Is China Mobilizing For A War With Japan?

[Doc91678]

by Tyler Durden
February 10, 2013

We don't know if it merely a coincidence that a story has emerged discussing a Chinese mobilization in response to the ongoing territorial feud with Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands (and the proximal massive gas field) the very week that China celebrates its new year (and days after news that a Chinese warship was very close to firing on a Japanese destroyer). We don't know how much of the story is based in reality, and how much may be propaganda or furthering someone's agenda. What we do know is that the source of the story: offshore-based, Falun Gong-affiliated NTDTV has historically been a credible source of information that the China communist party desperately tries to censor, such as breaking the news of the SARS epidemic in 2003 some three weeks before China publicly admitted it. Its motto is "to bring truthful and uncensored information into and out of China." If that is indeed the case, and its story of major troop movements and mobilization of various types of military vehicles and artillery into the Fujian and Zhejian provinces, bordering the East China Sea and closest to the Diaoyu islands, is accurate, then hostilities between China and Japan may be about to take a major turn for the worse.

Fujian and Zhejian provinces highlighted below:


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Is China Mobilizing For A War With Japan? | Zero Hedge

 

[RetiredGySgt]

And if it comes to blows we have Obama as President. I hate to break it to him but his draw down and his use of drones won't help Japan. Who is our MILITARY ally.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

I don't know why you guys consider religious cults with agendas legitimate news sources.

That goes for the Washington Times too.

 

[Saigon]

There is a lot of tension concerning these islands, and also the Spratleys, but I don't think war is likely.

I think it is more sabre rattling.

RetGySGT - Do you really want to send US troops into the middle of a China v Japan war? Why?

 

[RetiredGySgt]

There is a lot of tension concerning these islands, and also the Spratleys, but I don't think war is likely.

I think it is more sabre rattling.

RetGySGT - Do you really want to send US troops into the middle of a China v Japan war? Why?

So our treaties and our alliances are all lies? We should refuse to defend Japan if attacked by China because it is China? You realize if China attacks Japan we have a binding legal treaty that requires us to help Japan Militarily?

You understand if we refuse to stand by our treaties none of our allies will believe we will honor treaties we have with them?

You have no honor and no morality if you believe we should ignore our treaty obligations cause you are personally afraid of what might happen.

 

[Unkotare]

You have no honor and no morality ....

I think this part captures his character exactly.

 

[Unkotare]

Both China's new president and Japan's new prime minister have called for increasing communication and easing tensions around this issue. Most recently, Abe proposed installing a 'hot line' between Beijing and Tokyo specifically for the Senkaku issue. Both administrations need to look 'tough' on the issue for their domestic audiences, but it seems that the two leaders are not interested in any kind of real conflict that neither one is prepared for. Let's hope that is the case, at least.

 

[waltky]

Doc quoted: ...(and the proximal massive gas field)...

There ya have it...

... dat's what it's all about.

 

[Unkotare]

This one is about more than just that.

 

[Saigon]

RetiredGS -

Alliances are alliances - but any war must first and foremost be in the interests of the American people.

I don't believe entering a war with China would be in America's interests; not to defend Japan nor Taiwan. Not right now, anyway. You cn't afford it.

 

[Meathead]

Japan has kept its military limited per the peace treaty at the end of WW II and the US guarantee. It is doubtlessly incumbent upon the US to defend Japan.

Having said that, war is the last thing China wants or needs right now. They are taking the baby-steps of an emerging world power

 

[Saigon]

They are taking the baby-steps of an emerging world power

Baby steps?

They have the 2nd largest GDP on earth, and a balance of trade with the US that gives them enormous influence over the country, and you call that baby steps?

(Baby steps isn't hyphenated, btw)

 

[Meathead]

They are taking the baby-steps of an emerging world power

Baby steps?

They have the 2nd largest GDP on earth, and a balance of trade with the US that gives them enormous influence over the country, and you call that baby steps?

(Baby steps isn't hyphenated, btw)

I don't see your point regarding baby steps. China has very recently emerged as an internationally significant power. It has been a very, very long time that China has been able to assert itself beyond it adjacent neighbors. China has also been unable to assert its claim to Taiwan, a few hundred miles off its coast.

They are still very limited in their ability to project power, having only one recycled Soviet aircraft carrier and very little in the way of being able to defend it in a major conflict. Baby steps is an accurate description of the tentative movements they are making inthe international stage.

 

[Unkotare]

RetiredGS -

Alliances are alliances - but any war must first and foremost be in the interests of the American people.

I don't believe entering a war with China would be in America's interests; not to defend Japan nor Taiwan. Not right now, anyway. You cn't afford it.

He was right about you. If they're all like you at home, its no wonder why your country is so irrelevant.

 

[Saigon]

I do agree that this is a relatively recent change, but the growth on this chart doesn't look as much like baby steps as giant leaps to me.

 

[Meathead]

I do agree that this is a relatively recent change, but the growth on this chart doesn't look as much like baby steps as giant leaps to me.

We are obviously talking at cross purposes here. I am addressing China as a nascent military power, which after all this thread suggests, rather than an economic power. They obviously had to succeed economically before they could progress militarily beyond the early Cold War status of their military. They are still very fall behind the US, but are now able to assert limited power beyond their adjacent borders, something they were unable to do in the past.

 

[JoeB131]

And this is our problem, why?

Neither Japan nor China could afford a war. China would find a lot of those western business contracts drying up if they tried it.