Poll: Dean tops Kerry in Bay State

[MtnBiker]

Poll: Dean tops Kerry in Bay State

HERALD POLL/by David R. Guarino
Monday, November 24, 2003

Sen. John F. Kerry is facing a backyard beating at the hands of presidential primary nemesis Howard Dean, losing his own state by a staggering 9 points in a new Boston Herald poll.


Dean, who already stole the primary leads from a faltering Kerry in New Hampshire and Iowa, would pummel the hometown senator 33 percent to 24 percent if voting were held today.

Worse for Kerry, Dean leads here by riding the longtime senator's supposed core base - liberals, Democrats and older voters.

The fact that he can come into Massachusetts, John Kerry's home state, where Democrats are so familiar with the senator, and still have a 9-point lead really speaks to the strength of the Dean campaign and his core messages, said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

The Herald poll of 424 probable Democratic primary voters, taken by RKM Research and Communications Wednesday through Friday, is the first to show Kerry outright losing his home state. It has a plus or minus 4.8 percent margin of error.

In head-to-head matchups, Kerry and Dean show it is a two-man race in the Bay State, though 21 percent said they're undecided.

Retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark drew 7 percent, followed by Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman at 4 percent, and U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt at 3 percent. The other candidates polled at 2 percent or lower.

Contrary to popular opinion that Dean does best among Generation Xers and younger, the poll shows Dean attracting overwhelming support among more solid, older voters. Dean wins by 18 points among those 55 to 64 and by 14 points among those over 65.

The two were virtually tied, Dean at 28 percent and Kerry at 27 percent, among voters under 34, the poll found.

Those older voters and more liberal voters who are most familiar with Kerry and, on the Democratic side, have supported him consistently in the past, have now moved to Dean, Myers said.

Dean's lead is steady among both genders and among registered Democrats and independents.

But the former Vermont governor draws his staunchest support from self-professed liberals, who chose him by a 42 percent to 20 percent margin over
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/local_regional/kerr11242003.htm

Is Dean going to receive the nomination?

 

[dijetlo]

Hey MB, allways enjoy your posts. Wont disagree a bit except to highlight something I think the article glossed over.

. would pummel the hometown senator 33 percent to 24 percent if voting were held today...It has a plus or minus 4.8 percent margin of error.

Which means it's a statistical dead heat. It is possible for Kerry to be ahead 29% to 28%. You also have 27% undecided. The ball is still in play...

 

[MtnBiker]

Good point Dijetlo, I agree New Hampshire is still very much in play and still much time before voting takes place. Just interested in other peoples feedback. Thanks for yours.

 

[green lantern]

with the economy improving, and if we get the united nations to help out with iraq, i dont see neither dean nor kerry being able to beat bush. an improving economy will give bush a big edge next year, and the democrats will be hard pressed to overcome this. democrats also need to come up with a solid message, something more than bush is not good for the country. by the time the democratic primarys are over, the winner will be to beat up in my opinion to pose a big threat to bush.

 

[dijetlo]

Originally posted by green lantern
with the economy improving, and if we get the united nations to help out with iraq, i dont see neither dean nor kerry being able to beat bush. an improving economy will give bush a big edge next year, and the democrats will be hard pressed to overcome this. democrats also need to come up with a solid message, something more than bush is not good for the country. by the time the democratic primarys are over, the winner will be to beat up in my opinion to pose a big threat to bush.

The UN is not going to commit troops, and GWB is not about to ask them to (again). They want to help with the reconstruction but Iraq is too hot for a UN presence, Kofi Annan has made that pretty clear.
As for the Democrats, they're "vetting" each other with this campaign. Clinton had his skeletons hauled out of the closet by his democratic adversaries in the primaries, he still survived to thump 41. Hart suffered the same fate and retired to political commentator status.
Todays economic numbers are a bit...stunning. GDP rose to 8.2 for Q3. That is a readjustment from the Commerce Department puts the 3rd Q as the best in 19 1/2 years. Even the whitehouse is urging caution, predicting this growth rate can'tbe maintained.
The stock market is taking at his word,
Unemployment has not been similarly adjusted so it leaves one to wonder how much the phrase "jobless recovery" might ring with an electorate allready suspisious of the administrations record on class warfare.

CBS News Poll. Nov. 10-12, 2003. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
"In general, do you think the policies of the Bush Administration favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or do they treat all groups the same?"
11/03
Rich 63%
Middle Class 9%
Poor 1%
All the Same 23%
Don't Know 4%

 

[5stringJeff]

Originally posted by dijetlo
As for the Democrats, they're "vetting" each other with this campaign. Clinton had his skeletons hauled out of the closet by his democratic adversaries in the primaries, he still survived to thump 41. Hart suffered the same fate and retired to political commentator status.

Quite a stretch to compare the nine Dwarves to Clinton. Most of them are advocating McGovern's stance on war and Mondale's stance on taxes - two losing formulas. Clinton ran to the center while bashing Bush's economic policies.

... it leaves one to wonder how much the phrase "jobless recovery" might ring with an electorate allready suspisious of the administrations record on class warfare.

Funny how you never see Republicans bring up class warfare, or economic classes, for that matter. Conservatives tend to advocate policies that are beneficial to all economic classes, except for maybe the government leech class.

 

[MtnBiker]

8.2 percent growth is impressive, I do not believe the economy will continue to grow at such a rate in the coming quaters or year, but grow at a more moderate rate. It does strike me as odd that there is a preception that job growth will not occur at some level with the growth in the economy.

 

[MtnBiker]

Originally posted by dijetlo
Which means it's a statistical dead heat. It is possible for Kerry to be ahead 29% to 28%. You also have 27% undecided. The ball is still in play...

You know I have been thinking about this, 33% for Dean, 24% for Kerry may still be within the margin of error, however it still does not look good for Kerry to have numbers like this in his home state.

 

[dijetlo]

Originally posted by MtnBiker
You know I have been thinking about this, 33% for Dean, 24% for Kerry may still be within the margin of error, however it still does not look good for Kerry to have numbers like this in his home state.

Definitely not, but the early primaries (especially N.H.) are quirky. I think those hard headed new englanders enjoy people wondering what they think. Kerry is a good man as far as I can see, and he would have a strong chance against Bush but he is too mainstream for the primary crowd.