Long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible

[elektra]

Thus far, we have seen that long term predictions from early in this century have not materialized. Al Gore's predictions are good examples. None of the predictions thus far have come true so now the predictions are made so far in the future, nobody will be alive to see if they are true.

long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible

Is this true, long-term predictions are not possible? It is very much true. There are too many variables, there is too much data, not enough computing power, to possible figure out what our future climate will be.

Do I need a link to prove that this statement is right? It seems to me, that it is common sense if one has just a little bit of understanding of the world around themself and a little education.

 

[elektra]

This is a nice failed doomsday climate prediction, a massive famine was predicted in the 1960's to occur in 1975

Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions - Competitive Enterprise Institute

Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today. None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true. What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and...

cei.org

 

[BlindBoo]

Al Gore's predictions are good examples.

Al Gore is not a scientist. He always highlighted the worst case scenarios and always qualify his conclusion with "if current trends continue", or "If this turns out to be true" like any good snake oil salesman learns how to do. Take his possible ice free arctic prediction which might have been true if the small date range he was looking at continued for another decade, it didn't. When the most common prediction was around or after 2050 and many well after.

"Arctic sea ice area (SIA) has been declining rapidly throughout the year during recent decades with a steeper decline since 2000. Based on a model selection approach applied to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models, Notz et al.1 projected that the Arctic Ocean will become sea ice-free in September for the first time before 2050, irrespective of emission scenarios. However, the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change2 assessed that “it is likely that the Arctic Ocean in September, the month of annual minimum sea ice area, will become practically ice-free (SIA < 1 × 106 km2) averaged over 2081–2100 and all available simulations” only under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios."

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario - Nature Communications

A dominant influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in all months. By scaling climate models’ sea ice response to best match observed trends, an ice-free Arctic in September is projected under all scenarios.

www.nature.com

 

[luiza]

Just follow the money and you will always see the true motivation and understand the reason for the lies .

 

[elektra]

Al Gore is not a scientist. He always highlighted the worst case scenarios and always qualify his conclusion with "if current trends continue", or "If this turns out to be true" like any good snake oil salesman learns how to do. Take his possible ice free arctic prediction which might have been true if the small date range he was looking at continued for another decade, it didn't. When the most common prediction was around or after 2050 and many well after.

"Arctic sea ice area (SIA) has been declining rapidly throughout the year during recent decades with a steeper decline since 2000. Based on a model selection approach applied to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models, Notz et al.1 projected that the Arctic Ocean will become sea ice-free in September for the first time before 2050, irrespective of emission scenarios. However, the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change2 assessed that “it is likely that the Arctic Ocean in September, the month of annual minimum sea ice area, will become practically ice-free (SIA < 1 × 106 km2) averaged over 2081–2100 and all available simulations” only under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios."

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario - Nature Communications

A dominant influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in all months. By scaling climate models’ sea ice response to best match observed trends, an ice-free Arctic in September is projected under all scenarios.

www.nature.com

This IPCC prediction contradicts the comment, which is my title, Long term prediction of future climate states is not possible.

Under any scenario, it is impossible to make this long-term prediction. There are too many variables.

 

[elektra]

Just follow the money and you will always see the true motivation and understand the reason for the lies .

It must be exciting to be a participant in getting a part of this kind of money

$300 trillion is needed to stop global warming, and that’s a bargain

As shockingly large as this number may seem, it’s minimal compared with the likely price tag for doing nothing.

www.smh.com.au

Bloomberg’s green-energy research team, BNEF, estimates in a new report this week it could cost $US196 trillion ($295 trillion) in investments to zero out the world’s carbon emissions by 2050, as many countries have pledged to do, to avoid society-destroying global warming.

 

[BlindBoo]

This IPCC prediction contradicts the comment, which is my title, Long term prediction of future climate states is not possible.

Under any scenario, it is impossible to make this long-term prediction. There are too many variables.

They are presuming the same weather patterns and solar cycles of the current epoch to continue. Unknown variables are a different, like a volcanic eruption that cools the atmosphere or a period of weak/strong solar output. The scientist are more like oddsmakers in Vegas. Educated guesses for sure. For example they say more likely than not when the odds are simple greater than 50/50. They have facts however, like the volume of the Greenland Ice Cap and can calculate that if it melts the oceans would rise about 20 or more feet. What they don't say much about is that most likely, under current conditions, it will take five hundred to over a thousand years for it to melt. One of the strangest of the prediction I've read about is hurricanes in the Atlantic. As the Atlantic basin warms we will see less hurricanes, not more.......

I disagree with the title because it is entirely predictable regardless of what we humans do.

"How long the ongoing ‘interglacial’ period will last depends partly on changes in the orbital size, shape and axial tilt of the Earth..."

Will there be another Ice Age? | BBC Science Focus Magazine

An Ice Age, otherwise known as a glacial period, refers to the cooling climate change that periodically freezes Earth.

www.sciencefocus.com

I don't believe that natural warming or man made warming will stop it.

 

[elektra]

They have facts however, like the volume of the Greenland Ice Cap and can calculate that if it melts the oceans would rise about 20 or more feet. What they don't say much about is that most likely, under current conditions, it will take five hundred to over a thousand years for it to melt. OnThey are presuming the same weather patterns and solar cycles of the current epoch to continue.

I disagree with the title because it is entirely predictable regardless of what we humans do.

My title is a quote from the 4th IPCC report, chapter 14.2.2.2
I found it interesting in comparison to so many people who believe the long term predictions of the IPCC and the "99.7%" of scientists.

Nobody knows if the earth will be warmer tomorrow let alone a 100 years from today.

 

[Crick]

My title is a quote from the 4th IPCC report, chapter 14.2.2.2
I found it interesting in comparison to so many people who believe the long term predictions of the IPCC and the "99.7%" of scientists.

Nobody knows if the earth will be warmer tomorrow let alone a 100 years from today.

I found it interesting that you took that quote so far out of context.

Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including development and exploration of long-term ensemble simulations using complex models. The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system�s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive and requires the application of new methods of model diagnosis, but such statistical information is essential.

Ever since FAR (the First Assessment Report) the IPCC has given a range of possible outcomes for almost every climate parameter. The quote you've extracted from this text is simply saying that the IPCC's assessment reports won't be giving singular projections and they never have. You're so far out of context here it could probably be considered lying.