Gallup is Off Kilter!

[courseofhistory]

Gallup is off kilter.

"They're [Gallup] just so out of kilter at the moment," said Simon Jackman, a Stanford University political science professor and author of a book on polling. "Either they're doing something really wacky or the other 18 pollsters out there are colluding, or something."

Gallup's editor in chief, Frank Newport, said he didn't know why his results didn't line up with others. Nor did he seem unnerved by the disparity.

"We try to keep our eyes on the boat and do the best job possible," he said. "We're going over some additional tweaks with our methodologists to make sure we're on top of it."

 

[decker]

Gallup is off kilter.

"They're [Gallup] just so out of kilter at the moment," said Simon Jackman, a Stanford University political science professor and author of a book on polling. "Either they're doing something really wacky or the other 18 pollsters out there are colluding, or something."

Gallup's editor in chief, Frank Newport, said he didn't know why his results didn't line up with others. Nor did he seem unnerved by the disparity.

"We try to keep our eyes on the boat and do the best job possible," he said. "We're going over some additional tweaks with our methodologists to make sure we're on top of it."

what worries me though is does not say it wrong. just saying he tweak it to see for sure.

so romney might still be that far ahead in their poll come monday.

i hope though that simon jackman proved right

 

[elvis]

It's tied.

 

[decker]

It's tied.

well i guess romney ahead but i just hope by not that much although romney supporters differ of course in their hopes

 

[freedombecki]

Gallup is off kilter.

"They're [Gallup] just so out of kilter at the moment," said Simon Jackman, a Stanford University political science professor and author of a book on polling. "Either they're doing something really wacky or the other 18 pollsters out there are colluding, or something."

Gallup's editor in chief, Frank Newport, said he didn't know why his results didn't line up with others. Nor did he seem unnerved by the disparity.

"We try to keep our eyes on the boat and do the best job possible," he said. "We're going over some additional tweaks with our methodologists to make sure we're on top of it."

Maybe Gallup's people have to take lie detector tests now and then to insure truth in polling, COH.

 

[decker]

Gallup is off kilter.

"They're [Gallup] just so out of kilter at the moment," said Simon Jackman, a Stanford University political science professor and author of a book on polling. "Either they're doing something really wacky or the other 18 pollsters out there are colluding, or something."

Gallup's editor in chief, Frank Newport, said he didn't know why his results didn't line up with others. Nor did he seem unnerved by the disparity.

"We try to keep our eyes on the boat and do the best job possible," he said. "We're going over some additional tweaks with our methodologists to make sure we're on top of it."

Maybe Gallup's people have to take lie detector tests now and then to insure truth in polling, COH.

well in the end if his polling proves true then no doubt great new for gop and well anyway panic stations for me.

 

[Darkwind]

They're preparing the liberals for the bad news in November.

It won't do for them to show Obama ahead right up to election day; only to have him shellacked like the baseboard of grandma's living room.

 

[Two Thumbs]

It's only off kilter when it showed Mitt having a lead.

But when it didn't, it was dead on the best out there.


funny how that works

 

[decker]

It's only off kilter when it showed Mitt having a lead.

But when it didn't, it was dead on the best out there.


funny how that works

it might not be off kilter who knows only on election day we will know deep down

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Gallup is likely fairly accurate with regard to its National polling.

But the presidency isn’t determined by popular vote, it’s determined by the EC.

Currently the president would win re-election with 277 EC votes, based on the states where he’s ahead in the polls.

 

[decker]

They're preparing the liberals for the bad news in November.

It won't do for them to show Obama ahead right up to election day; only to have him shellacked like the baseboard of grandma's living room.

maybe true but a loss is a loss whatever the margin. . so hurt still the same

 

[decker]

Gallup is likely fairly accurate with regard to its National polling.

But the presidency isn’t determined by popular vote, it’s determined by the EC.

Currently the president would win re-election with 277 EC votes, based on the states where he’s ahead in the polls.

that very close margin .what worries me won,t take much for romney to be ahead in ec .

ohio,wi,pa,nev and mi are last firewall chance for obama

 

[mamooth]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

 

[Politico]

There are going to be a lot of folks reaching for the Preparation H come election day.

 

[decker]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

well might be true. deep down whatever these polls say, most important one is election one

president got to go all out in ohio,wi,ma,pa and nev. best hope yet. i think fi,co,va and nc are all romney deep down.

 

[freedombecki]

Gallup is off kilter.

Maybe Gallup's people have to take lie detector tests now and then to insure truth in polling, COH.

well in the end if his polling proves true then no doubt great new for gop and well anyway panic stations for me.

Not sure what that means, decker, but for America it means an end into the foray of Marxism as principal in Washington and not the founder's Bill of Rights as well as their election to put power into the people's hands through their local states and counties, and not the Fed. Recent pushes in Washington have been for total government takeover and zero state's rights. This is incongruent with America's proud inheritance of freedom.

The charming thing about being a boomer for me was now that the era is gone, it was kinda nice growing up in post WWII times when people's attitudes were unified as each other's best allies, learned from our returning fighting men who had respect for each other by being saved by another American who jumped into the line of fire to save his buds from decimation by enemy bullets and mortars.

People today don't have that sense of oneness any longer, except for a brief couple of weeks after 9/11 until Hillary Clinton held up an asinine sign saying "Bush Gnu." That was the lie that set off more hatred in the nation than an atomic bomb, and we are no longer one people sympathetic in tragedy with one another. Hillary traded in national unity for a pile of crap, and her friends didn't call her on the carpet for it, they celebrated and exulted in the lie.

 

[skookerasbil]

Gallup is off kilter.

"They're [Gallup] just so out of kilter at the moment," said Simon Jackman, a Stanford University political science professor and author of a book on polling. "Either they're doing something really wacky or the other 18 pollsters out there are colluding, or something."

Gallup's editor in chief, Frank Newport, said he didn't know why his results didn't line up with others. Nor did he seem unnerved by the disparity.

"We try to keep our eyes on the boat and do the best job possible," he said. "We're going over some additional tweaks with our methodologists to make sure we're on top of it."

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder




But maybe not

The k00ks best buckle up their chinstraps. Here's a preview of you watching your election results roll in.................

 

[decker]

Maybe Gallup's people have to take lie detector tests now and then to insure truth in polling, COH.

well in the end if his polling proves true then no doubt great new for gop and well anyway panic stations for me.

Not sure what that means, decker, but for America it means an end into the foray of Marxism as principal in Washington and not the founder's Bill of Rights as well as their election to put power into the people's hands through their local states and counties, and not the Fed. Recent pushes in Washington have been for total government takeover and zero state's rights. This is incongruent with America's proud inheritance of freedom.

The charming thing about being a boomer for me was now that the era is gone, it was kinda nice growing up in post WWII times when people's attitudes were unified as each other's best allies, learned from our returning fighting men who had respect for each other by being saved by another American who jumped into the line of fire to save his buds from decimation by enemy bullets and mortars.

People today don't have that sense of oneness any longer, except for a brief couple of weeks after 9/11 until Hillary Clinton held up an asinine sign saying "Bush Gnu." That was the lie that set off more hatred in the nation than an atomic bomb, and we are no longer one people sympathetic in tragedy with one another. Hillary traded in national unity for a pile of crap, and her friends didn't call her on the carpet for it, they celebrated and exulted in the lie.

i respect your view and strong feeings . I understand it your country deep down. I don,t agree with your views on clinton but i understand where your coming from.

Look gop are ahead and if romney win then i wish him all the best and hope america come together after all this

 

[toomuchtime_]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

Gallup is likely very accurate, as are the other major polling organizations, given their assumptions about what constitutes a likely voter. There are three kinds of voters, committed voters, leaners and undecideds. Among committed voters, by most of the analyses I've seen, Romney supporters are more enthusiastic than Obama supporters, so it is likely Romney will have an edge in this vote. The big question is will those who lean toward a candidate but are not committed take the trouble to vote and how many undecideds will remain undecided and stay home. Defining a likely voter is to an extent estimating the voter's level of enthusiasm for the candidate.

 

[decker]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

Gallup is likely very accurate, as are the other major polling organizations, given their assumptions about what constitutes a likely voter. There are three kinds of voters, committed voters, leaners and undecideds. Among committed voters, by most of the analyses I've seen, Romney supporters are more enthusiastic than Obama supporters, so it is likely Romney will have an edge in this vote. The big question is will those who lean toward a candidate but are not committed take the trouble to vote and how many undecideds will remain undecided and stay home. Defining a likely voter is to an extent estimating the voter's level of enthusiasm for the candidate.

that is fair point. not sure gallup is right but romney does have edge. it turn out and thing worries me is gop really hate obama and want rid of him. worried dems won,t get turn out on same level this time and that will hurt obama chances