SweetSue92
Diamond Member
The jobs report - IMO - was a mixed bag.
On the plus side? 157,000 is a decent number - though the Establishment survey is tarnished by the ridiculous Birth Death model. But the Household Survey (what the U-3 is based on) was up a whopping 389,000. ALso, the U-6 was way down from 7.8% to 7.5%.
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Plus, the employment-population ratio (to me a FAR better barometer of employment than the joke U-3) was even up to the highest it has been since 2009. Though the ratio has been steadily rising - off and on - since 2014...so Trumpbots, don't freak out now.
But all of this is good.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
The bad news?
Wages and the types of jobs created since April.
Wages were up 2.7% annually (which is less than the inflation rate). And both average weekly hours and average weekly wages were down.
And before you claim 'summer jobs did that'? These numbers are not raw - they are seasonally adjusted.
Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
Finally, there is this chart:
It's Not All Good: Here Is The Real Problem Deep Inside The Jobs Report
It basically shows that since the tariffs have started to bite - jobs are going more to the less educated. And they generally make less money than the educated.
This explains why though the jobs numbers have been generally good - wages are not growing that well and are, in fact, no longer keeping pace with inflation.
And that is bad.
Always look past the headlines.
I heard an economist today puzzling over this. He said in such a tight market he would expect wages to go up. However he said part of it might be older, higher-earning workers retire as younger workers are now able to find jobs. He's thinking we'll see an uptick in wages soon, but who knows.