How soon to the next big correction/crash?

[Iceman]

I don't know. We lived in a controlled economy. Those that have the money will engineer the collapse when they can reap the greatest profit. When that is, I can't say.

 

[Geaux4it]

The laws of gravity come to mind. What goes up, must come down. This rising market is overbought and one day big money is going to want payday. When?

-Geaux

 

[william the wie]

The laws of gravity come to mind. What goes up, must come down. This rising market is overbought and one day big money is going to want payday. When?

-Geaux

The average guess is June but Galton's law does not apply to stock market predictions.

 

[sjay]

November 2014: If the GOP loses the House, investor confidence will evaporate.

November 2014: If the GOP loses the House, investor confidence will incinerate.

Fixed it for ya....

So what do you propose,that we put our money under the matress.

 

[rdean]

Republicans think the crash caused by their deregulation and moving jobs to China and the redistribution of wealth to the top 1% is a "correction".

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The Fed will collapse the economy right after the 2014 shellacking

 

[Old Rocks]

LOL. And all you nervous nellies predicted utter collapse if President Obama was re-elected. Didn't happen, won't happen.

 

[Mr. H.]

LOL. And all you nervous nellies predicted utter collapse if President Obama was re-elected. Didn't happen, won't happen.

Not as long as he's in office. Until then, he will keep pumping $85 billion every month into the economy. Too much funny money will ultimately prove to be the downfall of our entire economy... and possibly the economies of other nations.

 

[william the wie]

LOL. And all you nervous nellies predicted utter collapse if President Obama was re-elected. Didn't happen, won't happen.

Not as long as he's in office. Until then, he will keep pumping $85 billion every month into the economy. Too much funny money will ultimately prove to be the downfall of our entire economy... and possibly the economies of other nations.

7% of GDP in stimulus each and every year cannot be maintained. That Fed inflation targets are not being reached is down right scary.

 

[Moonglow]

Trying to determine how far out to buy puts.

If there was a a republican president I can guarantee it would be a cycle of every 4 years.

 

[Animus]

It's a great question. I have 0 idea when the "house of cards" will collapse. My only two guesses is either when the Fed stops QE or when the dollar loses its status as the reserve currency of the world. The dollar is already slowly losing its status as more and more countries trade using the Yaun. Not to mention that the Chinese announced that they're going to sell off Treasury Bonds. At this point in time I think a dollar collapse is more possible than a market correction.

 

[william the wie]

It's a great question. I have 0 idea when the "house of cards" will collapse. My only two guesses is either when the Fed stops QE or when the dollar loses its status as the reserve currency of the world. The dollar is already slowly losing its status as more and more countries trade using the Yaun. Not to mention that the Chinese announced that they're going to sell off Treasury Bonds. At this point in time I think a dollar collapse is more possible than a market correction.

One will equal the other I suspect.

 

[Mr Natural]

What the hell is a put?

It's a type of option you buy when you think the underlying security is going to go down.

 

[SteadyMercury]

Can we define "crash" here? Are you talking about a 10% correction, a 20% bear market, or a 1929/2008 type dealie?

 

[JWBooth]

I dunno, but I expect it in the next year.

 

[william the wie]

Can we define "crash" here? Are you talking about a 10% correction, a 20% bear market, or a 1929/2008 type dealie?

I think it depends on how fast and how far the price at the pump declines and that in turn depends on developments and advances in pipeline building. Not just Keystone but also with Mexican denationalization and East African pipeline deals on the table we could be looking at $40/bbl or less. That figure could destabilize a huge hunk of the world.

Methane from coal fields also comes into play. I've heard figures as high as 500 year energy supplies for the UK and 1,000+ years for the US from just this one source.

A slow price drop to $70/bbl equivalent by mid-term election 10% correction.

$60/bbl Arab spring again.

$50/bbl Russia and/or China might see a revolution because of heavy investment in expensive energy.

$40-/bbl a huge blow off of value due to capital flight.

The amount of write offs of investment in expensive energy could be greater than $10 trillion and how quickly it is written down matters a great deal.

 

[SteadyMercury]

I guess I'll just keep on throwing money into the pit and rebalancing annually to maintain my AA.

It has been about a +20% year for me, so could swallow a pretty big decline and still be close to square on the deal.

 

[william the wie]

Prefer a lazy man portfolio myself but to each his own.

 

[MHunterB]

I guess I'll just keep on throwing money into the pit and rebalancing annually to maintain my AA.

It has been about a +20% year for me, so could swallow a pretty big decline and still be close to square on the deal.

We've only gotten about 17% this year - but then we're closing in on retirement age and trying to preserve what we've got so far. Our alleged/purported/rumored retirement income will exceed our current monthly budget by a good sum (partly because we are putting the max into tax-deferred savings AND paying down the mortgage faster), so we are expecting to still 'put by' in the first few years of our actual retirement.

 

[william the wie]

Smart move. Marketwatch and Real Clear Markets are good resources on retirement account amounts.