NH: Canary in the polling coal-mine

[pepperpot]

Well the reality is northern New England has always been known for a couple of things, farming and factories (mills). Farmers are getting hammered and the mills have all closed. Some high tech companies moved in like IBM in Vermont but they just sold them to a Chinese company and its possible a ton of jobs could be lost. Financially its possible Vermont could see double digit unemployment if that happens. New Hampshire is now known for defense with the Portsmouth Naval Yard and BAE systems which of course is all dependent on the defense budget. Maine has tourism and some shipbuilding. Energy costs have skyrocketed in New England and many have had a hard time affording their bills. Its certainly been problematic and you are going to see huge changes in the future both socially and politically due to it.

They are getting exactly what they have been voting for for decades.

Some of the best educated, healthiest, least polluting states in the country (all three in the top 10 in each category). They have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of.

They just happen to be extremely white, old, and rural, none of which means high population growth.

Problem is too many companies have moved out leaving the better educated and youth to leave. Many headed to Boston, but even the companies there aren't hiring youth in the numbers they once did so they have a hard time there because they take lower paying jobs which makes it hard to live there as its so expensive. Vermont almost went republican this past November as they came close to taking the legislature and even the governor. As I say, we will see big changes here over the next decade or so..

 

[Nyvin]

Well the reality is northern New England has always been known for a couple of things, farming and factories (mills). Farmers are getting hammered and the mills have all closed. Some high tech companies moved in like IBM in Vermont but they just sold them to a Chinese company and its possible a ton of jobs could be lost. Financially its possible Vermont could see double digit unemployment if that happens. New Hampshire is now known for defense with the Portsmouth Naval Yard and BAE systems which of course is all dependent on the defense budget. Maine has tourism and some shipbuilding. Energy costs have skyrocketed in New England and many have had a hard time affording their bills. Its certainly been problematic and you are going to see huge changes in the future both socially and politically due to it.

They are getting exactly what they have been voting for for decades.

Some of the best educated, healthiest, least polluting states in the country (all three in the top 10 in each category). They have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of.

They just happen to be extremely white, old, and rural, none of which means high population growth.

Problem is too many companies have moved out leaving the better educated and youth to leave. Many headed to Boston, but even the companies there aren't hiring youth in the numbers they once did so they have a hard time there because they take lower paying jobs which makes it hard to live there as its so expensive. Vermont almost went republican this past November as they came close to taking the legislature and even the governor. As I say, we will see big changes here over the next decade or so..

Youth are leaving rural areas across the country. Western Nebraska has been losing population for years, same with West Virginia and northwestern Texas, large chunks of Iowa, most of Kansas outside the city areas. Even neighboring New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Canada are losing population nowadays....it's really not a unique situation to northern New England. I know you're trying to make this into a partisan issue but it really isn't. The country's population explosion is mostly ending and these are the parts that are feeling it first. Even Alabama and Mississippi aren't seeing much growth anymore, simply because they don't have any urban hubs or big metros in their states (not to mention being dirt ass poor...).

All three states can go as Republican as they like, I can guarantee you it won't change much at all.

The GOP came nowhere near taking the Vermont legislature btw, that's just wishful thinking, lol.

 

[pepperpot]

Well the reality is northern New England has always been known for a couple of things, farming and factories (mills). Farmers are getting hammered and the mills have all closed. Some high tech companies moved in like IBM in Vermont but they just sold them to a Chinese company and its possible a ton of jobs could be lost. Financially its possible Vermont could see double digit unemployment if that happens. New Hampshire is now known for defense with the Portsmouth Naval Yard and BAE systems which of course is all dependent on the defense budget. Maine has tourism and some shipbuilding. Energy costs have skyrocketed in New England and many have had a hard time affording their bills. Its certainly been problematic and you are going to see huge changes in the future both socially and politically due to it.

They are getting exactly what they have been voting for for decades.

Some of the best educated, healthiest, least polluting states in the country (all three in the top 10 in each category). They have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of.

They just happen to be extremely white, old, and rural, none of which means high population growth.

Problem is too many companies have moved out leaving the better educated and youth to leave. Many headed to Boston, but even the companies there aren't hiring youth in the numbers they once did so they have a hard time there because they take lower paying jobs which makes it hard to live there as its so expensive. Vermont almost went republican this past November as they came close to taking the legislature and even the governor. As I say, we will see big changes here over the next decade or so..

Youth are leaving rural areas across the country. Western Nebraska has been losing population for years, same with West Virginia and northwestern Texas, large chunks of Iowa, most of Kansas outside the city areas. Even neighboring New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Canada are losing population nowadays....it's really not a unique situation to northern New England. I know you're trying to make this into a partisan issue but it really isn't. The country's population explosion is mostly ending and these are the parts that are feeling it first. Even Alabama and Mississippi aren't seeing much growth anymore, simply because they don't have any urban hubs or big metros in their states (not to mention being dirt ass poor...).

All three states can go as Republican as they like, I can guarantee you it won't change much at all.

The GOP came nowhere near taking the Vermont legislature btw, that's just wishful thinking, lol.

It isn't wishful thinking at all since I am a progressive. It was shocking to see how many legislators lost and then to see Gov Shumlin shut down single payer here. People are really questioning their politics here. Vermont has really only been blue for a couple decades and the local democratic party is very concerned the state is heading back there. The IBM thing really made people sit back and look at it differently. One recent study at UVM said that almost 20% of the recent grads have gotten jobs and moved to Texas for work. It used to be they went to Boston. Some still do but not so much anymore.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Well the reality is northern New England has always been known for a couple of things, farming and factories (mills). Farmers are getting hammered and the mills have all closed. Some high tech companies moved in like IBM in Vermont but they just sold them to a Chinese company and its possible a ton of jobs could be lost. Financially its possible Vermont could see double digit unemployment if that happens. New Hampshire is now known for defense with the Portsmouth Naval Yard and BAE systems which of course is all dependent on the defense budget. Maine has tourism and some shipbuilding. Energy costs have skyrocketed in New England and many have had a hard time affording their bills. Its certainly been problematic and you are going to see huge changes in the future both socially and politically due to it.

They are getting exactly what they have been voting for for decades.

Some of the best educated, healthiest, least polluting states in the country (all three in the top 10 in each category). They have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of.

They just happen to be extremely white, old, and rural, none of which means high population growth.

Problem is too many companies have moved out leaving the better educated and youth to leave. Many headed to Boston, but even the companies there aren't hiring youth in the numbers they once did so they have a hard time there because they take lower paying jobs which makes it hard to live there as its so expensive. Vermont almost went republican this past November as they came close to taking the legislature and even the governor. As I say, we will see big changes here over the next decade or so..

Youth are leaving rural areas across the country. Western Nebraska has been losing population for years, same with West Virginia and northwestern Texas, large chunks of Iowa, most of Kansas outside the city areas. Even neighboring New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Canada are losing population nowadays....it's really not a unique situation to northern New England. I know you're trying to make this into a partisan issue but it really isn't. The country's population explosion is mostly ending and these are the parts that are feeling it first. Even Alabama and Mississippi aren't seeing much growth anymore, simply because they don't have any urban hubs or big metros in their states (not to mention being dirt ass poor...).

All three states can go as Republican as they like, I can guarantee you it won't change much at all.

The GOP came nowhere near taking the Vermont legislature btw, that's just wishful thinking, lol.

It isn't wishful thinking at all since I am a progressive. It was shocking to see how many legislators lost and then to see Gov Shumlin shut down single payer here. People are really questioning their politics here. Vermont has really only been blue for a couple decades and the local democratic party is very concerned the state is heading back there. The IBM thing really made people sit back and look at it differently. One recent study at UVM said that almost 20% of the recent grads have gotten jobs and moved to Texas for work. It used to be they went to Boston. Some still do but not so much anymore.

Your assessment of Vermont's past is correct, imo.

From 1856-1960 Vermont went 27 times in a row for the Republican candidate. It is one of the two states in the Union that FDR never won and one of the only two states that Taft retained for the GOP in 1912 (the other state was, surprise: UTAH). Up till 1912, the smallest GOP margin in VT was +37%.

LBJ picked up the state for the DEMS in 1964 but then it went reliably GOP through 1988. But a funny thing happened in 1988, kind of out of nowhere. In spite of doing very well nationally, Bush, in just a two-man race was not doing well in Vermont. It ended up being a +3.5 margin race in 1988 (the second leanest in the state's history, after 1912), in spite of an exceptionally weak Democratic nominee. As of 1992, the state became a Democratic state, but the seeds for Clinton's victory here were actually planted in 1988, much as the seeds for Obama's first Colorado victory (2008) were planted by John Kerry in 2004.

The kind of margins that Obama enjoyed in 2008 and 2012 were true record setters for the Democratic Party. And the raw vote margins that he enjoyed in this state cast all GOP margins in the shadows.

Unless the state really, really empties out in the next 6 years, I see no real reason to think it is going to be a red state again.

 

[pepperpot]

They are getting exactly what they have been voting for for decades.

Some of the best educated, healthiest, least polluting states in the country (all three in the top 10 in each category). They have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of.

They just happen to be extremely white, old, and rural, none of which means high population growth.

Problem is too many companies have moved out leaving the better educated and youth to leave. Many headed to Boston, but even the companies there aren't hiring youth in the numbers they once did so they have a hard time there because they take lower paying jobs which makes it hard to live there as its so expensive. Vermont almost went republican this past November as they came close to taking the legislature and even the governor. As I say, we will see big changes here over the next decade or so..

Youth are leaving rural areas across the country. Western Nebraska has been losing population for years, same with West Virginia and northwestern Texas, large chunks of Iowa, most of Kansas outside the city areas. Even neighboring New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Canada are losing population nowadays....it's really not a unique situation to northern New England. I know you're trying to make this into a partisan issue but it really isn't. The country's population explosion is mostly ending and these are the parts that are feeling it first. Even Alabama and Mississippi aren't seeing much growth anymore, simply because they don't have any urban hubs or big metros in their states (not to mention being dirt ass poor...).

All three states can go as Republican as they like, I can guarantee you it won't change much at all.

The GOP came nowhere near taking the Vermont legislature btw, that's just wishful thinking, lol.

It isn't wishful thinking at all since I am a progressive. It was shocking to see how many legislators lost and then to see Gov Shumlin shut down single payer here. People are really questioning their politics here. Vermont has really only been blue for a couple decades and the local democratic party is very concerned the state is heading back there. The IBM thing really made people sit back and look at it differently. One recent study at UVM said that almost 20% of the recent grads have gotten jobs and moved to Texas for work. It used to be they went to Boston. Some still do but not so much anymore.

Your assessment of Vermont's past is correct, imo.

From 1856-1960 Vermont went 27 times in a row for the Republican candidate. It is one of the two states in the Union that FDR never won and one of the only two states that Taft retained for the GOP in 1912. Up till 1912, the smallest GOP margin was +37%.

LBJ picked up the state for the DEMS in 1964 but then it went reliably GOP through 1988. But a funny thing happened in 1988, kind of out of nowhere. In spite of doing very well nationally, Bush, in just a two-man race was not doing well in Vermont. It ended up being a +3.5 margin race in 1988 (the second leanest in the state's history, after 1912), in spite of an exceptionally weak Democratic nominee. As of 1992, the state became a Democratic state, but the seeds for Clinton's victory here were actually planted in 1988, much as the seeds for Obama's first Colorado victory (2008) were planted by John Kerry in 2004.

The kind of margins that Obama enjoyed in 2008 and 2012 were true record setters for the Democratic Party. And the raw vote margins that he enjoyed in this state cast all GOP margins in the shadows.

Unless the state really, really empties out in the next 6 years, I see no real reason to think it is going to be a red state again.

Nate Silver did a great in depth article on Vermont's politics a couple years ago. We had a republican governor just 5 years ago and almost had one this past year as the determination had to go to the legislature for the first time in over a hundred years. Some progressives were ousted last term for what we still call "blue dog dems." As far as going red not as long as the GOP keeps a clown car. It might change if there was a more moderate candidate like a Huntsman perhaps. The biggest concern here is the loss of jobs and the fact that they keep telling the residents they have to leave because we are "too liberal" doesn't help. Its really an interesting phenomenon sort of similar to Massachusetts who everyone keeps saying is "deep blue" but yet has had 3 out of the last 4 governors a republican. Dems need to work on their local game a lot more in my opinion.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...-liberal-but-old-vermont-is-still-there/?_r=0

 

[Nyvin]

Dems need to work on their local game a lot more in my opinion.

I'd agree with this.

Governors usually aren't as associated with the national party as other officials usually are though. Mississippi, Montana, West Virginia, Louisiana, and even Wyoming have all had democratic governors within the last 10 years, they can be a lot more elastic on their policy stances to fit their state.

 

[pepperpot]

Dems need to work on their local game a lot more in my opinion.

I'd agree with this.

Governors usually aren't as associated with the national party as other officials usually are though. Mississippi, Montana, West Virginia, Louisiana, and even Wyoming have all had democratic governors within the last 10 years, they can be a lot more elastic on their policy stances to fit their state.

I think speaking as a rural democrat (we do exist!) I think the dems deal too much in policy and not enough in ideology, whereas the GOP speaks only in ideology. Rural farmers and residents are not college educated and don't want to feel subhuman. Too many NYC liberals refer to rural areas as "backwards" and that doesn't help. Rural areas used to be extremely blue and have been "forgotten." A back to grassroots approach could work.

 

[dcraelin]

New Hampshire is a putrid little state whose opinion none should give a damn about, yet the media of both camps will fawn over this sickening arrogant little state during the primary. This state is probably one of the least representative of the nation as a whole demographically and the dupes in the media let it lead the way.