PA-12: Bring on November 2010!!!!!!!

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Sinatra, May 19, 2010.

  1. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    Despite the media spin, the results, though not entirely favorable, give further evidence of the signficant shift toward conservatism in America as we head toward November 2010...

    ___

    Yet that doesn't change the bottom line, which is this. The political demographics, the effect of the Senate primary, and the anti-Obama/Pelosi tone of the Democratic candidate were all uniquely favorable to the Democrats last night. Control of the House of Representatives is going to turn on districts that are much less Democratic than PA-12, on a day when the net effect of television advertising is not so heavily tilted toward the Democratic Party, and on the fate of incumbent Democrats who cannot so easily hide from their national leaders.

    And let's not forget the view from 30,000 feet. Last night we saw two Democratic incumbent senators - Blanche Lincoln and Arlen Specter - mired in the mid-40s in their primaries. In PA-12, we find a candidate who positioned himself as an old time Democrat winning 53% of the vote in a union district where 62% of the voters were registered Democrats. How does this "contradict" "all the evidence" of a very good Republican year?

    _____

    RealClearPolitics - HorseRaceBlog - Is PA-12 a Bellwether?
     
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  2. Dante
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    Dante On leave Supporting Member

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    The GOP's special failure - Jonathan Martin and Charles Mahtesian - POLITICO.com
     
  3. VaYank5150
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    VaYank5150 Gold Member

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    They do? Please explain HOW the results do that...
     
  4. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    NEXT!!!! :eusa_angel:

    Martin and Mahtesian make some valid points, but they are massively overstating their case. The details of last night's special election don't support the bellwether argument as these two have constructed it.

    Let's begin with the political demography of the district. In 2004, George W. Bush won 255 congressional districts. PA-12 was not one of them. From 1994 to 2006, the Republicans held the United States House of Representatives, controlling as many as 232 seats. PA-12 was never one of them. In fact, the Republican-dominated Pennsylvania legislature created a heavily Democratic 12th district in 2002 by moving conservative voters around to generate the Republican-leaning 18th district (currently held by Republican Tim Murphy).


    ...This is a hugely important point to bear in mind. My back-of-the-envelope calculation of the party turnout in last night's election indicates that a whopping 62% of the voters were Democratic, just 34% Republican, and a measly 4% were Independent or had a third party affiliation. If you give Republican Burns 90% of the Republican vote and 60% of the Independent vote, that means Burns won about one in five Democrats. That's a very decent haul, but it is just not enough in a district where there are so many Democrats coming out to vote.


    RealClearPolitics - HorseRaceBlog - Is PA-12 a Bellwether?
     
  5. The Infidel
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    The Infidel EVIL CONSERVATIVE

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    Im sure the GOP will figure out how to screw it up.

    I just hope I am wrong.

     
  6. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    No worries - the Republican Machine is FINALLY getting it, and November 2010 is going to prove a blowout against the Dems. Last night's primary elections clearly reinforced that soon-to-be fact.
     
  7. Dante
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    Dante On leave Supporting Member

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    one man's opinion against the opinion of two other men.

    :eusa_whistle:
     
  8. Dante
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    Dante On leave Supporting Member

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    where were you in 2006?
     
  9. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    Voting against Republicans...
     
  10. Dante
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    Dante On leave Supporting Member

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    In 2006 people made predictions right up until shortly before the election. Expert opinions---supposedly. Here you are making predictions very far out.

    :eusa_whistle:
     

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