My read on the economic numbers this morning

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Jul 14, 2009.

  1. Neubarth

    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

    Nov 8, 2008
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    PPI has soared to +1.8%
    Retail Sales are up 0.6%
    Inflation and misleading retail sales numbers.


    PPI --That index measures prices of goods at the wholesale level. If that is not contrived (artifically manipulated as so many of the reports have been since March), it will make retail sales go up even if the profit is going down. Interesting.

    I am writing this as I am waiting for retail sales.

    Retail sales are coming in at +0.6%. Knowing that wholesales prices are up almost 2%, this number is frightening. It would imply that actual profit at all the retail stores across the nation has to be plummeting because inflation is soaring at 12% a year as of June.

    At the least, the deflation appears to have gone away. If two percent a month inflation hits us, we are looking at run away inflation just getting started. One month does not a whole year make, of course.

    So, I look back and remember the following in the past week or two.

    June Retail Sales (profit) have shown a Continued Slump

    According to data released last week, June same-store sales stunk pretty much across the board:

    Mall stalwart Abercrombie & Fitch saw sales plummet 32 percent

    Luxury retailer Neiman Marcus' results fell 20.8 percent

    And even discount chains suffered, with Target's sales dropping 6.2 percent.

    NOT Good, and indicative of further economic collapse, but you can bet that the Obama Administration will ballyhoo the increasing retail sales number as proof that the economy is soaring.

    For that to play with people, the retail stores are going to have to come up with excuses for all the lost revenue. I think some of them were saying recently that it was because of the cooler June temperatures and that caused people to not go shopping.

    HA! I laughed when I heard that on the radio the other day. Could it be that 30,000,000 Americans who do not have jobs or full time jobs are just not spending as much money as they used to????

    I'll let you guys ponder that for a while.

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