Owens vs Hoffman - NY23 (Live Results)

[del]

the margin is now 3.3 at 77.4% reporting

i guess the busses filled with teabaggers have arrived.

I've got 3.4 with 78.1

then you have a faster source. i use the politico site. what do you use?

btw, i did not find a clear answer on the runoff thing, i guess it is a simple winner takes it all election.

3.7 at 83.8 now

there would be at least one recount before they would consider a head to head run off, i think.

 

[Modbert]

Corzine simply ran a terrible campaign, wasn't a sympathetic candidate, and really I think this was less of a referendum on Obama as it was about jobs and the economy in NJ.

Pretty much. The majority of NJ voters say that what was influenced their vote. So basically if the job market is better in 2010, Democrats win. If it's not, Democrats lose. Simple as that.

 

[Midnight Marauder]

I've got 3.4 with 78.1

then you have a faster source. i use the politico site. what do you use?

btw, i did not find a clear answer on the runoff thing, i guess it is a simple winner takes it all election.

3.7 at 83.8 now

there would be at least one recount before they would consider a head to head run off, i think.

I'd assume that too. I really have no clue what their laws are.

 

[Zander]

True, NJ has a history of electing moderate Republican governors for a few terms, followed by a Democrat, then another moderate Republican,etc etc,,. But Obama carried NJ by over 15 points only ONE YEAR ago. If Obama had any "magic" left his coattails would have allowed Corzine ( a lousy governor) to squeak out a win. For something so "unimportant" Obama visited the state 6 times and even sent in his election team to help Corzine out, and they still got creamed! The honeymoon is over.

In the end, it is not earth shattering, but it is a major defeat for team Obama.

Except over 60% of people said Obama had no effect on their vote. Only about 20% said their vote was against Obama. And 18% said Obama influenced them to vote for Corzine. 18% is about where Christie had lost between now and a couple months ago. Corzine was hated long before Obama came on the scene. This wasn't against Obama, it was strictly state politics and the voters saw it as such.

Despite what you may think, Obama is still a well-liked guy.

For now he is well liked. If the economy stays in the shitter, his popularity will fall accordingly.

Like I said, it's not the end of the world, but it is a major defeat for team Obama. It is likely to get worse next year. What is most surprising to me is how quickly the pendulum is swinging this cycle.....

 

[Midnight Marauder]

Corzine simply ran a terrible campaign, wasn't a sympathetic candidate, and really I think this was less of a referendum on Obama as it was about jobs and the economy in NJ.

Pretty much. The majority of NJ voters say that what was influenced their vote. So basically if the job market is better in 2010, Democrats win. If it's not, Democrats lose. Simple as that.

On a national election, it'll come down to alot more than that, but it will be a big factor.

Congress is going to have to do something about its abysmal approval numbers.

 

[Midnight Marauder]

the margin is now 3.3 at 77.4% reporting

i guess the busses filled with teabaggers have arrived.

I've got 3.4 with 78.1

then you have a faster source. i use the politico site. what do you use?

I'm on politico as well.

49.0 to 45.4 now, 85.3 in.

 

[Modbert]

On a national election, it'll come down to alot more than that, but it will be a big factor.

Congress is going to have to do something about its abysmal approval numbers.

Well obviously it will come down to more than that. But the economy will be the top issue.

As for Congress, they have improved though.

 

[del]

Corzine simply ran a terrible campaign, wasn't a sympathetic candidate, and really I think this was less of a referendum on Obama as it was about jobs and the economy in NJ.

Pretty much. The majority of NJ voters say that what was influenced their vote. So basically if the job market is better in 2010, Democrats win. If it's not, Democrats lose. Simple as that.

On a national election, it'll come down to alot more than that, but it will be a big factor.

Congress is going to have to do something about its abysmal approval numbers.

they could immediately boost their rating by proposing a change to the first amendment to the constitution that eliminates all verbiage beyond the first five words in that amendment.

just sayin...

 

[Midnight Marauder]

Pretty much. The majority of NJ voters say that what was influenced their vote. So basically if the job market is better in 2010, Democrats win. If it's not, Democrats lose. Simple as that.

On a national election, it'll come down to alot more than that, but it will be a big factor.

Congress is going to have to do something about its abysmal approval numbers.

they could immediately boost their rating by proposing a change to the first amendment to the constitution that eliminates all verbiage beyond the first five words in that amendment.

just sayin...

 

[Midnight Marauder]

49.1 to 45.4, 86.1 in.

Margin is holding.

 

[del]

49.1 to 45.4, 86.1 in.

Margin is holding.

i'd expect the margin to shrink as the outlying districts usually are more conservative and later in reporting, but i also think 3+ is too big a margin to overcome at this point.

just my deuce

 

[Modbert]

49.1 to 45.4, 86.1 in.

Margin is holding.

It's definitely holding as it hasn't changed for over 50% now.

 

[Midnight Marauder]

49.1 to 45.4, 86.1 in.

Margin is holding.

i'd expect the margin to shrink as the outlying districts usually are more conservative and later in reporting, but i also think 3+ is too big a margin to overcome at this point.

just my deuce

The problem becomes, population density in outlying precincts might not be enough votes to close the gap enough. Of course, I have no clue if there's any big precincts left.

 

[LibocalypseNow]

Fox News calls it for Owens. WTG Newt! What a blunder.

 

[del]

49.1 to 45.4, 86.1 in.

Margin is holding.

i'd expect the margin to shrink as the outlying districts usually are more conservative and later in reporting, but i also think 3+ is too big a margin to overcome at this point.

just my deuce

The problem becomes, population density in outlying precincts might not be enough votes to close the gap enough. Of course, I have no clue if there's any big precincts left.

i was assuming that the remaining precincts to be counted were all in non-urban/outlying areas.

 

[Ravi]

 

[L.K.Eder]

Fox News calls it for Owens. WTG Newt! What a blunder.

wow, obama's fundraising for owens showed obama is still the king! obama will be reelected in 2012 and 2016!

 

[Midnight Marauder]

i'd expect the margin to shrink as the outlying districts usually are more conservative and later in reporting, but i also think 3+ is too big a margin to overcome at this point.

just my deuce

The problem becomes, population density in outlying precincts might not be enough votes to close the gap enough. Of course, I have no clue if there's any big precincts left.

i was assuming that the remaining precincts to be counted were all in non-urban/outlying areas.

Me too, (Although larger precincts take longer to count) and I expect Politico to be calling this one for Owens in the next few minutes. Margin is holding with only 13.3% not reported.

 

[Sinatra]

Fox News calls it for Owens. WTG Newt! What a blunder.

Not Newt's fault.

The 5+ % to Scozzafava is the real spoiler - which was a danger given the dynamics of the race.

Hoffman was a distant third just a few weeks back. A remarkable surge in the final week, but it appears he ran out of time, and suffered from a bit of Scozzafava loyalty.

Still a remarkable development in an otherwise little-watched political race, and when taken with the two more significant wins in New Jersey and Virginia, a good night for American conservatives.

The Hoffman race will tighten though in the next 15 - 20 minutes - though not quite enough...

 

[Ravi]

Fox News calls it for Owens. WTG Newt! What a blunder.

Not Newt's fault.

The 5+ % to Scozzafava is the real spoiler - which was a danger given the dynamics of the race.

Hoffman was a distant third just a few weeks back. A remarkable surge in the final week, but it appears he ran out of time, and suffered from a bit of Scozzafava loyalty.

Still a remarkable development in an otherwise little-watched political race, and when taken with the two more significant wins in New Jersey and Virginia, a good night for American conservatives.

The Hoffman race will tighten though in the next 15 - 20 minutes - though not quite enough...