our current trendline-adjusted averages:

    [​IMG]

    In all of these states but Florida, Mason-Dixon came in below our average (although in some cases not by much). On balance, their polls were 2.5 points more favorable to McCain than the average -- exactly where our model had pegged Mason-Dixon polls going in.

    But! -- you might protest -- maybe these numbers are more favorable to McCain because your averages are out of date, and this election is trending toward McCain!

    Well, not really. Because if you compare these polls against the last time Mason-Dixon was in the field in these states, Obama hasn't really lost any ground. (Actually, he's gained a bit, but not any statistically significant amount).

    [​IMG]

    ...to make this clear for the nth time, the presence of a house effect does not mean that a pollster is partisan or "biased". Mason-Dixon is a non-partisan pollster. Nor does it mean that a pollster is wrong! Mason-Dixon has a pretty good track record. Their vision of the electorate -- which seems to point toward a narrow Obama electoral victory -- could very easily turn out to be the right one. But it does mean that you need to take these sorts of things into account to make sure that you're making apples-to-apples comparisons.
     
  6. Missourian
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    Missourian Gold Member

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    I think I'll go to bed early Tuesday night. It's going to be a nailbiter for both sides and I don't need the added stress. I've cast my vote...I'll be working the polling places all day Tuesday and I'll have done all I can do.
     
  7. bk1983
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    bk1983 Off too Kuwait..

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    no shit,lol.. the sooner this election is over the better..
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  8. The Paperboy
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    The Paperboy Times Square

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    Great Day!

    My football team comes back from sure defeat to win in overtime and then out with the wife to see "Phantom of the Opera" followed by wine and desert at the Cheesecake factory.

    Never said McCain was winning PA 53/33. Don't mix up my opinions with links posted to other sites. It's all just info to add to our fun debates.

    I'm quite optimistic McCain will pull this thing out but if he doesn't then life goes on.

    Life is good. Splurge on it!
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2008
  9. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    Thank you for voting. You're a great American. :clap2: :clap2:

    I think I have an idea of who you voted for, but it's irrelevant. You did your duty. Hopefully by the time Tuesday is over with, we could have 140 million people just like you... except that 55% of them will vote for someone else. :D
     
  10. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    Two words:

    Trent Dilfer

    Or:

    Hugh Culvrahouse
     

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