Obama's chances of winning!

Discussion in 'Congress' started by bk1983, Nov 2, 2008.

  1. bk1983
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    bk1983 Off too Kuwait..

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    Brian Adams, a mathematics and computer science professor at Franklin & Marshall College, reports that there's a 99.98% chance that Sen. Barack Obama will win the presidential election on Tuesday.
    Adams has developed a simulation model that involves running 50 million simulated state-by-state races, using the late-October poll results for each state. He ran his simulation 50 million times to allow him to calculate all the different combinations of electoral votes that might result, even long shots. While the number of possible outcomes is very large, the result is always the same. Obama receives 270 or more electoral votes 99.98% of the time. Using intervals of electoral vote results, there is a 95 percent chance that the outcome will have Obama winning between 303 and 381 electoral votes.

    Simulation Shows Obama Will Win -- Political Wire

    FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right believes Obama has a slightly lower chance around 94% chance of winning. Either way, not good news for you Obama haters.
     
  2. Modbert
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    Modbert Daydream Believer Supporting Member

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    That's if every vote counts. However, it won't.
     
  3. bk1983
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    bk1983 Off too Kuwait..

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    What are you insinuating?
     
  4. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    Electronic vote stealing, silly.
     
  5. bk1983
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    bk1983 Off too Kuwait..

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    Anything's possible, but electronic vote stealing to give McCain a win is even lower then the 6% chance fivethiryeight gives him. :D
     
  6. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    He will only win if every single one of us go out on Tuesday and do three things:

    VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!
     
  7. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    In 2004, the odds of the tallied results actually having occured (Bush winning 2004 legitimately, no electronic vote tampering) was something like 1 in 30,000.

    In other words, Diebold delivered the election.

    Start here for all the linked references:

    Evidence of Electoral Fraud in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election: A Reading List

    THere is no reason to think that there is not a fix this time as well. No reason at all. If the public swallows a 1 in 30,000 chance they'll swallow about anything. It'll be called "Bradley effect."
     
  8. dilloduck
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    dilloduck Diamond Member

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    And the Democratic leadership just sits on their hands and watch ? CMON.
     
  9. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    Well, on Maddow two nights ago a Florida Congresswoman said that revoking HAVA (or retooling it to make it work) was high on the agenda for the next congress.

    We'll see.

    Since they can't even get their act together on something trivial like cafe standards, I don't think being unable to fix vote machines is proof that there isn't fraud, or proof that the dems are in on it. it's just proof they haven't fixed it yet.

    If dem pres with a dem congress doesn't adress it, I'll view it differently.
     
  10. bk1983
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    bk1983 Off too Kuwait..

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    So was the polling results fixed? The last polls before the election showed Bush up an average of 2 points. He won by 2.5 points, reallly close to public opinion prior to the vote. Democrat party is full of lawyers, the voting locations this year will have an infantry of lawyers with a keen eye on whats going on. Kerry a fine senator was to slow to respond to the gop attack party. He was painted as flip flopping liberal and the public bought it. Simply put Bush campaign outperformed the Kerry campaign. Kerry lost fair and square/ 2004 and 2008 are not anything alike, the electoral map is completely different and favorable to democrats.
     

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