Nine things we may not have much longer.

[asterism]

Between digital development and the internet you are absolutely right that things are changing in ways that few industries are entirely prepared to cope.

Any industry that involves information has changed so much that it's alarming. And the rate of those changes is only accelerating, too.

So off the top of my head, publishing, recording, entertainment, education and communications are currently attempting to cope with, and take advanatage of these technical changes.

But there's more, too.

Banking is changing, as is bill paying and on and on and on.

And every change does one thing that apparently few of us truly understand is the bleeding EDGE of this techological revolution

Every increase in efficiency also means some people are LOSING THEIR JOBS.

Take my business for example...I can now do ALONE the same amount of work that back in the mid 90s took 4 people to do.

You multiply that kind of increase in efficiency event by millions of small and large businesses and you have the a tsuami of UNEMPLOYABLE people.

It takes fewer and fewer people every day to create the wealth that society needs.

So naturally since we are pretending this is no problem. But for every winner of this change there are a huge number of losers.

Eventually most people will be UNEMPLOYABLE, folks.

This is going happen in the next thirty years or so assuming nothing else changes in society but these technogical advances.

The only real solution (other than mass murder, I mean) is a change in the social contract.

And lord knows the winners of this seachange in how things get done have no vested interest in giving a rats ass about this problem.

You see folks, capitalism is based on the notion of SCARCITY.

But in a lot of cases (everything invovling information) there is NO SCARCITY, in fact quite the opposite.

So KNOWLEDGE (and all those associated with intellectualy property and its dessimination) keeps going down in price.

And unlike the industrial revolution, the displaced workers won't have FACTORIES to work at.

Robots are already displacing factory workers and that trend will only continue.

And no EDUCATION is NOT the solution.

This increasingly production efficienct world only needs so many workers regardless of how educated they are.

Such a 1930s way of looking at the world.

If people can be replaced by robots then maybe the people should work smarter. The days of a guaranteed job at the factory have been gone for a long time. Air Conditioner repairmen still do well in Florida though.

 

[Foxfyre]

When we speak of technology obsoleting the TV, the Post Office, books, and newspapers, I think we neglect the fact that millions of families, about 32% have no connection to the Internet. About 15% of us watch only local TV stations via an antenna.

It may be that there will be a world coming that is more conducive to leisure than work, but it hasn't happened so far despite unprecedented advances in technology over the last 100 years. My grandmother and even my mother for a short while made their own soap and boiled the laundry in a large iron pot set over a wood fire, scrubbed the stains out on a metal washboard set inside a galvanized tub, wrung the soap and water out by hand, hung the clothes to dry on an outdoors clothes line, sprinkled them with a bottle of water with holes punched in the top, folded them up to distribute the sprinkling, and then ironed them - everything - sheets, pillow cases, everything we wore.

Fast forward to my life:

I don't buy anything that has to be ironed, I pitch the laundry in an automatic washer with a capful of storeboat detergent, pitch the washed clothes in the dryer, pull them out of the dryer where they go straight onto a hanger or into a drawer and I'm done. A few minutes max total to do a week's worth of laundry.

You can go right down the line into the convenience of vacuum cleaners, cleaning products, stain resistant fabrics on furniture, great almost carefree tile floors, and all the modern conveniences in the kitchen, frozen foods, great refrigerators and freezers, storebought bread, butter, veggies already cut up and ready to cook, etc.

My computer does accounting and record keeping processes in a few minutes that it once took me all day to do. Where I once went to the library for necessary information, I now type a keyword or two into my browser and voila! There is the information I need.

Yet my grandmother and mother had more real leisure time than I do. They had time to go fishing, to go wild berry picking, to sit on the porch visiting with neighbors, to read big books, to knit afghans and sweaters for Christmas gifts, while my days are full of more and more busyness. The more technology makes us capable of doing, the more we expect to do or are expected to do.

I don't think there's any danger that there won't be work to do for all who want that in the foreseeable future.

 

[asterism]

When we speak of technology obsoleting the TV, the Post Office, books, and newspapers, I think we neglect the fact that millions of families, about 32% have no connection to the Internet. About 15% of us watch only local TV stations via an antenna.

It may be that there will be a world coming that is more conducive to leisure than work, but it hasn't happened so far despite unprecedented advances in technology over the last 100 years. My grandmother and even my mother for a short while made their own soap and boiled the laundry in a large iron pot set over a wood fire, scrubbed the stains out on a metal washboard set inside a galvanized tub, wrung the soap and water out by hand, hung the clothes to dry on an outdoors clothes line, sprinkled them with a bottle of water with holes punched in the top, folded them up to distribute the sprinkling, and then ironed them - everything - sheets, pillow cases, everything we wore.

Fast forward to my life:

I don't buy anything that has to be ironed, I pitch the laundry in an automatic washer with a capful of storeboat detergent, pitch the washed clothes in the dryer, pull them out of the dryer where they go straight onto a hanger or into a drawer and I'm done. A few minutes max total to do a week's worth of laundry.

You can go right down the line into the convenience of vacuum cleaners, cleaning products, stain resistant fabrics on furniture, great almost carefree tile floors, and all the modern conveniences in the kitchen, frozen foods, great refrigerators and freezers, storebought bread, butter, veggies already cut up and ready to cook, etc.

My computer does accounting and record keeping processes in a few minutes that it once took me all day to do. Where I once went to the library for necessary information, I now type a keyword or two into my browser and voila! There is the information I need.

Yet my grandmother and mother had more real leisure time than I do. They had time to go fishing, to go wild berry picking, to sit on the porch visiting with neighbors, to read big books, to knit afghans and sweaters for Christmas gifts, while my days are full of more and more busyness. The more technology makes us capable of doing, the more we expect to do or are expected to do.

I don't think there's any danger that there won't be work to do for all who want that in the foreseeable future.

1. Reorganize your priorities and your finances if leisure time is something that matters to you. I don't know your personal details (don't want to) but it is quite possible to strike a work-life balance that provides a comfortable lifestyle and enough money to pay for it. Technological innovations have made that more possible now than ever before.

2. In early 2009 when my business was in a severe slump I worked hard at trying to find new ways to innovate, but it was not even close to the multiple 120-hour workweeks I've experienced just this calendar year. Yes, 17 hour days for a week or more straight. My normal average of 9 hours a day over 7 days feels like a vacation after that. However, I much prefer this situation because I have a choice medium and long term. I've been working so much to take advantage of opportunities. If the situation is sustainable I'll hire someone to do that part of the job so I don't work so much. Until then, I'll sometimes leave money on the table because I just don't have the time. My elders never had that choice. They relaxed quite well, even in bad times. However, none of them wishes they were forced to relax simply because there wasn't any work available.

Your last sentence is correct though, there is rarely a shortage of work for those willing to work. I fixed computers for $10 in 2008 (not $10 an hour, $10 flat rate) just to keep "some" money coming in and to build a network of people who knew I was good at that in order to avoid laying anyone off. The lowest yearly rate I've paid any employee of mine is $40K. And here I was, sometimes spending an entire day to fix someone's computer at a $1 an hour rate because that was one dollar less I'd have to pull out of savings to keep them employed.

 

[JamesInFlorida]

1. Cigarettes
Use and frequency is way down as are places to smoke. Prices are way up

2. Tombstones
Cremation is gaining acceptance and your future "monument" may be on Facebook

3. Voting Booths
Everyone will be able to vote on-line. No need to pull the lever

4. Classrooms
Kids will attend school through a video link and computer access

5. Playgrounds
They are getting smaller and smaller and less and less fun

My playground was built for speed and no sissies were allowed.

Everything was steel set in concrete that was 'padded' with sand.

Now it's platic set very deep into concrete with ground up rubber as padding.

Great post. I got tons of cuts, and scraps on the playgrounds-and every single one of them was worth it. What happened to kids getting into some trouble, and getting freaking dirty for a change? lol. I'm so glad I'm not a kid right now, with this and these so called "play dates".

I recently was in the old town where I grew up to visit some old friends (I haven't been back there in literally 15 years). The playground's on the way so I thought hey I used to spend so much time here as a kid, why not be a little nostalgic (I'm usually not) and check it out. I was horrified. No more monkey bars, sand box was gone, the see-saws now barely get the kid's feet off the ground, even the concrete path going through the park (there's a few sections to play in), was now even covered with that foam crap. It was really weird not seeing the gradual change-it's as if the kids had to play in a safety bubble, and killed all sorts of imagination and creativity (they put some bars and stuff up from even preventing kids from even climbing up them-only the stairs would get you in-how boring).

As a side note-there were maybe 3-4 kids there-when on the weekend as a kid growing up that place would be packed, me and my friends would get 9-10 kids there ourselves. Maybe it's all the videogames, and tv, maybe it's the playground-probably both.

 

[Foxfyre]

Was thinking about Asterisms comments about time management, and it isn't so much poor time management that fills our lives. I have long known that if you want something done you give it to a busy person to do. On the other hand, if I have a week to get something done I'll take most of the week to do it. But that's different thing.

It's just that having ability to do things more effectively and efficiently puts pressure on us to do things more effectively and efficiently. Our homes are supposed to look like show homes at all times. With automatic floor buffers in office buildings, the floors must have a glossy shine. Before computers, what I was expected to accomplish in a routine audit was a fraction of what clients expected once we had computer capabilities to do a whole lot more. When technology makes it easier to do, there is an expectation to do it better too.

Some of these things we've already mentioned, but this is another list of things that have become obsolete or are fast disappearing just in the past decade:

PDAs (Palm Pilots)
E-mail accounts you pay for.
Dial-up
Getting film developed
Movie Rental Stores
Record/music stores
Folding maps
Classified ads in newspapers
Land lines
Long distance charges
Public pay phones
VCRs
Fax machines
Phone books
Dictionaries
Encyclopedias
Calling 411
CDs
Floppy Disk or CD backups
Paper (hard) copies
Buttons (gave way to the touch screen)

 

[JW Frogen]

A liver if I do not calm dry up quick time.

But then again, who wants to live forever, I have seen everything.

 

[Sallow]

Younger people probably don't feel the sense of loss or even distress that some of us in the 'older generation', but the following nine things may not be with us much longer.

Agree? Rebuttal and disagreement would be welcomed.

1. The Post Office.

Get ready to imagine a world without the post office. They are so deeply in financial trouble that there is probably no way to sustain it long term. Email, Fed Ex, and UPS have just about wiped out the minimum revenue needed to keep the post office alive. Most of your mail every day is junk mail and bills.

2. The Check.

Britain is already laying the groundwork to do away with checks by 2018. It costs the financial system billions of dollars a year to process checks. Plastic cards and online transactions will lead to the eventual demise of the check. This plays right into the death of the post office. If you never paid your bills by mail and never received them by mail, the post office would absolutely go out of business.

3. The Newspaper.

The younger generation simply doesn't read the newspaper. They certainly don't subscribe to a daily delivered print edition. That may go the way of the milkman and the laundry man. As for reading the paper online, get ready to pay for it. The rise in mobile Internet devices and e-readers has caused all the newspaper and magazine publishers to form an alliance. They have met with Apple, Amazon, and the major cell phone companies to develop a model for paid subscription services.

4. The Book.

You say you will never give up the physical book that you hold in your hand and turn the literal pages. I said the same thing about downloading music fromiTunes. I wanted my hard copy CD. But I quickly changed my mind when I discovered that I could get albums for half the price without ever leaving home to get the latest music. The same thing will happen with books. You can browse a bookstore online and even read a preview chapter before you buy. And the price is less than half that of a real book. And think of the convenience! Once you start flicking your fingers on the screen instead of the book, you find that you are lost in the story, And can't wait to see what happens next, and you forget that you're holding a gadget instead of a book. Public libraries are already beginning to convert to more electronic transmission of information with the plus side being able to access that information from your home computer.

5. The Land Line Telephone.

Unless you have a large family and make a lot of local calls, you don't need it anymore. Most people keep it simply because they've always had it. But you are paying double charges for that extra service. All the cell phone companies will let you call customers using the same cell provider for no charge against your minutes

6. Music.

This is one of the saddest parts of the change story. The music industry is dying a slow death. Not just because of illegal downloading. It's the lack of innovative new music being given a chance to get to the people who would like to hear it.. Greed and corruption is the problem. The record labels and the radio conglomerates are simply self-destructing. Over 40% of the music purchased today is "catalog items," meaning traditional music that the public is familiar with. Older established artists. This is also true on the live concert circuit. To explore this fascinating and disturbing topic further, check out the book, "Appetite for Self-Destruction" by Steve Knopper, and the video documentary, "Before the Music Dies."

7. Television sets along with DVD recorder/players and other peripherals.

Revenues to the networks are down dramatically. Not just because of the economy. People are watching TV and movies streamed from their computers. And they're playing games and doing lots of other things that take up the time that used to be spent watching TV. Prime time shows have degenerated down to lower than the lowest common denominator. Cable rates are skyrocketing and commercials run about every 4 minutes and 30 seconds. Sales of DVD players and similar peripherals for home entertainment centers are declining. Network television, the television sets that receive the signals, and all the gadgets associated will inevitably be discontinued.

8. The "Things" That You Own.

Many of the very possessions that we used to own are still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the future. They may simply reside in "the cloud." Today your computer has a hard drive and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents. Your software is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be. But all of that is changing. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their latest "cloud services." That means that when you turn on a computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system. So, Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet cloud. If you save something, it will be saved to the cloud. And you may pay a monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider. In this virtual world, you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any laptop or handheld device. That's the good news. But, will you actually own any of this "stuff" or will it all be able to disappear at any moment in a big "Poof?" Will most of the things in our lives be disposable and whimsical? It makes you want to run to the closet and pull out that photo album, grab a book from the shelf, or open up a CD case and pull out the insert.

9. Privacy.

If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That's gone. It's been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7, "They" know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. And "They" will try to get you to buy something else. Again and again. All we will have that can't be changed are memories.

1. Post Office - Will take a Constitutional Amendment to get rid of it. It's also still a very economical way to ship packages.

2. The Check - That probably is going to go.

3. The Newspaper - Gonna miss it..but it's a goner.

4. The Book - That's not going anywhere. People still love them.

5. The Land Line Telephone - 9/11/2001 taught me how fragile cellular communication really is..but I don't disagree. While I was doing work with the Red Cross..a Vietnam Vet turned me on to Short Wave..and once I settle into my new place..will probably get one.

6. Music - Been around since the dawn of man. It's not going anywhere.

7. TV - It will probably change..but people still like the home theater experience.

8. Things you own - As a UNIX admin..you find out very quickly all about disaster recovery. And while SAN disks are nice..the best thing to have is a tape or disk that isn't prone to failure..as in it's not part of a mechanism.

9. Privacy - I see a backlash coming on this one.

 

[editec]

10. A middle class.

 

[strollingbones]

i still have a land line....cant get cell in the house.....and i like the 911 thing...

books.....no people will always love the feel of a book.....dog ear ing the page...
the richness of a book cannot be duplicated in a kindle

 

[rightwinger]

i still have a land line....cant get cell in the house.....and i like the 911 thing...

books.....no people will always love the feel of a book.....dog ear ing the page...
the richness of a book cannot be duplicated in a kindle

There will always be books in that there are hundreds of millions of books in existence and people will still read them

New books are a different story. The classic bookstore will disappear much like the record stores of our youth. You will still probably find some titles online. Younger readers will grow up with electronic books and will prefer them. Many of these books will probably read themselves to you.

The logistics structure of printing, packaging and distributing books will disappear as e-books are just too easy to distribute

 

[JWBooth]

Any updates where things stand on the anatomically correct female robots technology?

The Japanese are working on it

Yeah, but why do they think a woman's eyes should separated by the length of a hammer handle?

 

[blastoff]

Ever try to find a pay phone lately?

Yes, that's one thing that we've pretty well lost already. When Mr. Foxfyre and I first started our business back in the mid 1980's, cell phones were still in their infancy and we didn't have one. But there was a bank of pay phones inside just about every chain restaurant, in booths positioned along the roads, and it was no problem calling ahead to advise appointments we were on the way, check in with clients, make a call home when we needed to.

Now the pay phones are gone, and if I don't have my cell phone, I feel marooned, isolated, and vulnerable. I like not having to get out in the rain or snow to use the phone, but I miss the option of being able to communicate just about everywhere in all circumstances.

Major airports had banks and banks of pay phones all over the place. As soon as a plane started to unload at a gate a swarm of passengers would head straight to the nearest ones.

 

[Foxfyre]

i still have a land line....cant get cell in the house.....and i like the 911 thing...

books.....no people will always love the feel of a book.....dog ear ing the page...
the richness of a book cannot be duplicated in a kindle

There will always be books in that there are hundreds of millions of books in existence and people will still read them

New books are a different story. The classic bookstore will disappear much like the record stores of our youth. You will still probably find some titles online. Younger readers will grow up with electronic books and will prefer them. Many of these books will probably read themselves to you.

The logistics structure of printing, packaging and distributing books will disappear as e-books are just too easy to distribute

But don't you think there will be fewer and fewer? I thought the Harry Potter craze would regenerate a love for reading in the younger generation, but I'm not seeing that I don't think. Those of us in a generation who read for pleasure are being replaced by a generation less inclined to do that. So I'm seeing libraries disappear from churches, branch libraries consolidating and shrinking, book sections in grocery stores are a fraction of the size they used to be, Barnes & Noble seems almost a sterlile and robotic environment instead of a bustling throng of booklovers when I go in there now. Walden Books left town years ago. Neither of our biggest malls here even have a bookstore.

 

[Nosmo King]

i still have a land line....cant get cell in the house.....and i like the 911 thing...

books.....no people will always love the feel of a book.....dog ear ing the page...
the richness of a book cannot be duplicated in a kindle

There will always be books in that there are hundreds of millions of books in existence and people will still read them

New books are a different story. The classic bookstore will disappear much like the record stores of our youth. You will still probably find some titles online. Younger readers will grow up with electronic books and will prefer them. Many of these books will probably read themselves to you.

The logistics structure of printing, packaging and distributing books will disappear as e-books are just too easy to distribute

My family has owned and operated a print shop here for 90 years. Four generations (my great-grandfather started the shop in 1921) of my family have earned livings there. I remember when the shop had four uncles, two aunts and three non-family employees. That was forty years ago.

Today, my younger brother owns and operates the shop. He has four employees. Gone are at least three letter presses including one that fascinated me as a kid. It made business cards with raised ink. The process was impressing sheets with ink and passing the sheets beneath a gas flame that reacted with the ink to raise it from the page.

My brother still works hard for his dollar, in spite of the computers, off set presses and other automated devices. He still has the last print shop between Cleveland, Buffalo and Pittsburgh that does letter press work.

For the past thirty years, people have been singing the death knell of the print shop. It's still here and working hard to last at least another ten years to celebrate the centennial of its beginning.

 

[westwall]

i still have a land line....cant get cell in the house.....and i like the 911 thing...

books.....no people will always love the feel of a book.....dog ear ing the page...
the richness of a book cannot be duplicated in a kindle

There will always be books in that there are hundreds of millions of books in existence and people will still read them

New books are a different story. The classic bookstore will disappear much like the record stores of our youth. You will still probably find some titles online. Younger readers will grow up with electronic books and will prefer them. Many of these books will probably read themselves to you.

The logistics structure of printing, packaging and distributing books will disappear as e-books are just too easy to distribute

But don't you think there will be fewer and fewer? I thought the Harry Potter craze would regenerate a love for reading in the younger generation, but I'm not seeing that I don't think. Those of us in a generation who read for pleasure are being replaced by a generation less inclined to do that. So I'm seeing libraries disappear from churches, branch libraries consolidating and shrinking, book sections in grocery stores are a fraction of the size they used to be, Barnes & Noble seems almost a sterlile and robotic environment instead of a bustling throng of booklovers when I go in there now. Walden Books left town years ago. Neither of our biggest malls here even have a bookstore.

Books are ingrained in the peoples psyche I think. Educated people will allways desire books.
Even those who are not well educated but were raised with a sense of adventure also like books. They are here to stay.

TV will also stick around. The major networks are suffering because they have gone political. If they would just put out good material people will watch. The independents are doing well and there are more and more stations every year.

Music likewise will survive, just without the major labels. Youtube and the net have made it possible for the small acts to get their music out, the problem is figuring out a way to support them. A way to pay artists equitably for their work needs to be worked out...and soon!

The PO will linger,

Checks will go the way of the Dodo.

Newspapers have been caught fibbing too many times. The people don't like that so they have moved on.

Land lines are here to stay. The infrastructure is in place so for the most part it would cost money to get rid of it so why bother.

Privacy is definately going to be a major issue.

 

[Flopper]

When e-books become the norm in public schools, I think they will become much more popular with the younger generation. It's a shame that they are not used more in public schools. In California a few years ago, there was a push to use them in all public schools as a cost saving measure. Don't know what happened to that idea.

 

[rightwinger]

When e-books become the norm in public schools, I think they will become much more popular with the younger generation. It's a shame that they are not used more in public schools. In California a few years ago, there was a push to use them in all public schools as a cost saving measure. Don't know what happened to that idea.

Easier than carrying home all those books

 

[007]

Shit...

 

[RachelMadcow]

Thanks to Atheist Liberal Democrat teachers I would also Add:

Morals
Personal Responsiblility
Factual American History
Integrity
Gender Identity
Balanced Budgets
American wealth
Feminine Woman
and Tabacco

 

[Foxfyre]

Thanks to Atheist Liberal Democrat teachers I would also Add:

Morals
Personal Responsiblility
Factual American History
Integrity
Gender Identity
Balanced Budgets
American wealth
Feminine Woman
and Tabacco

Well we really haven't been making this thread political but I agree some of the things on your list is at risk to some degree. But I don't think we can blame any one factor or group for that any more than we can blame any one factor or group for the disappearance of other familiar things.