Global warming? Nope. Just normal weather patterns.

Discussion in 'Environment' started by DavidS, Apr 29, 2009.

  1. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    The middle and end of next week (and maybe longer) are setting up to be quite warm to hot once again for much of the Eastern U.S.... with widespread 80s and 90s expected.

    This round looks more humid, so it should be more noticeable. And Midwest should be more involved as well.

    The lastest 12z Euro is flat out "Hot" for the East Coast later next week... showing a +20ºC bubble at 850mb centered around Newark next Thursday! Check out this pretty map from MDA-EarthSat...

    [​IMG]


    Models agree rather well on this... although the Euro has it the strongest and longest. Summer starting early this year!

    The models are forecasting this because of an early season Bermuda High and -PDO. This has NOTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL WARMING! This is NORMAL WEATHER.
     
  2. k2skier
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    k2skier Senior Member

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    Everyones entitled to their opinion...

    It is a major influence due to the planet warming, how much is AGW is the question.

    When one of the "fuels" for our weather engine is changed, temperature/heat, it will alter the dynamics of our planets weather. When and how much will this effect our overall climate, only time will tell.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2009
  3. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    NO! This is NOT an opinion! This is a FACT. Do you even know how a -PDO effects our weather or what even causes a -PDO/+NAO?
     
  4. k2skier
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    k2skier Senior Member

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    No, no I don't. Do you fully understand it?

    Wow, I call you out on your post about it snowing in Hawaii and you go over board on the meteorology geek speak.

    A question for you; what causes a Bermuda High and -PDO? Natural fluctuations or? I'm curious, and would like a serious answer.
     
  5. code1211
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    code1211 Senior Member

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    In every example in which CO2 has changed in the last million years, it has changed due to the rise of temperature.

    Now CO2 has risen and there are those who say that this will surely cause a rise in temperature.

    To me, this seems akin to noting that every time a diesel bus idles inside a garage, there is a build up of diesel exhaust. One day, the mechanic in the garage next door vents the fumes from his garage into the garage with the bus parked and turned off.

    The observer notes that the diesel exhaust is becoming thick and therefore, the bus must be about to start running.

    Of course this is absurd. The build up of diesel exhaust is a result of the engine running and the simple presence of diesel exhaust will not cause the bus to start.

    Why is the prediction of a result creating a cause less absurd when discussing CO2?
     
  6. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    I don't know any way to explain the -PDO without discussing meteorology geek speak. To put it in layman's terms, the PDO is the temperature of subsurface water North of 20 degree N.

    There are about 10-15 factors that go into the cause of a negative PDO. I would have to sit here and explain every single one of them. My suggestion would be to go back to my meteorological geek speak thread and read it - research it, understand it. The QBO, PDO have the biggest impact on what the ENSO is... and right now, we're looking at a moderate El Nino developing this Summer. If the PDO turns postive with a moderate El Nino, you're going to be looking at one of the snowiest winters on record for the NE next year.

    I'll explain in another thread.
     
  7. k2skier
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    k2skier Senior Member

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    Thanks. I was curious what the acronyms stood for... 11-13 hour days, I don't have much time to sit in front of the PC this time of year and research.

    Trying to predict winter from the beginning of spring is half voodoo this early. Ocean temperatures and currents effect our weather tremendously.
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Of course, if we are still in a solar minimum, and still feeling the effects of a La Nina, but still have a year that is in the top ten recorded for temperature, that cannot possibly have any connection to global warming. No way, no how, Jose!
     
  9. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Totally wrong. In the glacial and interglacial periods of the last 2 million years, the Milankovic Cycle has been the driver. The warming of the Southern Ocean by that forcing causes the release of CO2, which acts as a feedback, creating even more warming. When the Milankovic Cycles begin to go the other way, less forcing, the natural geologic processes remove more of the CO2 from the air, and the resulting negative feedback results in another glacial period.

    However, when something puts vast amounts of GHGs into the air, then the Milankovic Cycle is irrelevant, because of the much greater forcing of the GHGs. We have seen periods where natural processes put GHGs into the atmosphere at nearly the rate that we are putting them into the atmosphere. And these periods have seen rapid and extreme climate change, with major extinctions occuring at the same time. There is not rational reason to expect a differant result just because we are the agent putting GHGs into the atmosphere this time.
     
  10. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

    The "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. While the two climate oscillations have similar spatial climate fingerprints, they have very different behavior in time. Fisheries scientist Steven Hare coined the term "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) in 1996 while researching connections between Alaska salmon production cycles and Pacific climate (his dissertation topic with advisor Robert Francis). Two main characteristics distinguish PDO from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): first, 20th century PDO "events" persisted for 20-to-30 years, while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months; second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics - the opposite is true for ENSO. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: "cool" PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while "warm" PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Shoshiro Minobe has shown that 20th century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities, one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years.
    http://ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/(/home/alexeyk/mydata/TSsvd.in)readfile/.SST/.PDO/

    Hardly rocket science.
     

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