Disir
Platinum Member
- Sep 30, 2011
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While the fall of Mosul would effectively end the "caliphate," it will not solve deep divisions over power, land and resources between Iraq's Shi'ite Arab majority and the important Sunni Arab and Kurdish communities.
"Once ISIS is defeated in Mosul, the greatest challenge to the Iraqi government is to reconcile the differences between the Shia-dominated government, the Sunnis out west and the Kurds to the north," Stewart said.
The Iraqi Kurds have their own armed forces, the Peshmerga, which in 2014 prevented Islamic State from capturing the oil region of Kirkuk, after the Iraqi army fled in the face of the militants.
The Kurds have historical claims over Kirkuk, which is also inhabited by Turkmen and Arabs. Hard-line Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi'ite militias have threatened to expel the Kurds by force from this region and other disputed areas.
"Resolving the Kirkuk oil field and the revenues associated with the oil fields, resolving the ownership of the city of Kirkuk, will be significant political challenges for the Iraqi government," Stewart said.
He warned of dire consequences should Baghdad be unable or unwilling to reach an understanding with the Kurds or the Sunnis.
"Failure to address those challenges, coming up with a political solution, will ultimately result in conflict among all of the parties to resolve this and going back to what could devolve into a civil strife in Iraq," he said.
Kurdish independence in Iraq likely 'not if but when': U.S. general
Another carving is imminent.
"Once ISIS is defeated in Mosul, the greatest challenge to the Iraqi government is to reconcile the differences between the Shia-dominated government, the Sunnis out west and the Kurds to the north," Stewart said.
The Iraqi Kurds have their own armed forces, the Peshmerga, which in 2014 prevented Islamic State from capturing the oil region of Kirkuk, after the Iraqi army fled in the face of the militants.
The Kurds have historical claims over Kirkuk, which is also inhabited by Turkmen and Arabs. Hard-line Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi'ite militias have threatened to expel the Kurds by force from this region and other disputed areas.
"Resolving the Kirkuk oil field and the revenues associated with the oil fields, resolving the ownership of the city of Kirkuk, will be significant political challenges for the Iraqi government," Stewart said.
He warned of dire consequences should Baghdad be unable or unwilling to reach an understanding with the Kurds or the Sunnis.
"Failure to address those challenges, coming up with a political solution, will ultimately result in conflict among all of the parties to resolve this and going back to what could devolve into a civil strife in Iraq," he said.
Kurdish independence in Iraq likely 'not if but when': U.S. general
Another carving is imminent.
