NYcarbineer
Diamond Member
Ah, so the guy who puts 'educator (of liberals)' under his username wants to shoot the messenger Nate Silver
on an unsubstantiated charge of partisan bias?
Did you REALLY think you could slip that one through? Don't insult me.
If all Nate did was "deliver the message" I wouldn't shoot him. Unfortunately, that's not what he does. Consider:
In his rankings on June 6, 2010 Silver lists his rankings based on "PIE" (pollster introduced error) instead of "rawscore" which is historically how accurate they have been. He argues that regardless of past results the best way to predict their future dependability is through PIE. Problem....he never really explains how he distinguished between avoidable errors and unavoidable errors and he regresses the statistics toward different means. So if a firm is part of those organizations, they will be regressed toward one mean. if they are not, they will be regressed toward a completely different mean.
Now that is a decision not based upon results, historical accuracy, or anything related to the integrity of the data. It's based completely on Silver's personal determination of what is avoidable vs. unavoidable and when he cannot see their methodology (like with Rasmussen) he assumes the error is avoidable and regresses them toward a dramatically more unfavorable mean.
That my friend is not statistical analysis. That's politics and that's bias.
I encourage you to read Mark Blumenthal's excellent article regarding Nate's ratings for a more detailed explanation.
Rasmussen makes you pay for crosstabs. You say crosstabs are very important. You're essentially an advertisement to sell Rasmussen subscriptions.