Iran: Trouble, opportunity, or both

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by ekrem, Oct 12, 2005.

  1. ekrem
    Offline

    ekrem VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,243
    Thanks Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +375
    EQUILIBRIUM BY BURAK BEKDIL

    Wednesday, October 12, 2005
    http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=25624

    Burak BEKDİL

    A witty article in the British satire publication Private Eye reads: �America and Britain today gave a stark warning to Iran that, unless it curbs its nuclear ambitions, they will do nothing. The fact that…� the article then satirically quotes President George W. Bush as saying, �… unlike Iraq, Iran actually will have weapons of mass destruction that means both [British Prime Minister] Tony [Blair] and I are committed to doing nothing…� The facts may be a little bit different from satire.

    The Turkish Republic is located in quite an unfortunate part of the world, and is heir to a most difficult Ottoman inheritance -- it is not only exposed to the risk of �externalities,� its eastern neighbors often �export to it,� but also of deep-rooted historic disputes with most of its neighbors. Iran may be the new Iraq for Ankara, but may also become an opportunity to mend fences with Washington.

    The knives are about to be brought out. Officially, Turkey keeps itself aligned with European Union policy on Iran's nuclear program. Unofficially, Turkey shares U.S. concerns that Iran may possess weapons of mass destruction in six months to three years. That would not only mean a security threat to Turkey and to the region, but would also �squeeze� Turkey between two not-so-friendly states with nuclear capabilities -- Iran and Russia. The bitter truth pushes Turkey closer to the U.S. position and, as it does so, creates an opportunity for Ankara to converge with U.S. interests after the major divergence during and after the Iraq war. More and more people in gray office buildings in Ankara tend to believe Iran must be stopped.

    The policy of kowtowing to the Iranians goes back a long way. It started in the late 1980s when Sir Geoffrey Howe, the then British foreign secretary, attempted to establish a constructive dialogue with the mullahs in what proved a futile effort to persuade Tehran to free British hostages in Lebanon. As part of this policy the British government took the controversial decision to drop its claim that the Iranians had masterminded the Lockerbie terrorist atrocity that killed 270 people [when an aircraft was blown apart above the Scottish border town before crashing into it] in 1988, even though British intelligence uncovered significant evidence of Iranian involvement.

    Fast forward to 2005, Britain, along with France and the �Persia-philic� Germany, advocate that the best way to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program is to pursue a �negotiated solution.� No doubt the EU heavyweights' pacifism is music to the mullahs' ears. When Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, accused the West of �sponsoring terrorism� at last month's United Nations General Assembly, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw assured the Iranians that �the crisis would not be resolved by military means� (and, by the way, the mullahs must have fallen about with laughter in Tehran upon news that Mohammed Elbaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), won the Nobel Peace Prize. This is the same Elbaradei who said he had no evidence that Libya was building an atomic bomb until Libyan leader Col. Gaddafi saw the light after the Iraq war and publicly renounced his nuclear weapons program).

    Once again, trouble looms at Turkey's doorstep. The Iranians have invested too much time and money in their nuclear program. More importantly, they quite rightfully believe the nuclear option is their only means if they are to be �militarily deterrent� to the West. The reasoning is quite simple: this is an ideological matter; so, without nuclear weapons the Americans will drop their bombs over Iran sooner or later; and with nuclear weapons they may not risk a reciprocal Iranian attack in the form of nuclear bombs sent to Tel Aviv or Ankara or who knows where. Nuclear weapons are Iran's only chance to have some degree of deterrence.

    The looming stalemate risks Turkey's security and stability in the region before there is faint hope for some stability in Iraq, and Syria standing as a potential reason for more East-West confrontation may leave Turkey alone in the middle once again. But regarding Iran, Turkey privately backs the U.S. position.

    Twice in a month, Washington bigwigs came to Ankara to gauge, after the misfortunes over Iraq, the Turkish thinking. Stephen Hadley, national security advisor to Bush and Robert Joseph, the top state department official for (other states') non-proliferation, were in town to talk about Iran, particularly Joseph. He may not have won a Turkish carte blanche for an end-game he himself does not know, but at least he now knows Iran will not be a second Iraq between Turkey and the United States.

    It's highly improbable, but Ahmedinejad should sit down and wonder why Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke to him in �coded warning language� at their bilateral meeting in the U.N. building last month. The trouble with the mullahs is that they believe they are smarter than all evil foreigners.

    ------------

    sorry, but access to the article you have to be memeber of Diplomat-Newspapaer "Turkishdailynews"...
    So i have posted the whole article.
    Next week Israels Air-Force commander is comeing to Turkey.
     
  2. ekrem
    Offline

    ekrem VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,243
    Thanks Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +375
  3. ekrem
    Offline

    ekrem VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,243
    Thanks Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +375
    Iran panel to vote on bill to block IAEA inspections


    TEHRAN (AP) — Parliament's most powerful committee has decided to vote on a bill that would force the government to block intrusive inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities by the UN nuclear agency if it refers the country to the UN Security Council, state radio reported Monday.

    The Foreign Policy and National Security Committee approved the outline of the bill late Sunday and will vote on it Tuesday, the radio quoted lawmaker Mahmoud Mohammadi as saying.

    Once the committee has approved it, the bill will go to a full session of parliament for debate and a vote. If parliament passes the bill, it will go to the Guardian Council, a hardline constitutional watchdog, for ratification.

    "On the basis of this bill, the government will be required to cancel its voluntary implementation of the additional protocol to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if Iran's nuclear dossier is referred to the UN Security Council," Mohammadi was quoted as saying by the radio.

    Under the additional protocol to the treaty, Iran has been allowing inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to carry out short-notice inspections of its nuclear facilities. Iran has signed the protocol but never ratified it.

    Last month, the IAEA passed a resolution that put Iran on the verge of being referred to the Security Council, which could impose sanctions, for a lack of transparency on its nuclear programme. Iran rejected the resolution as "illegal and illogical" and accused the United States of orchestrating it.

    To avoid referral, Iran is being told to suspend all uranium enrichment activities including uranium conversion, to give up construction of a heavy water nuclear reactor and to give agency experts access to research, individuals, locations and documentation.

    The resolution also demands that Iran immediately ratify the additional protocol.

    Iran's government has said it will not stop uranium conversion. It has also said that unless the IAEA backs down, it will resume uranium enrichment, block inspections of its nuclear facilities and cut trade with countries that supported the resolution.

    The IAEA resolution was passed after Iran rejected a European package that called on Iran to permanently give up uranium enrichment, a process that can be used to produce nuclear fuel or nuclear weapons.

    Talks between Britain, Germany and France — which negotiated on behalf of the 25-nation European Union — and Iran collapsed in early August after Iran resumed uranium reprocessing activities at its Uranium Conversion Facility in Isfahan, in central Iran. Tehran had voluntarily suspended uranium conversion work under a November 2004 deal with the European troika.

    Tuesday, October 18, 2005

    http://www.jordantimes.com/tue/news/news7.htm
     
  4. ekrem
    Offline

    ekrem VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,243
    Thanks Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +375
    Iranian Media Calls the Gov't to Cut Ties with Britain

    By Cihan News Agency (TURKEY)
    Published: Tuesday, October 18, 2005


    Iranian Newspaper Kayhan called the Iranian government to cut ties with Britain.

    After Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinajad accused Britain of involvement in the bomb attacks that took place at the southern city of Ahvaz last week, Kayhan, one of Iran's influential newspapers, called Iran to cut diplomatic ties with Britain on Tuesday.

    The editorial article of the newspaper read, "Tolerating imposed crisis is against our dignity. We should start with mild reactions like closing the British embassy and eventually sever the ties." The article wrote that Britain was clearly behind the attacks and that severing the ties was the least that could be done to prevent Britain from interfering in Iran.

    Siyaset-i Ruz, on the other side, wrote the bomb attacks were masterminded by Britain.

    http://www.zaman.com/?bl=hotnews&alt=&trh=20051018&hn=25489


    it is heating up.
    Meanwhile a turkish firm "Turkcell" (Mobeli Operator) won a order to build up a second GSM-Net in Iran for 2,5 Billion US dollar.

    Iranians cancelled this order now unexpectedly allthough the order was fix.
    Turkcell is now in Theran at court courting Iranian ministry of Telecommunications.


    Hmm, perhaps it has to do something with the heated situation Iran is faceing.
     
  5. ekrem
    Offline

    ekrem VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,243
    Thanks Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +375
  6. ThomasPaine
    Offline

    ThomasPaine Active Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2005
    Messages:
    399
    Thanks Received:
    66
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Ratings:
    +66
     
  7. ekrem
    Offline

    ekrem VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,243
    Thanks Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +375

    Turkey will request nothing from USA. Because Iranian won't get nuclear weapons. It is against the interest of both nations and Israel and everyone else in the region.

    Turkey builds from 2007-2012 3 Nuclear facilities. Russian, USA, France and German firms are at present competing for the offer.


    Turkey signed non-proliferation contract. But Turkey is capable of building nclear weapons.
    --->

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/19/politics/19prexy.html
    (...)
    Among the countries that are widely known or thought to be able to produce nuclear weapons, but which have not done so because of their desire to comply with the terms of the nonproliferation treaty, are Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.
    (...)



    In Incirlik there are American nuclear weapons. 10 of them are given to Turkey for protection. The codes has a US-commander in Incirlik.



    But this is not the point of the concern here. Because as long Iran doesn't get Nuclear, Israel will remain the only Nuclear Power in Mid-East.
    When Iran gets nuclear weapons, Turkey will begin the next day on its own Program, which will not last 10 years.


    But we are going to prevent this in order Iran not getting Nuclear weapons.
    And Iran will not attack Turkey or threaten Turkey, because we are in conventional warfare capable of shooting every Jet of Iranians into Nirvana.
    But when Iran gets Nuclear weapons it changes. Because Iran has then the gurantee of Nuclear Weapons, giving them the ability to intervene in all aspects of the Middle-East.


    When Israel jets start off from Turkey to attack Iran, and maybe ?? US-Jets ??, Iran will not attack Turkey as revenge. When it does, it will take Turkish Army into Battleground ----> towars Iranian territory.
     
  8. ekrem
    Offline

    ekrem VIP Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,243
    Thanks Received:
    370
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Ratings:
    +375


    (Turkish General Staff)
    http://www.tsk.mil.tr/eng/konusma/gnkurIIncibsk_atckonusmasiogleyemegi_eng__06062005.htm



    this word were from 2004 when second General Staff Ilker Basbug visited Washington.
    Nothing changed. In opposite, the stance of turkey against Irans nuclear program is clear.

    Iran is going to UN-Council. when there is not found a comfortable solution due to China and Russia, then all options are on the table, as President Bush said.
    And Turkey will support GB+Israel+USA with military bases.

    http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2005/october/10_17_2.html
    read it yourself.



    US+GB don't need turkish bases for attack, as you have other geographical possibilities, but Israeli jets are open since 1996 for turkish airspace.
    And Iran won't do anything about this.

    Our boarders with Iran are in a geography up to 5.000 meter Mountains.
    How will there MBT, infantry and soon come to turkey?
    No chance. The only thing is their Airforce and attack helicopters comeing to Turkey.
    But their Airforce is crap, and Iranian jets entering Turkish airspace is meaning war. Because the same way from Teheran to Ankara it is the same way from Ankara to Teheran.

    This is all diplomacy so far, to pressure Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions.
    Let's hope, Iranians will step back from their present way. But nothing shows that iran will step back from Nuclear plans, as you can see in this thread with the provided news.
    Nothing going to happen in near future (1-12 months)...

    But all options are on table.
     

Share This Page