If the Sauds are overthrown...

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by Paulfrank, Apr 25, 2004.

  1. Paulfrank
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    Paulfrank Guest

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    What do you think we would do.

    Secrure the oil fields and let the country burn?

    or

    Secure the oil fields and try to establish a democratic goverment?
     
  2. Comrade
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    Comrade Senior Member

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    I believe a Civil war in Saudi Arabia is exactly what Al-Quada is working for.

    The only source of any serious coup would come from the religious authority of Wahabbi clerics.

    In that event, we’d have to intervene. We’d be begged for help from the Kingdom who lost control of the monster they created, but the lesson from Carter’s Iran demonstrates the installation of a hostile Islamic state is always worse. And Saudi Arabia is much more important to the Western economy and security than Iran ever was.

    Our involvement against what would be seen as a legitimate uprising among the "holy ground" of Islam would cause a much greater reaction to it’s followers than Afganistan and Iraq ever did.

    And securing the oil fields would be the least of our problems if the revolt involved the bulk of their army. We'd lose our most important bases in the Middle East, and would face severe shortages of ports and airfields to operate any counter-attack from, and those left would be very hard to secure.

    At that point the cost for the West to establish any kind of real victory escalates. It’s a matter of national will and undisputed power against a fifth column propaganda campaign, oil shocks, backstabbing allies, and Liberal voters. In that case it’s easy to imagine some negotiated settlement could occur, leaving the problem to fester and spread, as Islamic regimes always do.

    If that happens, at some point it would come to nukes.

    And radioactive oil is no good.
     
  3. preemptingyou03
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    preemptingyou03 Member

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    I fail to believe we will ever use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear weapon state.
     
  4. Comrade
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    Comrade Senior Member

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    An Islamic victory in Saudi Arabia where the US lacked the resolve to intervene, virtually ensures a nuclear capable regime.

    The premise for nukes is based upon the retreat of US forces from a full scale confrontation with the Islamists.

    There is no middle ground for a negotiated peace with these religious thugs. We learned that lesson from Iran, and lo and behold, Iran is arming for nuclear confrontation.
     

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