Get Ready For The GOP Civil War

Discussion in 'Politics' started by NATO AIR, Oct 25, 2004.


    NATO AIR Senior Member

    Jun 25, 2004
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    USS Abraham Lincoln
    Pres. Bush's upcoming election victory will mean two things for America. Meaningful, effective victory in the war on terrorism in the next few years to come, as well as a historic opportunity for pres. bush to recast much of government in conservative tones, much as democrats did in the 60's with liberalism. A large question looms over Pres. Bush's grand plans for his 2nd term and his party's future beyond 2008 however. Will the gap between moderate Republicans and conservative Republicans widen into a schism?

    The GOP holds the near total loyalty of 15-20% of the population, primarily those who see themselves as members of the religious right and deep social conservatism. Their slim majority in the election is the product of centrists and moderates who mistrust Democratic leaders, policies and special interests. Perhaps even more traditional Democrats will make their way to the GOP due to security issues and the argument over gay marriage. This is good news now for the GOP, but trouble in the future, because it will breed conflict between moderates and conservatives.

    For one, Republican moderates in the Congress will begin to demand a much greater voice in a 2nd Bush term. They will have completed their promise of loyalty to the president during his reelection campaign and will expect more than a few bones tossed their way.... they will want substantial say and control over Republican policy on matters and in areas where they have distinct, profound differences and disagreements with the conservative president and movement.

    These moderates will be joined and loudly echoed by a slew of moderate Republicans prepping and preening for a 2008 race to suceed the president. Men like Rudy Gualiani, George Pataki, Milt Romney and John McCain (among quite a high number of others) will begin to distance themselves from unpopular or overly conservative programs,ideas and efforts. They will have their eyes on the Democratic voters and the independents, whose votes in primary elections and the national contest in 2008 they will wisely covet and campaign for.

    Yet the conservative movement will do its best to hold the President to his promises and plans. They will not go quietly into the night and allow the moderates to walk off with the power. In Congress though, they will be a distinct minority against a likely coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans on many issues. What happens, and who triumphs, between these two sides, will do much to determine the future and makeup of the GOP.

    The Republicans will have a powerful chance to develop a lasting majority in American politics through their actions from 2004-2008. A moderate Republican presidental candidate could concieveably win the presidental election in a landslide, simply because his policies lie in the centre and lean right, not primarily based in the right and leaning towards the centere. His Democratic opponnent would have no choice but the suicide of turning left for more votes, a quick ticket to electoral oblivion.

    Will the Republicans lean further right? What would that mean? Or would it be possible for them to lean towards centrist positions and co-opt the Democrats at nearly every turn, banishing the Democrats to the edges of the centre and into the abyss of the left? The answer will determine Republican chances for winning every presidental election and having a governable majority for decades to come.

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