Here is the key to Trump's loss

JakeStarkey

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2009
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The difference in their favorability rating among the electorate will swing the states either way.

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 48.1 41.9 Clinton +6.2
4-Way RCP Average 44.8 39.0 Clinton +5.8
Favorability Ratings -9.9 -25.7 Clinton +15.8
Live Betting Odds 85.0 15.0

Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 262 164 Clinton +98
No Toss Up States 333 205

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo has Trump at 175 EV, but I think it is 169 or less. He could as high as 218 if the undecideds go for him.
 

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