James Hansen hedges his bets..

Discussion in 'Environment' started by flacaltenn, Jan 18, 2018.

  1. flacaltenn
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    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

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    Seems like the "coal trains of death" guy is finally acknowledging Solar Maxes and Solar Mins. Even posting the wimpy Solar cycle TSI decline charts -- heading for a possible Solar min..

    And the authors own up to possibly "slim pickings" in store for the Warmer press releases of doom and gloom for the next decade or so...

    http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20180118_Temperature2017.pdf


    Prospects for continued global temperature change are more interesting and important. The record
    2016 temperature was abetted by the effects of both a strong El Niño and maximum warming from the
    solar irradiance cycle (Fig. 4). Because of the ocean thermal inertia and decadal irradiance change, the
    peak warming and cooling effects of solar maximum and minimum are delayed about two years after irradiance extrema.
    The amplitude of the solar irradiance variation is smaller than the planetary energy imbalance, which has grown to about +0.75 ± 0.25 W/m2 over the past several decades due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases.5,6

    However, the solar variability is not negligible in comparison with the energy imbalance that drives global temperature change. Therefore, because of the combination of the strong 2016 El Niño and the phase of the solar cycle, it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus’
     
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  2. Billy_Bob
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    Billy_Bob Platinum Member

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    Me thinks Hansen is hoping that the cooling that has already started doesn't last 10 years...

    I would tell him to not hold his breath...
     
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