P F Tinmore
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- Dec 6, 2009
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Athens will get a 12 billion ($17.39 billion) tranche of its existing 110 billion rescue package by July 15, in time to meet several bond repayment deadlines this month and next, the finance ministers of the 17 countries that share the euro said in a statement Saturday evening. The eurozone and the International Monetary Fund will also continue to prop up Greece's struggling economy in the coming years, with a second package of aid loans to be finalized by September.
While the renewed commitments save Greece from immediate collapse, even its international creditors long the biggest optimists on the country's prospects are warning that getting down a debt of 160 percent of economic output will be a difficult balancing act. "The Greek government debt will remain for many years at a high level and, therefore, subject to possible adverse developments that cannot be predicted," the European Commission, the EU's executive and one of the three institutions in charge of Greece's bailout, said in a report published Saturday.
Especially lower than expected economic growth "would put the debt trajectory on a clearly unsustainable upward path," the commission said. In an illustration showing several scenario's for Greece's debt load, growth of just 1 percentage point below expectations would leave Greece's debt around 170 percent of gross domestic product past 2020, with the graph pointing firmly upward.
The report, the basis for the ministers' decision to release the July aid installment and prepare a new bailout, is the most pessimistic assessment from the commission yet. Private analysts and economists have long questioned the sustainability of Greece's debt. However, the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF have so far, at least publicly, upheld their belief that Greece's situation is manageable.
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The European Union approved the disbursement of it's last $17 billion tranche of bailout funding Saturday, putting Greece's debt crisis at bay -- for now. With the last part of the $156 billion bailout package in place, the struggling nation will be able to keep functioning for a little while longer. The disbursement, which will be made by July 15, follows the Greek Parliament's approval of new austerity measures. This latest piece is the fifth tranche of a bailout that was approved by members of the European Union last year.
"The Greek authorities provided a strong commitment to adhere to the agreed fiscal adjustment path, and to the growth-enhancing structural reform agenda, which are essential components of our strategy to restore fiscal sustainability and safeguard financial stability," ministers said in a statement Saturday. European officials will now work on a second proposed bailout.
The bailout is a highly contentious subject in Greece. As the Greek Parliament voted in favor of the funding on June 28, thousands of protesters descended on Athens and clashed with riot police. Tear gas choked the streets as protesters and police pounded each other with clubs and firebombs. However, the bailout won't take care of the nation's long-term budget problems, according to Mark Blyth, an economics professor at Brown University in Providence, R.I.
"This is simply giving them more breathing space, while they're kicking the can down the road," Blyth said, referring to the bailout. "They need to have enough money to cover the primary fiscal debt, and for keeping the lights on at the hospitals and military bases. Once they've got that, they're able to default without shutting down the country." Blyth believes that a Greek default is inevitable. "Ultimately, there's no way the Greeks can pay back what they've borrowed," he said.
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