pinqy
Gold Member
All true.Well look....were the numbers intentionally cooked by the Obama administration? No. Let's not get crazy here. However, are they accurate? Oh hell no. What we are seeing in this report is a statistical anomaly. It's the result of more people leaving the workforce, inaccurate projections of what would happen by the BLS when they applied their seasonal adjustments, and possibly an outlier in their polling (yes, these statistics are done in large part by simple polling which is subject to an outlier effect just like any other poll).
Actually, in this case it does. Employment from the Household survey went up by 873,000 and Unemployment went down 456,000The problem is that there is a misunderstanding of what the U3 unemployment rate actually is and that misunderstanding is perpetrated by the media according to their biases. What this report actually says is that fewer people met the definition of U3 unemployed...that does not mean that more people found jobs as a percentage of the workforce.
No, the Labor Force Participation rate increased from 63.5% to 63.6%The workforce participation rate remained the same
Because of part time for economic reasons going up a lot.and the U6 unemployment rate was unchanged.
The U6 is (Unemployed + Marginally Attached + Part time for Economic reasons)/(Labor Force + Marginally Attached). Unemployment and Marginally Attached went down, (U5 and U6 also went down) but Part time for economic reasons went up enough to compensate for the increase of Labor Force.
The Establishment survey (payroll numbers) aren't used to calculate any of the Labor Force stats.That would make a lot of sense because the payroll reporting indicated 114,000 new jobs and 120,000 are required to keep up with population growth. In other words we actually went backwards by 6,000 which is not enough to raise the U6 by a tenth of a percent.
Except the Labor Force went up. And the seasonal adjustment calculations are projections, it's a statistical adjustment calculated from past variance.The reason why it appears that there is a drop in the U3 is because the BLS fucked up their seasonal adjustment projections and more people dropped out of the workforce.
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