toomuchtime_
Gold Member
- Dec 29, 2008
- 20,180
- 5,070
- 280
Cannot get in there soon enough. I just want the regime targeted, because if it is destroyed and a rational one takes over, the nuke program becomes less of an issue.
What makes you think a "rational" regime will take over?
I think a strike will:
-Delay the inevitable for about 2-3 years.
-Will push the Iranian nuclear weapons program even further underground.
-Potentially motivate the Iranians to ramp up their efforts, because if a country like Israel (with 550+ fully armed nuclear warheads, mind you) is capable of striking at will, then there's a greater case for Iran to build up its own defenses.
-Will likely escalate into a larger-scale ground war which could destabilize the region and will cost the United States a lot of lives and a lot of money.
*One scenario would be if ran, for instance, retaliates by filling the strait of Hormuz with mines. If these are to be cleared out, the US/Israel will have to take out all of the ground defenses that overlook the straight so that Iran does not attack when the mines are being dismantled.
I don't want Iran to have nukes either, I just don't know if the pros of an attack are worth all of the cons I list above.
If a "strike" is done properly, and the sanctions are kept in place, it will likely end the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Most of the estimates of the consequences of a strike against Iran's nuclear weapons and long range missile programs assume it will be a surgical strike only against these programs, but this would be irresponsible since, as you noted, Iran has threatened various forms of retaliation. A high priority of any strike should be to take out as much as possible Iran's ability to project power beyond its borders by destroying its navy, missile launchers, etc. as well as any research facilities that may be related to military applications. Such preemptive actions will limit Iran's ability to retaliate.
Iran's economy is already in the toilet with inflation running over 21% - some say as high as 50% - and its currency, the rial, having lost 75% of its value in the last few months. Iran has been rushing to buy up huge amounts of basic items such as wheat before the sanctions make it close to impossible for Iran to buy or sell anything internationally. Nearly all the items needed for its nuclear weapons and long range missile programs have been bought on the black market at premium prices over a period of years, and it is highly unlikely that as long as its economy remains on life support Iran will be able to make any substantial efforts to replace the billions of dollars of equipment that will be destroyed.
As for Israel's nukes, Iran has no more reason to fear them than it has to fear any other country's nukes unless Iran plans to try to nukes Israel.
Last edited: