Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
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- #1
Fox news put out a poll measuring many things, including 2016 presidential matchups, which I will be logging with all the other polls that came in after Tuesday of this week - with next weeks polling-dump thread.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/04/23/fox-news-poll-042315/
In the FOX poll, there are 7 presidential matchups and Hillary is winning all of them. That is not a big surprise, since she has won 281 of the 288 matchups to-date.
But there were also these two important gold-nuggets within the poll. Kind of makes me feel sorry for Jeb Bush:
On the question of leader of the past vs. leader of the future it's Bush 48 leader of the past, 31 leader of the future, making for a -17 margin for "leader of the future". But for Clinton it's 41 leader of the past, 43 leader of the future, making for a +2 margin for "leader of the future". That's a margin difference of 19 points between the two, not to Bush's advantage.
On the question as to whether being related to previous presidents is an advantage or disadvantage, the numbers Bush v. Clinton are close to mirror images of each other. 58% say that it's a DISADVANTAGE for Jeb Bush, while 52% say it's an ADVANTAGE for Hillary Clinton. Advantage margin Bush = -24. Advantage margin Clinton = +13, a 27 point difference.
So, both of them come from families that have had at least one president in the White House in the last soon-to-be 28 years, but Bush is being viewed very differently than Clinton.
Now, this is just one poll (my usual caveat), but I find this information to be especially interesting since it is coming from the FOX poll, which is a very Democrat-unfriendly polling outfit and was notoriously bad in it's polling in 2012, every bit as bad as Rasmussen was, "bad" meaning a verifiable mathematical bias to the RIGHT, not to the LEFT, based on comparing it's 2012 end-polling to the actual results.
So, this means that the Clinton margins in the matchups are probably considerably larger than FOX is reporting.
And as I alluded to in the title, it's kind of unfair to Jeb Bush, but this data is very, very interesting. I think it's also an ominous sign for him and the GOP going into 2016. If 52% of respondents in a FOX survey think that Hillary Clinton's family situation is to her advantage, then you can be guaranteed that in the real, non-Fox world, that statistic is actually far higher.
Discuss. What do you make of those two data points that I highlighted?