North Korea Cancels Armistice

[Circe]

North Korea just cancelled the Armistice (again: they've done it before), the truce that ended the Korean War.

An Armistice "ended" WWI also, but many historians, since Winston Churchill, think that war never ended and simply segued into a Thirty Years War including WWII, because Germany was never actually defeated in 1918.

Armistices don't work: only total, overwhelming, crushing defeat works to truly end a war.

In theory, NK is now in a state of war with us again, though as they do this often, it's mostly just a way to rile us up, probably. However, they often make a murderous gesture, such as when they shelled and killed part of the SK cabinet on a visit to Myanmar, or downed a Korean passenger plane, or shelled that island lately or recently sunk an SK navy ship, killing 40 sailors.

Do people think this current rise in tensions along with the nuking up NK is doing is important, or not? Is it likely to lead to war with South Korea -- and our 30,000 troops there? Will China fight on the side of NK again as they did before if war breaks out?

 

[PaulS1950]

Right now what happens in North Korea depends on the actions of a very young man and the military that controls him. It would be a simple matter to detonate a nuclear warhead in space above the USA and knock out a wide area of all electronic and electrical devices. Everything from automobiles to computers and electronics of all descriptions would be destroyed. Any generator or electric motor that was in use would also be destroyed.
That means that electrical grids would be completely devistated. We don't have enough generators and transformers stock-piled to put it back together so we would, for the most part be without electricity over a wide section of the contry. There would be no radio, television or even satellite communication at all. The military depends on communication to operate - so the military would be ineffectual. The people depend on electricity to keep food fress and to transport it so there would be no food after a week or so. There would be no help for most of the nation because there would be little ground transportation and no electricity to pump fuel. The banks would be down - no credit cards or money transfers because they are all done electronically.
We would jump back to a period of horses and buggies in less than a week. Would the rest of the world help? Most of the rest of the world would probably take advantage of the situation but some might help for as long as they were able.

 

[waltky]

Granny says dat lil' Kim is cruisin' fer a bruisin'...

North Korea annuls pacts with South, cuts hotline
March 8, 2013 — North Korea said Friday that it was scrapping a non-aggression pact and all other agreements aimed at easing tensions with South Korea and severing their emergency hotline.

The announcement in state media was released a day after the UN Security Council imposed more sanctions on the communist country over its third nuclear test and North Korea threatened the United States with a pre-emptive nuclear strike. Pyongyang "abrogates all agreements on non-aggressions reached between the North and the South," state media quoted the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea as saying.

The communications channel set up in the border village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone would be cut immediately, a committee statement said. "This channel can no longer perform its mission due to the prevailing grave situation," it said. The tone from North Korea has become increasingly belligerent since the international condemnation of its February 12 nuclear test. On Wednesday, it threatened to revoke the armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War. In 2009, North Korea also declared that all reconciliation agreements between it and its capitalist neighbor were void.

The two countries signed a non-aggression pact in 1991 that called for the peaceful settlement of their disagreements and the prevention of military clashes. North Korea's rhetoric has risen with the more recent tensions. On Friday, it called joint US-South Korean military exercises now being conducted "open acts of aggression" and "a vivid expression of wanton violation of all the agreements on non-aggression reached between the North and the South." "The frozen North-South relations have gone so far beyond the danger line that they are no longer repairable and an extremely dangerous situation is prevailing on the Korean Peninsula, where a nuclear war may break out right now," the committee statement read.

North Korea annuls pacts with South, cuts hotline - Pacific - Stripes

See also:

North Korea stops answering hotline with South
March 11, 2013 — As threatened, North Korea stopped answering a two-way hotline in the Demilitarized Zone on Monday, symbolically marking its decision to no longer recognize the armistice that ended the Korean War almost 60 years ago.

However, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification said the North still is using a separate military communication line to process the 1,000 South Koreans who commute regularly across the DMZ to the Kaesong Industrial Complex, where they work with 40,000 North Koreans despite a recent flurry of threats from both countries to wipe each other off the map. Technically, officials say, one country cannot unilaterally void the armistice that has, with mixed results, governed the fragile peace on the peninsula since it was signed July 27, 1953. U.S. Forces Korea downplayed the DMZ hotline going dead.

In response to the North’s threats to that effect last week, USFK spokeswoman Jennifer Buschick said, “Reports of [North Korea] cutting off communications are not unusual, and are frequently experienced during exercise periods. “When we place a call on the direct phone line and [North Korea] does not answer, we have no way of knowing if [the North] has actually disconnected the phone line or are just not answering the phone,” she said.

The latest round of threats from North Korea was prompted by the U.N. Security Council’s decision to slap additional sanctions on the rogue country for its third nuclear test on Feb. 12, and the U.S. and South Korean militaries’ largest annual joint exercises, involving thousands of troops. Monday was the start of Key Resolve, the second of the two overlapping exercises. Despite allied assurances the exercises were defensive in nature, North Korean officials have labeled Foal Eagle and Key Resolve as provocative practices for an attack on the cloistered country, and violations of the armistice.

By no longer recognizing the pact, a pro-North website said, “This means that [North Korea] is no longer bound by the armistice or the [North-South] pacts and is free to strike back at the U.S. imperialists and South Korean puppets at any time.” Despite the bluster, the North has on a number of occasions in recent years dismissed the armistice as a meaningless piece of paper. It has repeatedly shown little allegiance to the spirit of the pact. In 2010, North Korea sank a South Korean warship and launched an artillery attack on an island just south of the maritime border between the two countries, leaving 50 people dead.

Source

 

[Circe]

It has repeatedly shown little allegiance to the spirit of the pact. In 2010, North Korea sank a South Korean warship and launched an artillery attack on an island just south of the maritime border between the two countries, leaving 50 people dead.

It is astounding how brutal are the "provocations" NK routinely does and has for decades --- shooting down a passenger plane, etc. But South Korea never declares war in retaliation nor does it retaliate in ANY way, because a war would kill so many people, presumably.

I think the tensions are such now that we have to expect another North Korean aggression against some small group of people, as is their usual pattern, killing them as a symbolic gesture of aggressiveness. And SK will put up with it, as ever, I suppose.

 

[waltky]

Lil' Kim threatenin' to wipe out S. Korean island...

'We'll show you what real war is like': Kim Jong-un threatens Seoul over island
March 13, 2013 - NORTH Korea leader Kim Jong-un has threatened to "wipe out" a South Korean island as Pyongyang came under new economic and diplomatic fire from US sanctions and UN charges of gross rights abuses.

Military tensions on the Korean peninsula have risen to their highest level for years, with the communist state under the youthful Mr Kim threatening nuclear war in response to UN sanctions imposed after its third atomic test last month. It has also announced its unilateral shredding of the 60-year-old Korean War armistice and non-aggression pacts with Seoul in protest at a joint South Korean-US military exercise that began on Monday. While most of these statements have been dismissed as rhetorical bluster, the latest threat to the border island of Baengnyeong, which has around 5000 civilian residents, appears credible and carries the weight of precedent.

In 2010, the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan was sunk in the area of Baengnyeong with the loss of 46 lives, and later that year North Korea shelled the nearby island of Yeonpyeong, killing four people. On a visit on Monday to frontline artillery units, Kim Jong-un briefed officers on their mission "to strike and wipe out the enemies" on Baengnyeong and turn the island into a "sea of fire". "Once an order is issued, you should break the waists of the crazy enemies, totally cut their windpipes and thus clearly show them what a real war is like," Mr Kim was quoted as saying by the Korean Central News Agency. The disputed sea border off the west coast was the scene of deadly naval clashes in 1999, 2002 and 2009.

"Bye new wifey-poo, me an' my Big Ditch navy are off to do battle with those mean ol' Americans, I'll send you a postcard when we bring them to their knees."

Residents on a number of frontline islands have reportedly taken to sleeping in their clothes in preparation for a night-time alert. The crisis represents an early test for South Korea's new President Park Geun-hye, who was sworn in only two weeks ago, while analysts worry about just how far the inexperienced Kim Jong-un is willing to go. US spy chief James Clapper told senators he was dismayed by the "very belligerent" rhetoric coming from the Kim regime and was "very concerned about what they might do".

In an annual report on global threats the national intelligence director said the North would likely only use nuclear weapons if it perceived a threat to its survival, but the US remains uncertain how Pyongyang would define such a threat. Pyongyang came under attack on another front at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, where the UN special rapporteur on human rights in North Korea laid out a litany of abuses and crimes against humanity. Rights violations in North Korea "have reached a critical mass", Marzuki Darusman told the council, citing public food deprivation, torture and arbitrary detention.

Source

See also:

Will China finally 'bite' North Korea?
Tue March 12, 2013 - North Korean officials said the Korean Armistice Agreement is to be scrapped; Jennifer Lind: Even Beijing signed on to sanctions against its longtime ally; Has China finally had enough? But she says China may still prefer the status quo; Lind: If North Korea collapses, it could potentially destabilize the region, which China fears

North Korea, China's longtime ally, has vexed Beijing for years with its rocket launches, nuclear tests, kidnapping of Chinese fishermen and other erratic behavior. Yet, Beijing has run interference at the United Nations to temper punishments against Pyongyang, and has even helped Pyongyang circumvent sanctions. In the wake of North Korea's third nuclear test in February, its reckless threats to strike the United States, and now -- its decision to scrap the armistice that ended the Korean War -- has China finally had enough?

Beijing signed on to sanctions that, in the words of Susan Rice, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, will "bite and bite hard." China's ambassador to the U.N. declared Beijing's commitment to "safeguarding peace and stability on the Korean peninsula." One shouldn't exaggerate the significance of these recent developments. After all, in the U.N. negotiations over sanctions -- this time as before -- the Chinese have consistently played the role of watering down the degree of punishment imposed against Pyongyang. And in the past Chinese firms have helped North Koreans evade sanctions. It remains to be seen whether Beijing intends to enforce the new measures.

Beijing also has good reasons that continue to make it reluctant to crack down on its unruly ally. The Chinese perceive that they have a powerful interest in maintaining the status quo. As hard as it is to live with North Korea, Beijing fears it may be harder to live without it. The Chinese worry that coming down hard on Pyongyang, by cutting off their vital oil or food exports, could trigger a collapse of the North Korean government or other political instability on the peninsula. Beijing's nightmares include a loose nukes problem and a humanitarian disaster.

Beijing also has fears about the effects of a North Korean collapse on the strategic balance in East Asia. If North Korea collapsed and the two Koreas unified, China might find astride its border a unified, U.S.-aligned Korea hosting American troops. Chinese analysts also commonly argue that North Korea serves as an important distraction for the U.S. military, which might otherwise train its focus on defending Taiwan. Thus, despite the nuisance that North Korea regularly makes of itself, for all these reasons, it would be sorely missed by Beijing.

More Will China finally 'bite' North Korea? - CNN.com

 

[Circe]

Nice newsclips, waltky --- I was particularly interested in this sentence:

"If North Korea collapsed and the two Koreas unified, China might find astride its border a unified, U.S.-aligned Korea hosting American troops."

So this analyst does NOT think America's forward power-projection base in South Korea would fold its tents and slip away if the Koreas were reunited a la Germany. But rather that we would keep the base and refocus on China.

I have been assuming for a few years now that U.S. foreign policy is basically waiting on North Korea to collapse, as such autarkies always do eventually. That is, it's as doomed as Romania was under Ceausescu because the people do gradually find out that the modern world is far, far better off than they are. So may as well wait it out, as with the Soviet Union, which also collapsed under its own weight. There is no need for war if the enemy is simply going to fall to pieces.

 

[jwoodie]

Why don't we send him a Predator?