Iraq and Afghanistan Will Cost Trillions in the Future

[Synthaholic]

Iraq and Afghanistan Will Cost Trillions in the Future



Kennedy School professor Linda Bilmes finds that the all-in costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will measure in the $4 trillion to $6 trillion range when all is said and done. But that's not the most terrifying element of her survey of the fiscal impact of the "war on terror" and related undertakings. What should really strike fear into your heart is her finding that "the largest portion of that bill is yet to be paid."




That's because equipment lost or destroyed in the wars is going to have to be replaced, interest on the money borrowed to finance the wars is going to have to be paid, and most of all because health care and disability benefits are going to have to be paid well out into the future. The wars not only lead to a lot of people being wounded, but inspired Congress to make the welfare state for veterans substantially more generous than it had previously been. In addition, the practice of battlefield medicine has improved substantially which means we ended up with an unusually high share of wounded soldiers to dead ones by historical standards.


It's a great illustration of the Norman Angell point that starting wars is a bad idea. What conceivable "oil weapon" could be wielded against the U.S. economy due to lack of military hegemony in the Persian Gulf that would approach that cost?

 

[waltky]

Taxpayer money bein' wasted in Afghanistan & at home...

Billions in US aid to Afghanistan at risk, IG report warns
July 30, 2013 - 'Growing gap' between policy, reality in Afghanistan, SIGAR reports

Less than 18 months before all foreign combat troops are to leave Afghanistan, there are still billions of U.S. tax dollars at risk of being wasted — or worse, funneled to insurgents and terrorists — if the American government doesn’t do more to ensure reconstruction money is spent properly, according to a quarterly report from the top government watchdog agency in Afghanistan. “There appears to be a growing gap between the policy objectives of Washington and the reality of achieving them in Afghanistan, especially when the government must hire and oversee contractors to perform its mission,” said Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) John Sopko in a letter introducing the report. The report reiterated that some U.S. contract money is going to insurgents and terrorists.

The inspector general recommended 43 companies and individuals be suspended or blocked from receiving government contracts because of ties to insurgents or terrorists but the Army rejected each suggestion, the report said. “I am deeply troubled that the U.S. military can pursue, attack, and even kill terrorists and their supporters, but that some in the U.S. government believe we cannot prevent these same people from receiving a government contract,” Sopko said in his introduction letter. “I feel such a position is not only legally wrong, it is contrary to good public policy and contrary to our national security goals in Afghanistan.” Army spokesman Matthew Bourke said, “Quite simply, the Army Procurement Fraud Branch did receive and review the 43 recommendations late last year, but the report did not include enough supporting evidence to initiate suspension and debarment under Federal Acquisition Regulations.”

In addition, the inspector general’s office announced it has launched an initiative to examine how money is spent on installation of the final turbine at the Kajaki Dam project. The turbine would provide power to perpetually electricity-starved Kandahar, the cradle of the Taliban and a strategic city for Afghanistan. The effort to install a third turbine on the key hydroelectricity producer in the volatile province of Helmand has been in the works almost since the outset of the war in 2001 and is still not complete, despite the U.S. spending tens of millions of dollars on the project. It is often pointed to as one of the signature failures of America’s aid program in Afghanistan.

Earlier this year, the U.S. abruptly dropped plans for the U.S. Agency for International Development to complete the work, deciding instead to give $75 million directly to Afghanistan’s national utility to finish the project. “SIGAR’s prior work has raised concerns about the readiness of the Afghan government to handle direct assistance, which is why we remain concerned about the prospects of success at Kajaki,” Sopko said in his letter. In a prepared statement, a USAID official said the Afghan national utility, Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS), has proved effective in managing its assets, pointing to a 67 percent increase in payment collection from 2010 to 2012. “USAID conducted a rigorous financial management assessment of the organization and determined that DABS has the ability to effectively manage the Kajaki Dam project,” Gordon Weynand, acting assistant to the administrator in the Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs, said in an emailed response to Stripes questions.

Among other findings highlighted in the report:

See also:

Little restraint in military giveaways
July 31, 2013 — Small-town police departments across the country have been gobbling up tons of equipment discarded by a downsizing military - bicycles, bed sheets, bowling pins, French horns, dog collars, even a colonoscopy machine - regardless of whether the items are needed or will ever be used.

In the tiny farming community of Morven, Ga., the police chief has grabbed three boats, scuba gear, rescue rafts and a couple of dozen life preservers. The town's deepest body of water: an ankle-deep creek. An Associated Press investigation of the Defense Department program, originally aimed at helping local law enforcement fight terrorism and drug trafficking, found that a disproportionate share of the $4.2 billion worth of property distributed since 1990 has been obtained by police departments and sheriff's offices in rural areas with few officers and little crime. The national giveaway program operates with scant oversight, and the surplus military gear often sits in storage, the AP found.

Using a series of public records requests, the AP obtained thousands of pages of emails and other documents related to the program locally and nationally. The documents, along with interviews of participants and regulators, reveal that staffing shortages and budget constraints have made it difficult for federal and state program officials to keep track of all of the property and to prevent police forces from obtaining excessive amounts of used military equipment and other Defense Department-transferred property. Program officials often have to trust recipients to follow the rules and take only what they can utilize; requests for equipment are reviewed, but the process hasn't stopped many overly aggressive departments from grabbing property that could be better used by other communities with a greater need.

For many, the opportunity to amass a vast array of gear with few strings attached has proven to be too tempting to pass up, leading to a belly-up-to-the-open-bar mentality. Morven Police Chief Lynwood Yates, for example, has acquired a decontamination machine originally worth $200,000 for his community of about 700 residents, and two additional full-time officers. The high-tech gadget is missing most of its parts and would need $100,000 worth of repairs. He also received a shipment of bayonets, which have never made it out of storage in his 1.7-square-mile city. "That was one of those things in the old days you got it because you thought it was cool," Yates said of his bayonets. "Then, after you get it, you're like, `What the hell am I going to do with this?' "

Morven isn't the only example of a giveaway program gone wild: Before his firing earlier this year for an unrelated matter, the police chief in Rising Star, Texas - the only full-time officer in the town of 835 residents - acquired more than $3.2 million worth of property within 14 months. According to an inventory obtained by the AP, the hundreds of items included nine televisions, 11 computers, three deep-fat fryers, two meat slicers, 22 large space heaters valued at $55,000 when new, a pool table, 25 sleeping bags and playground equipment. Federal officials suspended Rising Star from the program in March after investigators discovered that many items - including 12 pairs of binoculars - were missing from police department facilities. "He was getting any kind of equipment he wanted," Rising Star city attorney Pat Chesser said. "I don't understand why any one city would get that amount."

BIG IDEAS, SMALL RESULTS

 

[Auteur]

It's a great illustration of the Norman Angell point that starting wars is a bad idea. What conceivable "oil weapon" could be wielded against the U.S. economy due to lack of military hegemony in the Persian Gulf that would approach that cost?

Exactly. Unfortunately, so often the best and brightest are not the ones making decisions on these issues. Blind, unquestioning patriotism further abets the problem.
Tragedy evolves into farce when we see how quickly history moves on. Germany and Japan are now solid allies, Vietnam a trading partner, and fracking may well end US interest in the Persian Gulf region.