GDP Crash: Goldman, Atlanta & NY Feds See Q1 GDP Tumble Below 1%

[McRocket]

'While the market was delighted on Thursday to see a delayed Q4 GDP print of 2.6%, which came in well above the expected 2.2% consensus number, we warned that "while Q4 was clearly a stronger than expected print, the real question is what happens in Q1, when most banks and nowcasts expect GDP to print below 1%, in some cases concerningly so."

Moments ago we got confirmation of precisely this, when following the latest dismal economic data including a 2 year low in the manufacturing ISM, a miss in UMich Consumer Sentiment, and a near record plunge in personal spending, Goldman launched its Q1 GDP tracking estimate at a paltry +0.9%. This forecast, as Goldman's chief economist Hatzius said, "reflects an expected drag from inventories, sequentially slower consumption growth, a decline in residential investment, and a four-tenths drag from the government shutdown."

It wasn't just Goldman, because at roughly the same time, the NY Fed's GDP Nowcast, which was launched to counter the Atlanta Fed's famous GDP tracker, crumbled from 1.22% last week (and 2.17% as recently as a month ago), to a stunning 0.88%, as a result of big declines in Personal Consumption, Housing Starts, Wholesale Inventories, and others.'

And speaking of the Atlanta Fed, it also just released its latest Q1 GDP nowcast, and it's a doozy, with the initial estimate coming just barely positive at only 0.3%, to wit:

GDP Crash: Goldman, Atlanta & NY Feds See Q1 GDP Tumble Below 1%

Nowcasting Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta


I have personally never seen the GDPNow that low in it's 7+ year history.

Early days...but UGLY so far.

 

[JGalt]

Oh Joy. Is it time to start loading up the magazines and eating my liberal neighbors?

 

[Pete7469]

 

[OldLady]

Pete, economists are predicting a slow down to about 2% GDP growth and a possible recession next year. Don't take it personally--be ready.

 

[Pete7469]

Pete, economists are predicting a slow down to about 2% GDP growth and a possible recession next year. Don't take it personally--be ready.

I assume there will be corrections, peaks and valleys.

What disgusts me is when people delight in predictions of doom because they hate Trump.

We had 8 years of stagnation and malaise because of deliberate action taken by the meat puppet faggot and no one who opposed him was happy about it. Just happy it was over, and it was immediately after the election when the markets exploded.



.

 

[JGalt]

I'm raising the bullshit flag. "Economists" have been saying stuff like that ever since the day he declared his candidacy...

Trump economy: False predictions from the left

• “Donald Trump’s first gift to the world will be another financial crisis.” — Headline in the U.K. Independent. “He gives every impression that he will soon be hustling America — and possibly the entire world — in the direction of another catastrophic financial crisis.”

• “I have no stocks. I advise people not to invest in the stock market, not now. Way too dangerous.” — Filmmaker Michael Moore, August 2017.

• “It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? A first-pass answer is never… So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight.” — Paul Krugman of the New York Times the day after the election.

• “Trump’s domestic policies would lead to recession.” — Mitt Romney, March 2016.

• “If Trump wins we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks — and a likely crash in the broader market [if Trump becomes president].” —Eric Zitzewitz, former chief economist at the IMF, November 2016.

• “Under Trump, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States.” — Former Clinton and Obama chief economist Larry Summers, June 2016

• “Trump would likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession.” —Simon Johnson, MIT economics professor, in The New York Times, November 2016.

• “Citigroup: A Trump Victory in November Could Cause a Global Recession” — Bloomberg Financial News headline, August 2016.

• “I have never seen an election in which the markets have so strong of a view as to what was good and bad about the outcome. And what you saw was the markets rallying yesterday because of the FBI thing on Sunday. And the reason I mention this particularly is if the likely event happens and Trump wins you will see a market crash of historic proportions, I think … The markets are terrified of him.” — Steve Rattner, MSNBC economic guru, October 2016.

• “Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House. New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.” — Ben White, Politico, October 2016.

• “A President Trump Could Destroy the World Economy” — Title of a Washington Post editorial, October 2016

 

[Pete7469]

Isn't Occasional Cortex a "Economic's Major"?

If you need more proof than Paul Krugman to prove some "economists" are biased and malevolently stupid, it's AOC.

.

 

[BlackFlag]

'While the market was delighted on Thursday to see a delayed Q4 GDP print of 2.6%, which came in well above the expected 2.2% consensus number, we warned that "while Q4 was clearly a stronger than expected print, the real question is what happens in Q1, when most banks and nowcasts expect GDP to print below 1%, in some cases concerningly so."

Moments ago we got confirmation of precisely this, when following the latest dismal economic data including a 2 year low in the manufacturing ISM, a miss in UMich Consumer Sentiment, and a near record plunge in personal spending, Goldman launched its Q1 GDP tracking estimate at a paltry +0.9%. This forecast, as Goldman's chief economist Hatzius said, "reflects an expected drag from inventories, sequentially slower consumption growth, a decline in residential investment, and a four-tenths drag from the government shutdown."

It wasn't just Goldman, because at roughly the same time, the NY Fed's GDP Nowcast, which was launched to counter the Atlanta Fed's famous GDP tracker, crumbled from 1.22% last week (and 2.17% as recently as a month ago), to a stunning 0.88%, as a result of big declines in Personal Consumption, Housing Starts, Wholesale Inventories, and others.'

And speaking of the Atlanta Fed, it also just released its latest Q1 GDP nowcast, and it's a doozy, with the initial estimate coming just barely positive at only 0.3%, to wit:

GDP Crash: Goldman, Atlanta & NY Feds See Q1 GDP Tumble Below 1%

Nowcasting Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta


I have personally never seen the GDPNow that low in it's 7+ year history.

Early days...but UGLY so far.

Damn. And the Atlanta fed is usually predicting a million+ % GDP growth.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Economies go through natural cycles, and often times these cycles are distorted by central banks and to a much lesser extent politicians.

This economy is long overdue for a recession and we have a central bank that has tried to reverse prime the economic pump with QE and ZIRP policies since 2009. They have delayed the inevitable while hurting seniors on fixed income, grossly inflating asset prices (inflation) and widening the wealth/income gap. BTW- all of this is done with the consent of B.O., Trump and congress.

When it all begins to unravel (some believe the first leg down has already started) millions of people’s finances will be wiped out.

You’ve been warned!

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Pete7469, post: 2191896

What disgusts me is when people delight in predictions of doom because they hate Trump.

No we hate liars and the idiots that believe them.

Donald Trump Says Tax Plan Could Lift GDP Growth to 6%

Donald Trump Says Tax Plan Could Lift GDP Growth to 6%


All we got from Trump’s tax cuts was two strong quarters nowhere near 6% and a massive infusion of debt from the loss of revenue from those that didn’t need a tax cut.

Now you whine bitch and moan about what you surmise is unfair hatred for your orange buffoon.

Your goon is a failure by his own words.

Trumpo hated Obama and milked racist hate to get elected by launching his serious run for the White House by embracing the birther movement as his pet project.

What’s wrong with hating a hater. He started it?


Trump promised economic growth better than Obama's. It didn't happen
1 day ago · Q4 GDP increases 2.6%, jobless claims 225,000 vs ... "2018 will be the high-water mark for growth in the Trump



You see Trump boasted how much greater he would be than Obama for the economy.

Well he isn’t going to be. He likely will end up worse as the debt pukes up under lower GDP. That’s not celebrating doomsday you morons, that is understanding what reality is.

You should try it.

 

[OldLady]

Pete, economists are predicting a slow down to about 2% GDP growth and a possible recession next year. Don't take it personally--be ready.

I assume there will be corrections, peaks and valleys.

What disgusts me is when people delight in predictions of doom because they hate Trump.

We had 8 years of stagnation and malaise because of deliberate action taken by the meat puppet faggot and no one who opposed him was happy about it. Just happy it was over, and it was immediately after the election when the markets exploded.



.

Yeah, I hope they're wrong about the recession thing, but the less than 1% growth and the throttle back in consumer spending, new housing starts, etc., is actual facts, not projections. Well there is another full month before the quarter is over. Maybe things will improve. January and February are always pretty slow, I heard.

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Pete7469, post: 21918968

We had 8 years of stagnation and malaise because of deliberate action taken by the meat puppet faggot and no one who opposed him was happy about it.

You had roughly the same economic conditions and improvement under Obama’s final six years in office as we are getting under Trumpo. However if the forecasts for this year are correct Trumpo will not have a better four years than the worst four of Obama’s eight years.

 

[Zorro!]

'While the market was delighted on Thursday to see a delayed Q4 GDP print of 2.6%, which came in well above the expected 2.2% consensus number, we warned that "while Q4 was clearly a stronger than expected print, the real question is what happens in Q1, when most banks and nowcasts expect GDP to print below 1%, in some cases concerningly so."...but UGLY so far.

It was fake news.

THEY REALLY NEED TO STOP DRINKING THEIR OWN INK: Ignorant press ‘surprised’ by 3.2% blowout GDP number.

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Pete7469, post: 21918968

We had 8 years of stagnation and malaise because of deliberate action taken by the meat puppet faggot....

We still have 8 years of stagnation and malaise according to TrumpO himself.

"Obama is the first president in modern history not to have a single year of 3 percent growth," Trump said during an Oct. 28 campaign rally in Manchester, N.H.

Trump's claim about Obama's weak economic growth is limited

Trump will be the second president in modern history not to have a single year of 3 percent growth.

Why are TrumpOroids celebrating Q1 2019 coming in at 3.2 percent? Obama had many quarters higher than that.

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Zorro!, post: 22277857

It was fake news.

THEY REALLY NEED TO STOP DRINKING THEIR OWN INK: Ignorant press ‘surprised’ by 3.2% blowout GDP number.

You are trafficking the fake news.

This 3.2% quarter is nothing to crow about actually.

When it occurred under Obama it was anemic according to TrumpORoids.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Pete7469, post: 21918968

We had 8 years of stagnation and malaise because of deliberate action taken by the meat puppet faggot....

We still have 8 years of stagnation and malaise according to TrumpO himself.

"Obama is the first president in modern history not to have a single year of 3 percent growth," Trump said during an Oct. 28 campaign rally in Manchester, N.H.

Trump's claim about Obama's weak economic growth is limited

Trump will be the second president in modern history not to have a single year of 3 percent growth.

Why are TrumpOroids celebrating Q1 2019 coming in at 3.2 percent? Obama had many quarters higher than that.

View attachment 258216

Why are TrumpOroids celebrating Q1 2019 coming in at 3.2 percent?

Because it was better than Obama's Q1 2011 coming in at -1.0%?

 

[NotfooledbyW]

I asked: Why are TrumpOroids celebrating Q1 2019 coming in at 3.2 percent?

Toddsterpatriot, post: 22278843

Because it was better than Obama's Q1 2011 coming in at -1.0%?

Just one more dishonest way to declare TrumpO’s economy better than Obama’s knowing full well that overall it is not.

Comparing Q1 2011 to Q1 2019 is a meaningless analysis of the data. Economic growth does not repeat itself in a chronological pattern.

 

[Manonthestreet]

Where's the recession we we're promised at beginning of thread

 

[leftwinger]

Where's the recession we we're promised at beginning of thread

They don't come back when wrong. They run to another thread to run another story to bash non-Dems. I dont see reccession conditions like 2008-16 in my work or local area. Car sales may be a bit slow? Gas back over $3/gal suddenly.

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Manonthestreet, post: 22280059

Where's the recession we we're promised at beginning of thread

No one is promised a recession:

GDP Crash: Goldman, Atlanta & NY Feds See Q1 GDP Tumble Below 1%

The Atlanta FED a week ago had their forecast at 2.8. They steadily upgrade as numbers come in.

And one quarter of forecast does not a recession make.

Quit with the melodrama and lies.