MoreRCP Poll Reading Problems--Statistical Tie Is Not A Toss-Up!

Discussion in 'Politics' started by mascale, Oct 24, 2010.

  1. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    So in the year of the "energized" Republican base, they are still a minority party. Putting that aside, in a Florida District, along the Atlantic Coast, a three percent difference between two candidates, with 9% undecided: Is neverthess not a Real Clear Politics, (RCP), "toss-up." A previous poll a month earlier had even shown the Democrat winning. Instead, RCP puts the district in the "lean Republican category.

    West Winning Wild CD 22 Race, Poll Shows | Sunshine State News

    Apparently the district is in fact uusally Democrat.

    Along the California Coast, a "red tide," is all about waves of dead plankton near the shore. At night, it even glows. It goes away. At RCP it would seem that a "red tide" is about everyone, even if the numbers are not even close to a potential majority outcome, one way or another. The "energized base" would better be said to have already spoken, Leaving the undecided nine percent in the lop-sided category: And possibly in the other direction.

    The report of the poll even alludes to the "energized base," without noting that it is less than a majority faction.

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
    (ArizonaSenator, He-Who-Flaps-Like-Mudhen, is technically a Vietnam Veteran, which was not entirely Republican, even at the time. Mostly, when not attempting to fly, he was in Nixon's famous "other side," having hls arms broken(?). That eventually was the side that won!)
     
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  2. RadiomanATL
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    RadiomanATL Senior Member

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    So a tie is not a tie?


    Baghdad Bob, is that you?
     
  3. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    A tie goes to the Democrat
     
  4. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    The mayor of Palm Springs, CA is relatively well-liked, and the incumbent former Mrs. Sonny Bono has a Conservative challenger. More importantly, the District GOP advantage is only 3% in registration, and the top of the California ticket is resoundingly Democratic. Brown has a 13% lead through 10/20, and Boxer has an 8% lead in the same LA Times/USC poll. That one is front page news, just today.

    In California, more importantly, Women and Hispanics are trending away from the GOP!

    The Conservative Base of CA45 doesn't even like the incumbent. The District has gone for the Democrats in recent outings.

    That is considered, "Likely GOP," at Real Clear Politics House race trends.

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!)
    (Many Nations knew when to keep Lands for themselves, even!)
     
  5. Mini 14
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    Mini 14 Senior Member

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    Polls don't matter. The vote matters.

    We're talking about Florida, where EVERY vote is a mystery anyway.
     
  6. Missourian
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    Missourian Gold Member

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    See..right here is your problem:



    If you start with a faulty premise, you conclude with a faulty result.

    [​IMG]


    Likely Voters Demographically Typical, but Skew Conservative
     
  7. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    Again, anyone might guess that the Tea Party/GOP is better thought of as an unwanted, minority, abberation. It has not energized the linked race, at all! The incumbent Democrat is leading, and most of the time.

    RCP therefore blatantly labels it, "Leans GOP!"

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - New York 23rd District - Doheny vs. Owens

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
    (When logic fails, then the Tea Party is there(?)!"
     
  8. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    Likely Voters are not all regisgtered voters. The Democratic Party Identification started to turn back to Democrat at the end of the summer, which traditionally happens before the middle of Fall: If even Conservatives are to be understood(?)!

    Party identification edge erodes for Democrats - The Hill's Ballot Box

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
    (In The George Bush Caused, Tea Party(?) Iraq, even voting does not guarantee that there will be a government!)
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2010
  9. LiberalNut
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    While it is true that likely voter methodology skews the sample to the right, it is also true that voter turnout is a variable, not a constant. Put your faith in likely voter methodology at your own peril. If turnout is light, the poll will be hyper-accurate. If turnout is higher than expected, the poll will be laughably false.

    That said, the OP is spot on. RCP should know that the sample is skewed to the right by the likely voter definition. Thus, anything within the margin of error should at worst be a toss-up and at best be a lean Dem. Putting the race under consideration into the lean Repub column is unjustified and it makes one wonder what the true intentions and motivations of RCP really are.

    This thing is shaping out to be closer than all the hype has lead us to believe. While the MSM pretty much parrots the Republican talking points about enthusiasm gaps, voter anger at the administration and whatnot, the real numbers seem to be trending Dem in the final runup to election day. Early voting is not so tilted to Republicans as the so-called "enthusiasm gap" would predict either. To tell you the truth, I always doubted the utility of these numbers anyway.

    My guess: The Dems keep the Senate by 3-4 seats and the House is too close to call. Repubs definately gain seats but whether they pick up enough for the gavel is a 50-50 proposition at this point.
     
  10. Missourian
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