Gallup 7-Day Tracking Poll Trending Back Toward Other Polls: Romney Now Up Only 5

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by mascale, Oct 23, 2012.

  1. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    The Gallup Tracking Poll now proves that in fact it is a statistical event. The Seven-Day tracking poll is trending back toward Obama, like other National Polls. The October Romney Surge has diminished, already. Romney is now a likely voter favorite, 51% of the time(?)! Obama is now a likely voter favorite, 46% of the time(?)!

    Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

    People like to say that "Time Flies," just like a bird, or a plane, or. . . ! "Once Upon A Time," however, is probably different--even in poll reporting(?)! Many have suggested that Gallup Seven-Day Tracking was more like that, in recent reports.

    The seven day tracking of all registered voters still has Romney up by one.

    Mostly, the overnights suggest that Romney blew it again, in the third debate. Surprise! Surprise! To RNC! Apparently the Demorats still have nukes. . . .that Republicans can't seem to find. . . .again!

    Someone may eventually suggest that Bush-Cheney also had that problem, in the matter of Iraq(!)

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
    (White Eyes Now have less smoke and mirrors, now reported: According to The Two Stupid Guys from RNC. . . .Way Too Stupid!)
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2012
  2. decker
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    decker Senior Member

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    well hardly can say surge gone. still 5% up which is still bad for obama if true

    i just hope that polls can look better for president in next week or so. he badly needs so mo at moment
     
  3. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    Mostly in the Gallup October Tracking, debate events seem not to have much influence. Obama started October relatively even. That was probably a reaction to the first debate. Starting on October 15, Obama support deteriorates, even as the campaign is improving. Romney starts improving, suddenly making points. The Embassy attack, however, had been well over a month before. The impact of any ads in the Southern area polling could be an explanation for the mood shift. That could also be an impact of a lack of advertising in the region. Possibly Obama-Biden needed to support their base, and did not, with more ads in the region as a whole!?!

    Widely elsewhere noted, Obama consistently wins in the East polling, Midwest polling, and West polling. Then there is the South polling, which is actually majority black in many of the counties. That compares with anywhere else in the United States. The pollling is lopsided pro-Romney, however.

    Liberals are traditionally famous for their regard for the black vote. It is widely known to be taken for granted. Likely more attention would have been better been directed at the South, and then let the polling results, even in the South, further demoralize RNC--somehow magically re-ignited in early October. The Hispanic vote likely explains other region outcomes. It is not well known inCalifornia, for example, even if there is a Republican Party anymore. That state could easily find Blue House districts in places never before GOP, this time out! A more Southern-directed Obama campaign may have actually been more helpful, than anyone really will ever know!

    Statistics is about methodology. The Gallup polling has lots of separate questions, likely in mostly English, possibly at the brain surgeon level--which allegedly explore voter "intensity." Other factors may actually be in play in Gallup polling, reliant on older ways.

    Oct to Oct

    Debate Night Below (Obama wins here)
    16-22 Obama 46, Romney 51
    15-21 Obama 45, Romney 51
    14-20 Obama 45, Romney 51
    13-19 Obama 45, Romney 51
    12-18 Obama 45, Romney 51
    11-17 Obama 45, Romney 52
    Debate Night Below (Obama Wins Here)
    10-16 Obama 45, Romney 51
    9-15 Obama 46, Romney 50
    8-14 Obama 47, Romney 49
    7-13 Obama 47, Romney 49
    6-12 Obama 47, Romney 49
    Debate Night Below (Biden Wins Here)
    5-11 Obama 47, Romney 49
    4-10 Obama 47, Romney 48
    3-9 Obama 48, Romney 48
    2-8 Obama 47, Romney 49
    1-7 Obama 48, Romney 48
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2012
  4. decker
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    decker Senior Member

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    major promblem for obama this time is turn out. guy on bbc news 24 said gop really hate obama even if they don,t love romney so will go out and vote. dems like obama but not sure turn out be same as 2008 levels.

    dems need push harder then they ever have before at getting people out to vote
     
  5. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    One way to cut into the Conservative GOP voting base is with a strong showing in foreign affairs. Romney, instead, has become an internet laughing stock. Romney-Ryan are not even up on defense issues dating back to 1917(?)!

    Usually that is hard to pull off, in so short a time-frame. CNN insta-poll found Obama to be the Foreign Policy debate winner. The CNN insta-poll also found Obama a lopsidedly decisive Foreign Policy debate winner. What RNC was using to create support for their Two Stupid Guys, Way Too Stupid: Was suddenly turned around. . . .more or less like liberals may have just suggested!

    Poll: Decisive win for Obama in final debate - CBS News

    Next come the newscasts, analysts and commedians. Instead of just advertising, there is likely now being directed an assault on Core Conservative Agena: Just as the outcome of the Romney poor showing. Conservatives are now shown weak on defense, anti-terrorism, and on anything other than Obama Foreign Policy, and Defense. "Whatever he said," turns the "Obama Concept into a "favorable" rating on leadership capability among Conservatives: Likely more than any ad campaign can do. Conservatives tend to be swayed by ratings like that.

    "Fantacize-Along-With-Fox-TV-News" even admits to being more concerned with "ratings(?)m over actual content(?). . . .or something!

    On the one hand, debate one created a decidedly lopsided Romney advantage. Then Debates Two and Three stemmed the October Romney surge. That leaves Debate Number Four as the "other hand" springboard into the final two weeks.

    Firstly, Secretary Clinton not only took the blame for the embassy attack assessments, but alluded to "Security Professionals" in explaining how the assessments of the embassy attack were created. She might as well have said that General Petraeus was in charge, to Conservatives in the South. Indirectly, Obama likely even gets credit for turning Pakistan into an anti-Taliban hotbed, even though the Pakistani little girl took the actual hit. Pakistan support of the Taliban has been a foreign policy problem, up until the recent few weeks. Now it is way less, and Obama is in Office. Romney is left with, "Whatever He Said!"

    News events may now be starting to get their play, in the Conservative GOP base. That could turn the Gallup Tracking findings: Way more than would be expected.

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
    (White Eyes now shown to have less smoke and mirrors than in 1917: Means That Lands of Many Nations can be regained--maybe as early as Tuesday--like they say at RNC(?)!"
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2012
  6. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    ahh, more self soothing by discouraged liberals....:lol:
     
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  7. hazlnut
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    hazlnut Gold Member

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    Remember, according to the GOP, Rape is God's will.
     
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  8. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    You really need to take some anti-troll meds....
     
  9. candycorn
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    candycorn Alis volat propriis

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    Anyone else seen JRK lately?
     
  10. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    Gallup is down to 4 yesterday.

    There are two problems with Gallup. One is that they've been in a long pissing contest with Obama's DoJ because a whistle-blower inside Gallup dropped a dime on them for overcharging the government for services.

    Margin of error: DOJ sues Gallup - Mackenzie Weinger - POLITICO.com

    The other is that their sample method assumes the electorate is going to be 79% white, when in 2004, it was only 74% and most believe it will only be about 72% this time. This, incidently is not the method that Gallup uses to determine presidential approval, where 51% actually approve of the job Obama is doing.
     
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