Nate Silver, pretty amazing

Discussion in 'Politics' started by CrusaderFrank, Nov 11, 2012.

  1. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Nate Silver nailed the last 2 Presidential elections. In comparison, Rasmussen and Gallup were wooden teeth and buggy whips.

    How did he do it?

    Time to admit he's doing something right and the others are out of step
     
  2. dblack
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    dblack Gold Member

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    I'm not really sure it's a matter of the Nate Silvers in the world having any special insight, but more a sort of willful effort on the part of the media to make a 'contest' out of it, even if it's obviously not. It's better for ratings, and the parties indulge it hoping that phony indications of possible success might create the real thing. Coke and Pepsi baby...
     
  3. C_Clayton_Jones
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    C_Clayton_Jones Diamond Member

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    The averaging and evaluating of all polls is clearly the way of the future, not to say that single National polls such as Gallup are now useless, but they need to be taken into account in the context of all polls, including state polls. It was the focus on state polls, particularly in BG states, over a long period of time that allowed Silver to be so accurate.
     
  4. Greenbeard
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    Greenbeard Gold Member

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    If the last several years are any indication, Gallup actually is pretty goddamned useless.
     
  5. Freewill
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    Freewill Gold Member

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    Actually the last two elections were not that hard to call. Even though I deluded myself into thinking that maybe it was about the economy neither election really was.
     
  6. NYcarbineer
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    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

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    An easy election to call?

    lol, tell that to all the conservatives on this forum who called it for Romney.

    The realclear state poll final averages called the election, almost perfectly. The big miss was Florida, where the realclear average had two pollsters in I never heard of giving it to Romney by 5 points.
     
  7. rh287
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    rh287 BANNED

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    Yeah, Silver really is. I don't like the fucker and was sure his numbers were wrong this time. I was so wrong. The guy really is amazing sorry to say.
     
  8. Freewill
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    Freewill Gold Member

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    Not easy for everyone especially at the time. But the writing was on the wall. I think most of the posturing you saw was wishful thinking, on my part, then an appreciation of reality. I did predict an Obama win even though I hoped beyond hope it would not happen.
     
  9. Mac1958
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    Mac1958 Platinum Member

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    .

    Does Silver describe how he does this stuff, or does he keep his system proprietary?

    .
     
  10. rh287
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    rh287 BANNED

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    Yeah, he does describe in detail most of it. And he is a gifted writer at doing that as well. Some of his methods have to be proprietary though, to be so accurate all by his lonesome. I'll bet anything he wished to God he had not sold his Blog to the NY Times now. It is worth a fucking God-Awful fortune as of Nov 7th 2012.
     

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