Palesteeenians Continue Backward Slide To Failure

[JStone]

Houriya Ahmed: "Moving Backward in Palestine" Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Moving backward in Palestine

After a year in which Arabs have fought and died for democracy, the Palestinian Territories seem to be the one place in the region where autocracy is on the ascendancy.

Despite their historical rivalry, Fatah and Hamas announced their intention to pursue reconciliation in May 2011. They were motivated not by a breakthrough in relations as much as mutual need, with their traditional power bases weakened by the effects of the Arab Spring. The fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak weakened Fatah, and Hamas was forced to look elsewhere as the ongoing Syrian uprising has threatened to topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In response to Hamas’ reticence in defense of its patron Assad, Iran is reported to have halted its financial support.

The shortfall in Hamas’ funding has reportedly been supplemented by Turkey (and rumors have it Qatar), but this has likely come with strings attached: moderating their stance toward Israel and committing to Palestinian unity. This has been reflected in Hamas’ recent behavior with Politburo Chief Khaled Meshaal asking the party’s militant wing to halt attacks against Israel. As a result, Iran is now throwing its weight behind Hamas’ militant rival in Gaza, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad—its members are converting to Shiism, and the group is increasingly threatening Hamas’ power in its home base.

While entering into a unity deal could pave the way for Hamas to assert itself diplomatically, it could put it in a weaker position; it could lose its revolutionary credentials that traditionally set it apart from Fatah. If it does not gain enough diplomatic clout from this deal to make such a sacrifice worthwhile, it may in fact enable other militant groups—or simply Fatah—to outflank it.

The shifting dynamics of the regime make the outcome of this unity deal far from certain, and it may well prove to be a Potemkin arrangement to buy both groups time to recalibrate their individual positions. Yet in the interim, we could be witnessing a dangerous descent back into Arafat-era political stagnation.