Refining severe weather tracks....

[flacaltenn]

The ability to predict variations of intensity of severe storms is getting scary good.. Like in understanding the local effects of "terrain roughness, gravity waves, and general topology" on tornado tracks.

Study: Atmosphere not only factor in deadly April 2011 tornado outbreak | Times Free Press

An ongoing study at the <<Univ of Alabama Huntsville>> university’s Severe Weather Institute and Radar and Lightning Laboratory has identified three external factors — gravity waves, topography and surface roughness — that appear to influence the formation and strength of tornadoes, study author and researcher Dr. Kevin Knupp said.

The study team believes tornadoes can be stretched and intensified or squeezed and slowed by slopes that fall or rise beneath them.

The University of Alabama study builds on a 2005 analysis that indicates storms are affected by the first of the three external controls, “gravity waves” — a wave of energy “pushed by the stability of the atmosphere” — that generate atmospheric ripples similar to those radiating from a pebble tossed into a quiet pond, Knupp said.

When gravity waves intersect a storm that is potentially tornadic, “it sort of pulls the trigger,” Knupp said. Gravity waves “provide a source of rotation that the storm can then tap,” he said.

On April 27, 2011, researchers in Huntsville were watching radar images of the storms raging toward Alabama with gravity waves, the first external control, in mind.

So far, their research has revealed two more factors believed to figure in tornado intensity.

“The second external control is topography,” Knupp said, referring to terrain features such as mountains and valleys.

Knupp first noticed the effect of topography in 1989 when an EF4 tornado formed near Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, and the same effect appeared later in other nearby storms.

One project researcher “plotted the rotation as a function of height versus time, and has shown a really good correlation between the formation of a tornado west of a ridge over Huntsville, weakening as it went over the ridge, and reformation as it descended into the valley on the downwind side of the ridge,” Knupp said.

 

[skookerasbil]

interesting stuff.......


But you notice........not to the k00ks. Its all hysteria all the time.

 

[Old Rocks]

Given that we will see more severe weather than in the past, that is good news.

 

[flacaltenn]

Given that we will see more severe weather than in the past, that is good news.

You will warn us all when all that disaster is about to happen. We are dpending on you ChickenLitt........ I mean GoldiRocks......

 

[Moonglow]

They have developed a cheaper doppler radar to use in more areas...

 

[Old Rocks]

They are using computer models developed from the actions of tornados that they have tracked in the past. Ol' Flat will scream bloody murder about the scientists using computer models trying to predict the effects of a warming world, but he is fine with an application that tracks storms.

You see, one has no political repercusions, the other does. And if science gets in the way of politics, in Flat's world, politics has priority.

 

[flacaltenn]

They are using computer models developed from the actions of tornados that they have tracked in the past. Ol' Flat will scream bloody murder about the scientists using computer models trying to predict the effects of a warming world, but he is fine with an application that tracks storms.

You see, one has no political repercusions, the other does. And if science gets in the way of politics, in Flat's world, politics has priority.

You can literally smell the desperation.. Models used to predict patterns of individual storms using multi-faceted real data and VERIFIABLE RESULTS -- well that's science. Predicting the Global climate 50 or 100 years on from trivial parameters with HUGE uncertainties and biases is not.. In the former case, the science will resolve from empirical observations in years, in the latter maybe never if "climate science" doesn't grow up quickly..