Retail Sales are UP one percent. Wow!

This is nothing telling. Clothing and tech products are dirt cheap in this deflationary environment, and no doubt play a role in retail sales being "up". Also post-xmas fire sales probably had a lot to do with it as well.

This is not necessarily indicative of the economy turning a corner.

When we see multiple months of this, with the percentage gradually increasing, then we'll talk.

SPOT ON

And as an expert in Retail....

January is CLEARANCE month....whatever you did not sell off at Christmas hits the racks dirt cheap....at a loss, in general....

Also, they are in the run of their lives to make year end figures...Fiscal year end for department stores is usually the end of January or the end of february...then storewide inventory immediately afterwards....the more sold off, the less on hand to inventory....thus the huge drops in prices to liquidate before such...

Quite right.

But LAST YEAR the people were buying the clearance at a rate that was (9% higher than this year.

THAT is significant, I think.

I see more and more empty stores on Main Street.

Not a good sign, folks.
 
I really hope that the sales figures are evidence that the economy is turning around, but I have my serious doubts. We are going to have to see more evidence before getting excited.

But its a start.
I think we all have our serious doubts. We have not been down this road before.

Fact remains that Roosevelt's stimulus actions were only marginally effective. They DID have some effect, so the only logical conclusion is that by massively increasing the Federal generosity, we can have a marked effect.

My belief on that is that the other industralized countries need to have their own stimulus plans, too, or our efforts will improve things here for as long as we keep spending, but the rest of the world will drag us back down if they are not trying to restore the high flying economy that the developed world was enjoying just a year ago.

Meanwhile, for Pauli, here is a link to the calendar of economic events that is updated daily and covers a week's time. Pauli, you do not need to call people names. You need to learn and read to do so. Then you will not feel so inadequate that you resort to name calling all of the time.

Economic Calendar: Financial Calendars - Yahoo! Finance
 
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Wow, Circuit City did a lot of Going out of Biz sales. LOL

Retail establishments come and go with regularity. Many hold the promise of funded retirements after 20 years of employee service. Those that did so seldom lasted beyond 19 and a half years before declaring bankruptcy. Voila! No need to pay for those pensions.

Let's hope the employees were saving for a rainyday.
 
The good news is that a nascent recovery may be taking effect in China.

Bloomberg.com: China

Loans in China are rising and the money supply is expanding quickly.

Stimulus packages see new loans rise at record rate -- Shanghai Daily | 上海日报 -- English Window to China New

This could be signs that the economy may be getting a bit better.

Also, metal prices may be stabilizing, also another good sign.

But there aren't many others.

people like cramer think that china will lead everyone out of this recession.
 
people like cramer think that china will lead everyone out of this recession.

Yeah, I don't know about that.

However, what often happens at the end of a recession is that commodity prices begin to rise. Chinese demand may be signaling the end of commodity price declines, which would be good for the economy.
 
This is nothing telling. Clothing and tech products are dirt cheap in this deflationary environment, and no doubt play a role in retail sales being "up". Also post-xmas fire sales probably had a lot to do with it as well.

This is not necessarily indicative of the economy turning a corner.

When we see multiple months of this, with the percentage gradually increasing, then we'll talk.

SPOT ON

And as an expert in Retail....

January is CLEARANCE month....whatever you did not sell off at Christmas hits the racks dirt cheap....at a loss, in general....

Also, they are in the run of their lives to make year end figures...Fiscal year end for department stores is usually the end of January or the end of february...then storewide inventory immediately afterwards....the more sold off, the less on hand to inventory....thus the huge drops in prices to liquidate before such...

Thank goodness for those clearance sales too! I had fun at JcPenny this week buying lots of clothes for work. 75% off and ..I was loving it. 7 Pairs of pants, three shirts and a pair of shoes. Only spent $ 90.00. Sure do miss Mervyn's though,they had the best jeans.
 
This is nothing telling. Clothing and tech products are dirt cheap in this deflationary environment, .....

Paulie, again, you do not know what you are talking about. Read, man, READ!

We are not in a deflationary environment. At least not yet. We are still experiencing inflation in this country . Personally, I think clothing and food and tech products are too expensive and I would welcome a few months of deflation.

You can't be serious! :lol: We most certainly ARE in a deflationary environment. Housing is dirt cheap, clothing is being sold for upwards of 90% off, cars are practically being GIVEN away. Energy is cheap, stocks are cheap. I didn't mention food though, that's one of the few sectors that's still expensive.

You call me stupid and then post THAT? Please man, you just made yourself look like an idiot.

You're the guy who screams about depressions one day, and then talks about economic turnarounds the next day, because retail sales are up a whopping fucking 1%, in the month following x-mas when there's always the best sales promotions.

We are in DEFLATION, neub. Maybe you should stick with threads where you can recite biblical verses about how middle eastern countries have a destiny of nuclear destruction.
 
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The gun and ammo industry is in excellent shape.

Most gun companies aren't publicly traded, but Smith and Wesson and Sturm-Ruger are, and their stock prices are off their 52 week highs, especially S&W.

What's interesting about Ruger though, is this:

rgr


Look at the spike after the election :lol:
 
Here is an interesting article:

Why This Recession Seems Worse Than '70s and '80s
Friday February 13, 2009, 11:37 am EST


If you think this recession is the worst since World War II, chances are you weren't born or working during the downturns of the 1970s and '80s, you're listening to President Obama too much or you're a white-collar worker in financial services.

If all three are true, you may even think we're on the verge of another Great Depression.

At this point, the only thing that may be true is your age and employment status.



"The current situation has nothing in common with the Great Depression," says economist Steve Hanke of the Cato Institute and Johns Hopkins University. "The sooner they [in Washington] stop spinning the bad news story and say nothing, the sooner we'll be more confident."

Hanke is not alone in dismissing what appears to be a potent cocktail of misinformation and doom and gloom, wherein the current recession-now in its 13th month-is already considered worse than the 16-month ones of 1973-1975 and 1980-1982.

"We were pretty scared in '82; things looked horrible for awhile," says Bob Stovall of Wood Asset management and a 55-year veteran of the securities business. "I don't think you can say it's worse than then; its different. You have changed the landscape but you did that in the Midwest when you forced a lot of rust-belt companies to the wall."

"This time it's financial firms going out of business, instead of manufacturing ones, and the jobs are going with them," explains Stovall.



"I do think that's part of it," says Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics, saying that. "They're the ones making the pronouncements. People in the financial sector are getting crushed."

They're not the only ones selling doom and gloom, though.

"I don't remember a president talking down the economy as much as President Obama," says economist Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "The economy is very psychological. There's a herd instinct."
 
Forget the recession. Sales going up are the first indication that we are starting to recover. Now, do we need the Stimulus Bill????

Railcar loadings are still pretty flat. Nice upward tick last week, but we'll see if it holds...
 
Forget the recession. Sales going up are the first indication that we are starting to recover. Now, do we need the Stimulus Bill????

Railcar loadings are still pretty flat. Nice upward tick last week, but we'll see if it holds...

I'll take flat.

They've been flat for several weeks now, since Xmas, anyway.

What interesting is coal is down a bit as power plant inventories are full, but that is being offset by increases in steel and aluminum, mostly to West Coast ports.

Might have something to do with that uptick in Chinese activity you mentioned earlier....
 
Here is an interesting article:

Why This Recession Seems Worse Than '70s and '80s
Friday February 13, 2009, 11:37 am EST


If you think this recession is the worst since World War II, chances are you weren't born or working during the downturns of the 1970s and '80s, you're listening to President Obama too much or you're a white-collar worker in financial services.

If all three are true, you may even think we're on the verge of another Great Depression.

At this point, the only thing that may be true is your age and employment status.



"The current situation has nothing in common with the Great Depression," says economist Steve Hanke of the Cato Institute and Johns Hopkins University. "The sooner they [in Washington] stop spinning the bad news story and say nothing, the sooner we'll be more confident."

Hanke is not alone in dismissing what appears to be a potent cocktail of misinformation and doom and gloom, wherein the current recession-now in its 13th month-is already considered worse than the 16-month ones of 1973-1975 and 1980-1982.

"We were pretty scared in '82; things looked horrible for awhile," says Bob Stovall of Wood Asset management and a 55-year veteran of the securities business. "I don't think you can say it's worse than then; its different. You have changed the landscape but you did that in the Midwest when you forced a lot of rust-belt companies to the wall."

"This time it's financial firms going out of business, instead of manufacturing ones, and the jobs are going with them," explains Stovall.



"I do think that's part of it," says Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics, saying that. "They're the ones making the pronouncements. People in the financial sector are getting crushed."

They're not the only ones selling doom and gloom, though.

"I don't remember a president talking down the economy as much as President Obama," says economist Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "The economy is very psychological. There's a herd instinct."

i read that article and they are right the president is selling doom and gloom to get it passed. i hope his rhetoric changes.
 

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