Housing starts appear to be trending Down

william the wie

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Nov 18, 2009
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Nationally this is due to a variety of factors that reinforce each other.:

lack of skilled workers to keep up with demand.

The labor shortage causing wage push inflation.

Interest rate hikes to limit inflation also increase mortgage expenses and this is where it gets tricky.

Land appreciates but stick and bricks usually don't. Mortgages are paid on both the land and the structure and generally appliances.

Then there are non-national trends:

Availability of jobs and real estate appreciation vary a lot. Worse yet availability of jobs and real estate appreciation is highly dependent on SALT which is the major reason for employers to migrate. Lower state taxes leads to higher returns for business owners. This is why IL, NY and CA are seeing rising poverty rates while FL, TX and the Carolinas are generally seeing reduced poverty rates. So we will see a high SALT housing collapse probably this year.

But the question is how bad it will get and how quickly?
 

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